Next game: vs California
Virginia’s best edge on California is running
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Virginia offense against California defense
California offense against Virginia defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.19 EPA/play | 7 | 9 | 139 / 212 | 65.6 | 1587 #69 FBS | 7.5 | 14 #32 FBS | 3 | 147.4 | 31 | 54.4 | 6.7 | 9.8 | |
Yards by week → ScramblerMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. Impact starter — 212 pass attempts and 96 carries in 9 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week. This week's matchup — QB Pribula extends plays on the move until something opens up. Brousseau is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage31.2% 83th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Plays like View Beau Pribula's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.16 EPA/play | 10 | 3 | 24 / 34 | 70.6 | 282 | 8.3 | 3 | 0 | 169.4 | — | 39.5 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.26 EPA/play | 21 | 8 | 105 | 513 #73 FBS | 4.9 | 4 | 29 | 12.5 | 8.7 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. Starter — 105 carries and 12 catches in 8 games, more touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Middlebrook does a little of everything without one standout trait. Mohammed is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Yards / carry5.2 bottom 48th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception6.5 bottom 35th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jekail Middlebrook's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.07 EPA/play | 25 | 9 | 55 | 240 | 4.4 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 14.5 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 55 carries and 8 catches in 9 games. Fewer touches a game than most FBS running backs who play every week. This week's matchup — RB Davis does a little of everything without one standout trait. Mohammed is the one who just keeps getting the ball, series after series. Season receipt Yards / carry4.8 bottom 32th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception12.8 97th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Xay Davis's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.09 EPA/play | — | 9 | 36 | 183 | 5.1 | 2 | 47 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| +0.26 EPA/play | 3 | 6 | 28 | 141 | 5.0 | 0 | 21 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.28 EPA/play | 18 | 9 | 26 | 372 | 14.3 | 6 #23 FBS | 47 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. 26 catches and 1 carry in 9 games. Fewer catches a game than most FBS receivers who play every week. This week's matchup — WR Martin moves the chains on third down. Grayes is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception11.3 bottom 27th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate23.1% 98th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Dashawn Martin's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.57 EPA/play | 5 | 5 | 18 | 204 | 11.3 | 2 | 52 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiver· Boom-or-bustReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Kameron Courtney's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.94 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 14 | 176 | 12.6 | 2 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Gibson moves the chains on third down. Grayes is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception15.7 74th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions EPA / play (adj)0.9 93th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jacquon Gibson's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.63 EPA/play | 11 | 4 | 12 | 158 | 13.2 | 1 | 26 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Flores moves the chains on third down. Grayes is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception12.9 bottom 43th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume12 bottom 13th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Rico Flores's full player page | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.71 EPA/play | 89 | 6 | 15 | 143 | 9.5 | 1 | 27 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View John Rogers's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.23 EPA/play | 13 | 7 | 8 | 139 | 17.4 | 1 | 74 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.21 EPA/play | 9 | 5 | 13 | 127 | 9.8 | 0 | 25 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 5 of 10 games this season · freshman · 4-star, 2022 class View Dakota Twitty's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.10 EPA/play | 84 | 5 | 7 | 112 | 16 | 1 | 29 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.67 EPA/play | 8 | 6 | 10 | 89 | 8.9 | 1 | 20 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Versatile End | 14 | 9 | 35 | 11 | 4.5 | 2 | 7 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. Impact starter — 35 tackles in 9 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate12.9% bottom 30th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Fisher Camac's full player page | |||||||
| Pressure Merchant | 16 | 9 | 29 | 11 | 8 #50 FBS | 5 #38 FBS | 9 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. Starter — 29 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 91th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Matthew Fobbs-White's full player page | |||||||
| Nose Anchor | 55 | 9 | 28 | 8 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Nose anchorThe heaviest frame on the interior. Sack production is intentionally not the point of this profile. Starter — 28 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 130 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Weight308 lb 80th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Anthony Britton's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 33 | 9 | 20 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 20 tackles in 9 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive linemen who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 121 of 180 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Nnanna Anyanwu's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 51 | 8 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Sichan John's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 44 | 7 | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate0.0% bottom 9th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Darrion Henry-Young's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 88 | 6 | 13 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kervins Choute's full player page | |||||||
| 85 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| 94 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 93 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 92 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 11 | 9 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 4.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 45 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Maddox Marcellus's full player page | |||||||||
| Thumper | 5 | 8 | 34 | 17 | 17 | 5.5 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
ThumperDownhill striker who fills the run lane and blitzes off the edge. 62 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.2% 87th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate5.9% 81th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kamren Robinson's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 32 | 9 | 29 | 16 | 13 | 1.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Landon Danley's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 13 | 7 | 29 | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume29 bottom 31th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles TFL rate3.4% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Myles Brown's full player page | |||||||||
| 26 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 45 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perimeter Tackler | 10 | 9 | 42 | 5 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. Starter — 42 tackles in 9 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume42 99th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jacobie Henderson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 1 | 9 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 39 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.1% bottom 36th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Montino Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 9 | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 9 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 9 of 10 games this season · freshman View Christian Ellis's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 30 | 7 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 29 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Ethan Minter's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 17 | 7 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Justin Ross's full player page | |||||||
| Centerfielder | 6 | 7 | 24 | 1 | 3 #16 FBS | 0 | 0 |
Centerfielder· Takeaway threatSingle-high range who erases the deep middle of the field. the kind of DB who takes it back the other way 116 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.2% bottom 32th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brandyn Hillman's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 8 | 16 | 4 | 0 | 2.5 | 1 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate25.0% 99th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Donavon Platt's full player page | |||||||
| Ball Hawk | 9 | 4 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Ball hawkReads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate27.3% 90th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Jermarian Jackson's full player page | |||||||
| Cover Corner | 20 | 5 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Cover cornerSteady in coverage; doesn't get beat deep and rarely gives up the big play. 138 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate20.0% 72th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Omillio Agard's full player page | |||||||
| 23 | 5 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| 4 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| 21 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 2 #51 FBS | 1 | 0 | |
| 7 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 41 | 9 | 8/11 | 72.7 | 28/28 | 52 | 47 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete | 38 | 9 | 40 | 2032 | 50.8 | 73 | 19 | 2 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.94 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 6 | 151 | 25.2 | 0 | 37 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -0.23 EPA/play | 13 | 7 | 8 | 55 | 6.9 | 0 | 13 |
Biggest plays from Virginia’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Virginia’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:14 · Duke down 3, takes the leadNate Sheppard finds Brody Keefe for a 28-yard touchdownDuke at Virginia, week 8Q4, 1:14 · Duke 19, Virginia 161:14Go-ahead touchdown for Duke with 1:14 left1:14Go-ahead touchdown for Duke with 1:14 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Duke with 1:14 leftN.Sheppard pass complete deep right to B.Keefe caught at UVA01, for 28 yards to the UVA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick no good▶Watch from this play
Q3, 0:12 · West Virginia breaks the tieMichael Hawkins Jr. finds DJ Epps for a 21-yard touchdownWest Virginia at Virginia, week 3Q3, 0:12 · West Virginia 28, Virginia 21▲24%West Virginia’s chance to win, 34% to 58%▲24%West Virginia’s chance to win, 34% to 58%M.Hawkins Jr. pass complete deep right to D.Epps caught at UVA00, for 21 yards to the UVA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q1, 10:59 · Duke tiedNate Sheppard runs 32 yards for a touchdownDuke at Virginia, week 8Q1, 10:59 · Duke 7, Virginia 0Duke opened the scoringDuke opened the scoringN.Sheppard rush middle for 32 yards gain to the UVA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
Q3, 7:09 · Virginia down 7, ties itBeau Pribula finds Jekail Middlebrook for a 1-yard touchdownWest Virginia at Virginia, week 3Q3, 7:09 · Virginia 21, West Virginia 21Virginia tied the game in the third quarterVirginia tied the game in the third quarterB.Pribula pass complete short left to J.Middlebrook caught at WVU01, for 1 yard to the WVU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q1, 2:37 · Virginia up 3Xavier Brown runs 1 yard for a touchdownNC State at Virginia, week 1Q1, 2:37 · Virginia 10, NC State 0▲16%Virginia’s chance to win, 75% to 91%▲16%Virginia’s chance to win, 75% to 91%X.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the NCS00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q3, 2:26 · Duke down 3Kamren Robinson intercepts Walker EgetDuke at Virginia, week 8Q3, 2:26 · Duke 10, Virginia 13▼14%Duke’s chance to win, 41% to 27%▼14%Duke’s chance to win, 41% to 27%W.Eget pass intercepted by K.Robinson at UVA24 K.Robinson return 0 yards to the UVA24 (J.Richardson)▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Virginia lost to West Virginia after being 81% to win; the closest win was against Syracuse, down to 12%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Virginia during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Virginia
through 9 games
2026 stat leaders · VirginiaMaddox Marcellus leads Virginia with 45 tackles through 9 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+22 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Virginia fields a capable run-heavy, methodical, ball-control offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Virginia reads strongest in explosive plays allowed (top 12%) and success rate allowed (top 43%); the crux lives in explosive plays, where Virginia sits at the 11th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Virginia is worth +5.4 points more at home than on the road.
Top third of FBS, 73rd percentile of 133 programs
60% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (29-19 home, 14-28 away). Interval ±3.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Virginia has beaten the number by +0.8 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±5.8 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Scott Stadium seats 61,500 and has averaged 71% full (43,943, 29 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 155 miles trip since 2018, the 1st-shortest of 135 FBS venues. Whatever the band above is picking up, it isn't the flight. For the home side it is genuinely home ground: 27% of the 2026 roster (30 of 113 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 57 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downJahmal Edrine is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- UnderdogJahmal Edrine produces at a notably higher rate when his team is an underdog than when favored, and his per-target value rises too, not just raw catches.
- Money downTrell Harris is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Garbage timeJ'mari Taylor does not see a usage spike in garbage time: his workload holds steady regardless of score.
- Short yardageJ'mari Taylor converts 3rd/4th-and-short at an elite rate.
- Deep threatSage Ennis is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
- CloserXay Davis gets meaningfully more work in the fourth quarter with a lead than his overall workload would predict.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Jekail Middlebrook and Xay Davis split the carries (103/157 vs 54/157) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Dashawn Martin (WR) and Dakota Twitty (TE) split the targets (39/57 vs 18/57) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Virginia actually scores
51st percentile quality, 39th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Virginia’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 31st percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 49th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Virginia hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
83rd percentile success on standard downs, 2nd on passing downs — a 81-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Virginia by half
1st-half offense ranks 62nd percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 31st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Virginia’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.12; 39th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.03. The widest gap came in week 3: 0.34 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Virginia’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Virginia’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.0% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 217-play sample) — mid-pack, 84 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Virginia’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (64.3% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 163-play sample) — mid-pack, 21 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Takeaways
Converting 19% of pass disruptions into takeaways — right in line with the ~18% league rate.
8 interceptions of 43 disrupted passes (35 deflected, 8 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
Winning the penalty battle: 43 penalties committed vs. 49 drawn on opponents, a 50-yard edge.
417 penalty yards committed vs. 467 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Virginia
Most similar programs · VirginiaReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Scott Stadium, Charlottesville, VA
Usual during the game around Nov 14: 52°, between 42° and 66° in about 7 in 10 games (31 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 63°, and 8 in 10 ran between 45° and 79° (50 of 51 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.