The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Virginia Tech 36%, North Carolina 44%
Win out 12% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
Virginia's chance to win each game left, from our model: California 79%, North Carolina 44%, Virginia Tech 36%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 12th in the ACC · 2-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Beau Pribula 1,587 · Rushing Jekail Middlebrook 513 · Receiving Dashawn Martin 372 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | #56 | #44 | −4✓ +22 | NC State | W 34-8 119 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Pribula 155 · Rush Pribula 110 · Rec Brown 58 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | #54 | #247 | −47.5✓ +8.5 | Norfolk State | W 59-3 127 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Pribula 162 · Rush Davis 107 · Rec Gibson 36 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #51 | #165 | −10.5✗ −21.5 | West Virginia (N) | L 27-38 138 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Pribula 197 · Rush Middlebrook 75 · Rec Davis 51 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #50 | #47 | −19.5✓ +19.5 | Delaware | W 42-3 142 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Pribula 279 · Rush Davis 30 · Rec Flores 113 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #38 | #86 | −1.5✗ −32.5 | @Florida State | L 7-38 137 | 3-2 | 1-1 | Pass Pribula 168 · Rush Middlebrook 65 · Rec Robinson 41 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #53 | #118 | −14✗ −11 | Syracuse | W 28-25 137 | 4-2 | 2-1 | Pass Pribula 119 · Rush Middlebrook 95 · Rec Martin 48 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #61 | #33 | +10= | @SMU | L 13-23 123 | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Pribula 137 · Rush Middlebrook 59 · Rec Martin 35 |
| 8 | Oct 23 | #60 | #53 | −2.5✗ −5.5 | Duke | L 16-19 127 Loud | 4-4 | 2-3 | Pass Pribula 158 · Rush Middlebrook 117 · Rec Rogers 65 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #63 | #24 | +13.5✗ −30.5 | @Wake Forest | L 7-51 136 Roaring | 4-5 | 2-4 | Pass Pribula 212 · Rush Beebe 9 · Rec Martin 119 |
| 10 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #75 | #136 | California | time TBA · ACC Network79% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | North Carolina | time TBA44% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | +1.5 | @Virginia Tech | time TBA36% to win | |||||
Win chances are our model for Virginia, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Virginia: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Wake Forest | L 7-51 | 330 | 1 | 26:17 | -0.096 | 35.9% | 1.11 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 23 | Duke | L 16-19 | 353 | 2 | 38:47 | -0.083 | 33.8% | 1.24 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @SMU | L 13-23 | 258 | 1 | 29:01 | +0.116 | 42.6% | 0.96 | |
| Oct 10 | Syracuse | W 28-25 | 288 | 0 | 24:53 | +0.248 | 46.4% | 1.14 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Florida State | L 7-38 | 205 | 0 | 28:09 | -0.290 | 28.8% | 0.89 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Delaware | W 42-3 | 556 | 1 | 36:11 | +0.310 | 44.8% | 1.40 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | West Virginia | L 27-38 | 354 | 0 | 33:07 | +0.155 | 38.9% | 1.17 | |
| Sep 11 | Norfolk State | W 59-3 | 466 | 1 | 28:14 | +0.407 | 60.9% | 1.20 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | NC State | W 34-8 | 413 | 0 | 38:03 | +0.273 | 47.9% | 1.06 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 358 | 0.7 | +0.115 | 42.2% | 1.13 | ||||
Virginia's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
With where we are [...] I don't know if putting another quarterback in there solves your problems
<1% now
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Virginia · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 7%; 5 wins 39%; 6 wins 42%; 7 wins 12%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Virginia is the program that waited 122 years for its first 11-win season — then beat an SEC team in the Gator Bowl to seal it, the year a coach on the brink became the best in school history.
Cavalier fans spent years hearing their program treated as an afterthought at the bottom of the ACC. They say 2025, eleven wins, a bowl scalp of an SEC team, was the answer to everyone who assumed…
Virginia · Game-day weather
Typical at Scott Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 91 to 93
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 113 at noon, 112 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Virginia is the program whose football identity is bound to Jeffersonian tradition and the patience of a school that has been a school since 1819.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
67th percentile among FBS programs
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Virginia · 2026