Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrambler · +0.55 EPA/play | 3 | 8 | 153 / 228 | 67.1 | 2176 #15 FBS | 9.5 | 18 #14 FBS | 1 | 172.4 | 69 | 87.6 | 10.1 | 5 | |
Yards by week → Scrambler· Money-downMakes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise. saves his best for the money downs In the Heisman race — our Heisman model ranks this player #9 right now. This week's matchup — QB Lopez extends plays on the move until something opens up. Jennings is the one who operates within the system without forcing anything. Season receipt Rush usage25.0% 63th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Yards / attempt9.7 95th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Giovanni Lopez's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Back · +0.05 EPA/play | 4 | 8 | 78 | 376 | 4.8 | 7 #36 FBS | 57 | 15.8 | 7.9 | |
Yards by week → Balanced back· Boom-or-bustPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. his yards come in chunks — feast or famine 78 carries and 1 catch in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB III does a little of everything without one standout trait. Raphael is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry5.1 bottom 42th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share1.3% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Plays like View Ty Clark III's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · +0.16 EPA/play | 22 | 8 | 68 | 324 | 4.8 | 3 | 21 | 13.2 | 16.2 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 68 carries and 7 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Lawrence does a little of everything without one standout trait. Raphael is the one who does a little of everything without one standout trait. Season receipt Yards / carry4.9 bottom 36th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Receiving share9.3% bottom 41th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Deuce Lawrence's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.22 EPA/play | 29 | 6 | 26 | 198 | 7.6 | 3 | 55 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slot Technician · +0.98 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 57 | 856 #8 FBS | 15.0 | 5 #39 FBS | 78 | |
Yards by week → Slot technician· Boom-or-bustRuns precise routes in tight quarters. Volume player who keeps chains moving. Starter — 57 catches in 7 games, more catches a game than nearly every FBS receiver who plays every week. The rare part: the passing game runs through him — and every touch moves the offense, too This week's matchup — WR Hernandez wins underneath on volume and route precision. Hale is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Reception volume57 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Total EPA (college ability)70.7 100th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions — the part the label misses Trait fingerprint Plays like View Carlos Hernandez's full player page | ||||||||
| Deep Threat · +0.72 EPA/play | 10 | 5 | 22 | 395 | 18.0 | 4 #70 FBS | 52 | |
Yards by week → Deep threatStretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play. This week's matchup — WR Foley beats you over the top. Hale is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception18.9 94th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions TD rate18.2% 92th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jack Foley's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.35 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 18 | 262 | 14.6 | 1 | 40 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Shanks moves the chains on third down. Hale is the one who moves the chains on third down. Season receipt Yards / reception13.3 bottom 49th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume18 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Kameran Shanks's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.22 EPA/play | 14 | 6 | 11 | 187 | 17 | 1 | 72 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.46 EPA/play | 18 | 8 | 11 | 117 | 10.6 | 0 | 47 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.54 EPA/play | 84 | 3 | 6 | 116 | 19.3 | 3 | 39 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Complete TE · +0.15 EPA/play | 12 | 6 | 9 | 64 | 7.1 | 1 | 17 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Kamrean Johnson's full player page | ||||||||
| -0.04 EPA/play | 85 | 3 | 5 | 40 | 8 | 1 | 15 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 11 | 8 | 42 | 15 | 10.5 #17 FBS | 5.5 #29 FBS | 6 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Impact starter — 42 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than nearly every FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate25.0% 81th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Langston Hardy's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 94 | 8 | 27 | 8 | 7.5 #73 FBS | 2.5 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 27 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.8% 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Zach Lohavichan's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 10 | 8 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. Starter — 25 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate28.0% 87th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Gabe Kirschke's full player page | |||||||
| 3-Tech Penetrator | 52 | 8 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
3-tech penetratorDisruptive interior rusher who lives in the backfield. 200 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate17.6% 59th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dallas Afalava's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 97 | 8 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Matt Herron's full player page | |||||||
| 14 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 55 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | |
| 9 | 5 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| 20 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage 'Backer | 23 | 8 | 54 | 21 | 33 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Coverage ’backerCarries tight ends and patrols the middle of the field in coverage. Starter — 54 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 89 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate5.6% 78th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Tackle volume54 82th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Vincent Firenze's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 21 | 8 | 48 | 13 | 35 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 48 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume48 72th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate0.0% bottom 23th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Aiden Hall's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 43 | 8 | 45 | 13 | 32 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 45 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. 330 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume45 66th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles PD rate0.0% bottom 21th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Frank Cusano's full player page | |||||||||
| 46 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 40 | 4 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 7 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 44 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Box Safety | 8 | 8 | 47 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Box safetyLives near the line of scrimmage as a de facto extra linebacker. Starter — 47 tackles in 8 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 150 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume47 90th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Braylon Johnson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 5 | 7 | 43 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 43 tackles in 7 games, more tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate4.7% bottom 34th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Davaughn Patterson's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 7 | 32 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 32 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate12.5% 73th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Brian Blades's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 6 | 8 | 29 | 2 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 29 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Rushuan Tongue's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 13 | 8 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Ashaad Williams's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 22 | 6 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2024 class View Myles Turpin's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 38 | 7 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate10.0% 61th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Somad Eaddy's full player page | |||||||
| 24 | 4 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 27 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 26 | 3 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 17 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steady | 90 | 8 | 13/14 | 92.9 | 34/34 | 73 | 45 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 45 | 8 | 22 | 1005 | 45.7 | 70 | 7 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 5 | 5 | 116 | 23.2 | 0 | 27 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Possession Receiver · +0.35 EPA/play | 5 | 6 | 4 | 120 | 30 | 0 | 64 |
| Slot Technician · +0.98 EPA/play | 8 | 7 | 6 | 39 | 6.5 | 0 | 18 |
How scary each game got
Wake Forest lost to Miami after being 74% to win; the closest win was at Purdue, down to 4%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Wake Forest during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Biggest plays from Wake Forest’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Wake Forest’s games this season, whoever made them.
Overtime, 0:00 · Wake Forest down 6, takes the leadGiovanni Lopez runs 3 yards for a touchdownWake Forest at Purdue, week 2Overtime, 0:00 · Wake Forest 38, Purdue 36Overtime two-point conversion for Wake ForestOvertime two-point conversion for Wake ForestGio Lopez 3 yd Run (Gio Lopez Run for Two-Point Conversion)▶Watch from this play
Q2, 0:57 · Louisville down 10Lincoln Kienholz finds Jaleel Skinner for a 61-yard touchdownWake Forest at Louisville, week 4Q2, 0:57 · Louisville 21, Wake Forest 246161-yard touchdown pass6161-yard touchdown pass61-yard touchdown passL.Kienholz pass complete deep left to J.Skinner caught at WFU40, for 61 yards to the WFU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Runner was inbounds". CALL UPHELD, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 5:49 · Wake Forest down 4, takes the leadGiovanni Lopez finds Carlos Hernandez for a 77-yard touchdownWake Forest at Louisville, week 4Q2, 5:49 · Wake Forest 17, Louisville 147777-yard touchdown pass7777-yard touchdown pass77-yard touchdown passG. Lopez pass to C. Hernandez for 77 yds, for a TD (C. Calvert kick)▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 1:19 · Wake Forest up 3Ty Clark III runs 6 yards for a touchdownWake Forest at Louisville, week 4Q2, 1:19 · Wake Forest 24, Louisville 14Wake Forest scored with 1:19 left in the halfWake Forest scored with 1:19 left in the halfT.Clark rush middle for 6 yards gain to the LOU00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q2, 3:46 · Louisville down 3Somad Eaddy intercepts Lincoln KienholzWake Forest at Louisville, week 4Q2, 3:46 · Louisville 14, Wake Forest 177Louisville’s turnover led to a touchdown7Louisville’s turnover led to a touchdownLouisville’s turnover led to a touchdownL.Kienholz pass intercepted by S.Eaddy at WFU34 S.Eaddy return 1 yard to the WFU35 (L.McCoy)▶Watch from this play
- Q4, 14:52 · Wake Forest tiedWake Forest turns it overWake Forest at Louisville, week 4Q4, 14:52 · Wake Forest 27, Louisville 27▼10%Wake Forest’s chance to win, 28% to 18%▼10%Wake Forest’s chance to win, 28% to 18%G.Lopez pass complete short left to C.Hernandez caught at WFU18, for 8 yards to the WFU29 fumbled by C.Hernandez at WFU29 forced by B.Perry recovered by LOU J.Smith II at WFU29, End Of Play penalty LOU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (S.Clark) 15 yards from WFU29 to WFU44▶Watch from this play
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Wake Forest
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · Wake ForestCarlos Hernandez leads Wake Forest with 856 receiving yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+18 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Wake Forest fields an elite offense behind a strong, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Wake Forest reads strongest in EPA / play (top 2%) and rushing EPA (top 2%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Wake Forest sits at the 42nd percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Wake Forest is worth +1.5 points more at home than on the road.
Bottom third of FBS, 11th percentile of 133 programs
55% at home, 53% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (26-21 home, 24-21 away). Interval ±4.4.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Wake Forest has beaten the number by −0.9 more at home than away over 99 games. That is inside the ±6.3 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium seats 31,500 and has averaged 95% full (29,994, 31 games reported). Visitors cover a median 284 miles to get here since 2018 — 29th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 12% of the 2026 roster (12 of 98 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 55 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Deep threatChris Barnes is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
- Deep threatSawyer Racanelli is a real deep-ball threat: a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Ty Clark III and Deuce Lawrence split the carries (76/144 vs 68/144) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Deuce Lawrence owns the receiving work.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Carlos Hernandez (WR) and Kamrean Johnson (TE) split the targets (67/79 vs 12/79) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Wake Forest actually scores
98th percentile quality, 4th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Wake Forest’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 59th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 3rd — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Wake Forest hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
75th percentile success on standard downs, 96th on passing downs — a 21-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Wake Forest by half
1st-half offense ranks 99th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 73rd — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Wake Forest’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.36; 99th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.13. The widest gap came in week 2: 0.48 raw vs. 0.04 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Wake Forest’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Wake Forest’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.4% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 199-play sample) — mid-pack, 91 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Wake Forest’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (71.6% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 297-play sample) — most generous, 137 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
The bounces have gone their way on their own fumbles: 78% recovered, vs. ~52% expected.
7 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.
Takeaways
Deflections without payoff: 10% of disrupted passes intercepted, vs. ~18% league-wide.
3 interceptions of 29 disrupted passes (26 deflected, 3 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
The flags haven't favored them: 66 penalties committed vs. 50 drawn on opponents, 226 yards behind.
634 penalty yards committed vs. 408 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Wake Forest
Most similar programs · Wake ForestReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Weather
Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium, Winston-Salem, NC
Usual during the game around Nov 7: 58°, between 47° and 69° in about 7 in 10 games (29 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 60°, and 8 in 10 ran between 43° and 80° (47 of 52 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.