money downthis cycle✓ factnew
Que'Sean Brown is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Duke
2-0Latest
ACC · Manny Diaz, year 3 (20-9) · Wallace Wade Stadium · 40,004 · 16,113 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#68 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #45 (+6.6) · FPI #40
The marketDuke by 9.5vs Stanford · our model 76% Duke · a number, not a pick
LastW 31–27 at Illinois · Sat Sep 12 · Nate Sheppard 147 rush yds, 1 TD, 41 rec yds
Nextvs Stanford · Sat Sep 19 · 4 pm ET · Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke by 9.5 · series 1-3, lost the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
Duke · 2026 schedule & results2-0
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #67 | #75 | -9.5✓ | Tulane | W 17–3 133 | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #66 | #68 | +6✓ | @Illinois | W 31–27 125 | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #68 | #103 | -9.5 | Stanford | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #68 | #183 | William & Mary | ||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Georgia Tech | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | North Carolina | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 23 | @Virginia | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Boston College | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | @NC State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Miami | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Clemson | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Wake Forest |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | @Illinois | W 31–27 | 376 | 0 | 26:46 | +0.403 | 45.6% | 133.0% | |
| Sep 5 | Tulane | W 17–3 | 381 | 1 | 36:35 | -0.051 | 29.5% | 124.0% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 378 | 0.5 | +0.176 | 37.6% | 128.5% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
Duke is the basketball school that quietly became an ACC football champion — winning the league outright for the first time since 1962 and still half-checking the scoreboard to make sure it's true.
Title DroughtSince 1962 · 64 yrs
Fans hear the same backhand every fall — that Duke is a basketball school whose football is a curiosity, that the academic standard caps the ceiling. They point at the 2025 ACC trophy and ask the talk…
moderate signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
Duke fans
Illinois fans on Duke
Duke fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 9-5 · last season
Game feel64shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 17 in the ACC
Heart rate4-2some dramain one-score games (6 of 14)6th most one-score games of 17 in the ACC
Margin+5.1competitiveavg scoring margin10th best margin of 17 in the ACC
Tempo67average paceoffensive plays / game9th fastest of 17 in the ACC
Big plays1.35some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)5th most explosive of 17 in the ACC
Home crowd24,283avg attendance17th biggest crowds of 17 in the ACC
✓ measured from 14 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Duke has won five straight.
Hot. 7-3 over the last 10, and won the last six.
Streak W6Last 5 · 5-0Last 10 · 7-3
I always felt like it was a quarterback award unless you have a crazy season like DeVonta Smith with 1,800 yards and 24 touchdowns
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Stanford · at home
Season line6.5 winsover +105
ElitePass-first, spreadPoor
✓ fact on line · ~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
Win total2 booksO/U 6.5
CFP championship#49 in field+40000
ACC title#9 in market+6500
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
Duke · the story right now
5 storylines developing
What Duke's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
closer2025 cycle~attributednew
Anderson Castle: a closer signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Jeremiah Hasley is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
program_outlook2025 cycle~readnew
Duke enters 2025 at No. 44 in SP+ — bottom-quintile returning production forces Manny Diaz to prove last year's 9-5 leap wasn't a one-year spike under Mike Elko.
what happenedDuke enters 2025 rated No. 44 in SP+ (+6.6). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
Duke enters 2026 — the 9-5 record and No. 44 SP+ rating contrast with bottom-quintile returning production, forcing Manny Diaz to rebuild under the shadow of Mike Elko's legacy.
what happenedDuke enters 2026 rated No. 44 in 2025 SP+ (+6.6). ✓ fact
the contextbottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
AnsweredDuke's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Died downDuke's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Died downDuke's offensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
Outcome band · Duke · 2026
Outcome band · Duke · 2026Duke's most likely season is 8-5 — a bowl game. The floor is 5-7; the ceiling is 10-3.
Floor 5-7Ceiling 10-3Base 8-5
0 wins13 wins
Floor5-7No postseason.
Base8-5A bowl game.
Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 2 more wins.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · Duke · Season outlook Confidence
Duke enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Duke enters 2025 rated No. 44 in SP+ (+6.6). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics3 doubt takes
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 16% volume · mostly neutral
The saga so far~6 months old
2 weeks agoDuke releases depth chart for opener — Official
3 weeks agoDuke names starting QB for 2026 — Official
Mar 23QB Blaine Hipa transfer commits from Princeton — CFBD /player/portal
Mar 23WR Jonah Burton transfer commits from Idaho State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Duke enters 2025 at No. 44 in SP+ — bottom-quintile returning production forces Manny Diaz to prove last year's 9-5 leap wasn't a one-year spike under Mike Elko.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Duke enters 2025 rated No. 44 in SP+ (+6.6) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers7 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“POP THE CHAMPAIGN: Duke football grinds out 31-27 win over Illinois behind late defensive stops”
The Duke Chronicle · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Duke football finds its identity win on the road at Illinois”
Independent Tribune · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Duke's Nate Sheppard Emerges as Doak Walker Award Contender”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Reacting to Illinois’ concerning loss to Duke | TCR Podcast” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Reacting to Illinois’ concerning loss to Duke | TCR Podcast”
The Champaign Room · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Illinois football epically failed the crucial stress test Duke gave us on Saturday”
Writing Illini · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards16% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (67%).›
This event was in 212 of 1308 board posts (16%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"This is my first semester at Duke and I love the mobile ordering app but it's unpredictable. Some places allow me to order ahead and other spots at WU let me make an order, but whe"
r/duke ~ fan take
"Duke’s Nate Sheppard could actually get an invite to the Heisman ceremony. He won’t win, but he could be there. Through 2 games: Rushing: 374 yards, 3 TD Receiving: 8 catches, 60 y"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (286 posts): 27% positive · 39% neutral · 34% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Following now · Duke · Season outlook Confidence
Duke enters the season in the middle of the pack. That's the whole tension.
Duke enters 2026 rated No. 44 in 2025 SP+ (+6.6). It is bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. Preview coverage is split — believers and skeptics are reading the same data differently.
bullish — but with real dissent
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics3 doubt takes
Believers7 bull takes
💬 fans: 16% volume · mostly neutral
The saga so far~6 months old
2 weeks agoDuke releases depth chart for opener — Official
3 weeks agoDuke names starting QB for 2026 — Official
Mar 23QB Blaine Hipa transfer commits from Princeton — CFBD /player/portal
Mar 23WR Jonah Burton transfer commits from Idaho State — CFBD /player/portal
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Duke enters 2026 — the 9-5 record and No. 44 SP+ rating contrast with bottom-quintile returning production, forcing Manny Diaz to rebuild under the shadow of Mike Elko's legacy.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: Duke enters 2026 rated No. 44 in 2025 SP+ (+6.6) — bottom-quintile returning production — heavy turnover entering the season.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers7 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“POP THE CHAMPAIGN: Duke football grinds out 31-27 win over Illinois behind late defensive stops”
The Duke Chronicle · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Duke football finds its identity win on the road at Illinois”
Independent Tribune · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“Duke's Nate Sheppard Emerges as Doak Walker Award Contender”
Yahoo Sports · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“Reacting to Illinois’ concerning loss to Duke | TCR Podcast” — the real counter.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
“Reacting to Illinois’ concerning loss to Duke | TCR Podcast”
The Champaign Room · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“Illinois football epically failed the crucial stress test Duke gave us on Saturday”
Writing Illini · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
💬The boards16% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in. Board mood this week: mostly neutral · anger notable (67%).›
This event was in 212 of 1308 board posts (16%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"This is my first semester at Duke and I love the mobile ordering app but it's unpredictable. Some places allow me to order ahead and other spots at WU let me make an order, but whe"
r/duke ~ fan take
"Duke’s Nate Sheppard could actually get an invite to the Heisman ceremony. He won’t win, but he could be there. Through 2 games: Rushing: 374 yards, 3 TD Receiving: 8 catches, 60 y"
r/CFB ~ fan take
Board health this week (286 posts): 27% positive · 39% neutral · 34% negative. Team-level weekly mood — not specific to this event. The boards ≠ the fanbase: a self-selected vocal slice.
Rival pulse
North Carolina
Mixed+1
Victory Bell
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
Duke is the program whose football team plays in Wallace Wade Stadium while the school's identity stays with Cameron Indoor — and whose patience with that asymmetry just brought a competitive era under Mike Elko.
Offense: EliteRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadDefense: Poor
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - Duke
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production17%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#69 nationally247 composite 668.5
Portal Additions19Primary repair: QB
Portal Losses17Primary pressure: S
Draft Loss3NFL Draft departures (3)
Recruiting Reload#71Depth class
Sin 2 - Che Ojarikreout 4 - Terry MooreStarter Risk
current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
WRin 3 - Javen Nicholasout 3 - Cooper BarkateEven
current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Slot Technician2025 profileBoom-or-bustwins underneath on volume and route precision his yards come in chunks — feast or famine
our read Unranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile
CBin 3 - Dylan Flowersout 3 - Moussa KaneEven
current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickel2025 profilemoves between deep coverage and the slot
Junior-college recruit
QBin 3 - Walker Egetout 2 - Darian MensahUpgrade
current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Pocket Passer2025 profileoperates within the system without forcing anything
Homegrown
Full roster (103 players)
CBChe Ojarikre, Dylan Flowers, Evan Smith, Kaleb Lanier, Kimari Robinson, Kolbe Harmon, Kyon Loud, Landan Callahan, Patrick Smith-Young, Tyson Sanford
DEBryce Davis, Jaylen Carl, Kevin O'Connor, Kobe Smith, Obinna Umeh, Sampson Onuoha, Semaj Turner, Tommy Rupley, Tyshon Reed
DTAyden Cain, Bariate Kara, Chadwicke Cannon Jr., Dakota Quinonez, David Anderson, Julius Columbus, Owen Wafle, Preston Watson
LBAsher Wasserman, Bradley Gompers, Colsen Gatten, Derrick Brown Jr., Elliott Schaper, Jon Morris, Kendall Johnson, Luke Mergott, Nick Morris Jr., Tony Grimmer, Will Felder Jr.
OLBraden Miller, Bradley Smith, Caleb Dorris, Cole Allen, Daniel Boyd, Gemyel Allen, Jamin Brown, Jordan Larsen, Kai Jacobowitz, Matt Craycraft, Micah Sahakian, Nathan Kutufaris, Nick Del Grande, Reagan McCranie, Roman Fina, Ryan Daly, Sean Stover
SAndrew Pellicciotta, Brady Winter, DaShawn Stone, KD Cotton, Leon Griffin III, Lyrik Pettis, Patrick Smith-Young
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · Duke
4 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
Duke names starting QB for 2026
Manny Diaz settles the QB room before spring gets loud — locking in a starter this early is about keeping the portal closed, not just answering a depth question.
- Portal
QB Blaine Hipa transfer commits from Princeton
Ivy graduate transfer; Hipa's third QB add of the cycle for Diaz, this room is now four-deep on tape.
- News
Duke releases depth chart for opener
Three draft departures and a safety room still under pressure — the first depth chart tells you whether Diaz patched the back end or just reshuffled names on paper.
- Portal
WR Jonah Burton transfer commits from Idaho State
FCS to ACC — Manny Diaz's offense needs receiver depth and Burton's per-target numbers held up.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-2.4 net portal points
(raw ledger: +4.7 — unweighted, no position adjustment)S-8.0
starter risk
OT+3.8
RB+3.5
LB+3.4
low confidence
QB+2.8
WR-1.6
CB+0.5
TE+0.2
DL+0.0
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★★☆
Sean Stover
#347 national
★★★★☆
Obinna Umeh
#353 national
★★★☆☆
CJ Givers
#586 national
Profiles like a typical incoming running back — 19 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Balanced Back archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
15
GA · 4NC · 3TX · 3FL · 2AL · 1IN · 1PA · 1
GA leads the 2026 class with 4 commits. National footprint reaching 7 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
87 signees across 21 states, 2023-2026. GA leads the pull.
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Duke player grew up 438 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
29th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%306–1,036 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi6%6 of 99 players
Farthest4,757 miBlaine Hipa · Kailua, HI
Closest19 miJake Taylor · Apex, NC
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Wallace Wade Stadium. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 99 of 103 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
Community pulse
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
How it turned out
Belief history
→
Fan confidence in a typical range for this program right now
71st percentile among FBS programs
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
71st
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
6.5
Vegas O/U wins
(45th among FBS)
(45th among FBS)
Fans 26pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 2 books
Penalties
Penalty battle
19 penalties committed, 22 drawn on opponents — a near-even trade all season.
165 penalty yards committed vs. 175 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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