The rest of the season
One real test left: No. 24 SMU 66%
Win out 46% · expect 3.3 of 4 more wins
Wake Forest's chance to win each game left, from our model: Merrimack >99%, SMU 66%, Georgia Tech 96%, Duke 73%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Standing2nd in the ACC · 5-1 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Giovanni Lopez 2,176 · Rushing Ty Clark III 376 · Receiving Carlos Hernandez 856 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Wake Forest:athletics siteACCXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #81 | #58 | −27.5✗ −5.5 | Akron | W 38-16 137 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lopez 350 · Rush Clark III 105 · Rec Hernandez 165 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #79 | #117 | −2.5✗ −0.5 | @Purdue | W 38-36 150 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Lopez 225 · Rush Lopez 59 · Rec Hernandez 88 |
| 3 | Sep 18 | #80 | #7 | +20.5✓ +7.5 | Miami | L 20-33 130 | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass Lopez 312 · Rush Lawrence 27 · Rec Foley 118 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #73 | #43 | +11.5✓ +14.5 | @LouisvilleTop 25 win | W 30-27 135 Loud | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Lopez 225 · Rush Clark III 91 · Rec Hernandez 194 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #71 | #115 | −14.5✓ +39.5 | Stanford | W 57-3 134 | 4-1 | 2-1 | Pass Lopez 265 · Rush Lopez 88 · Rec Hernandez 87 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #58 | #45 | −4✓ +20 | @NC State | W 38-14 133 | 5-1 | 3-1 | Pass Lopez 303 · Rush Lawrence 46 · Rec Foley 156 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #41 | #83 | −10✓ +24 | @California | W 41-7 130 | 6-1 | 4-1 | Pass Lopez 267 · Rush Searcy 61 · Rec Barry 102 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #24 | #63 | −13.5✓ +30.5 | Virginia | W 51-7 136 Roaring | 7-1 | 5-1 | Pass Lopez 229 · Rush Searcy 78 · Rec Hernandez 136 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #16 | #225 | Merrimack | 3:30 pm ET · ACC Network>99% to win | ||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #17 | #33 | @SMU | time TBA66% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Georgia Tech | time TBA96% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Duke | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Wake Forest, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Wake Forest: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Virginia | W 51-7 | 538 | 0 | 33:43 | +0.517 | 55.4% | 1.33 | Blowout win |
| Oct 17 | @California | W 41-7 | 509 | 0 | 27:52 | +0.500 | 48.4% | 1.50 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | @NC State | W 38-14 | 387 | 0 | 31:57 | +0.223 | 44.4% | 1.27 | |
| Oct 3 | Stanford | W 57-3 | 519 | 1 | 28:46 | +0.555 | 62.1% | 1.22 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | @Louisville | W 30-27 | 402 | 1 | 26:26 | +0.210 | 43.5% | 1.23 | One-score win |
| Sep 18 | Miami | L 20-33 | 334 | 1 | 26:36 | +0.053 | 42.2% | 1.28 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Purdue | W 38-36 | 411 | 0 | 27:48 | +0.357 | 52.2% | 1.20 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 3 | Akron | W 38-16 | 559 | 0 | 29:24 | +0.478 | 42.6% | 1.53 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 457 | 0.4 | +0.362 | 48.9% | 1.32 | ||||
Wake Forest's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
8-2 over the last 10, and won the last five.
My first thought was that it’s probably something like rolling the quad… but without question, what I heard the most was, we really love Hit The Bricks
14% now · ▲ 4 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Root for Virginia Tech over SMU
Fri 7 pm · Moves Wake Forest’s playoff chance by 3 points
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons with this one game forced each way. Only games that move the chance by two points or more are listed.
Range of outcomes · Wake Forest · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 11%; 10 wins 43%; 11 wins 46%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-1
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Wake Forest is the smallest school in the Power conferences and the program that keeps winning anyway — the place that turns three-star quarterbacks into NFL draft picks and just won nine games in a brand-new coach's first try.
Wake fans are used to being the team analysts forget to mention and the campus visitors can't find. They say being overlooked is a feature — the Deacons recruit the players everyone else passed on…
Wake Forest · Game-day weather
Typical at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 90 to 94
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 114 at 3:30 pm, 108 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Wake Forest is the smallest P5 school by enrollment and the program that quietly produces nine-win seasons by ignoring its size.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 2 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
64th percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #5, Dylan Sinn (The Journal Gazette), to #18, Koki Riley (The (Baton Rouge) Advocate).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Wake Forest · 2026