Duke football 2026: schedule, results, rankings

The rest of the season

4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: No. 1 Miami 20%

Win out 1% · expect 1.5 of 4 more wins

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Bowl chance went from 53% to 100%, peaking at 100% before a game

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 5th in the ACC · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing Walker Eget 1,641 · Rushing Nate Sheppard 972 · Receiving Jeremiah Hasley 305 All player stats

The nationCoaches #23week 6 poll

The model#39 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #47 (+6.8) · FPI #36

The marketDuke by 4.5Betting line at NC State · our model 40% Duke

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Follow Duke:athletics siteACCXYouTube

Duke · 2026 schedule and results6-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 44% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #67 to #52

Wk	Date	Our rank	Opp rank	Line	Opponent	Result	Record	Conf	Top performers
1	Sep 5	#67	#75	−9.5✓ +4.5	Tulane	W 17-3 133	1-0	0-0	Pass Eget 131 · Rush Sheppard 227 · Rec Burton 38
2	Sep 12	#65	#68	+6✓ +10	@Illinois	W 31-27 125	2-0	0-0	Pass Eget 206 · Rush Sheppard 147 · Rec Burton 76
3	Sep 19	#67	#101	−9.5✓ +18.5	Stanford	W 35-7 129	3-0	1-0	Pass Eget 202 · Rush Sheppard 154 · Rec Hasley 88
4	Sep 26	#59	#206	−43.5✓ +11.5	William & Mary	W 62-7 121	4-0	1-0	Pass Eget 182 · Rush Sheppard 116 · Rec Burton 63
5	Bye week
6	Oct 10	#54	#100	−4.5✗ −7.5	@Georgia Tech	L 25-28 134	4-1	1-1	Pass Eget 259 · Rush Sheppard 99 · Rec Sheppard 91
7	Oct 17	#52	#67	−3✗ −7	North Carolina	L 20-24 135	4-2	1-2	Pass Eget 249 · Rush Sheppard 77 · Rec Sheppard 98
8	Oct 23	#53	#60	+2.5✓ +5.5	@Virginia	W 19-16 127 Loud	5-2	2-2	Pass Eget 211 · Rush Sheppard 55 · Rec Burton 59
9	Oct 31	#52	#91	−7✓ +38	Boston College	W 47-2 126 Roaring	6-2	3-2	Pass Eget 201 · Rush Sheppard 97 · Rec Hasley 55
10	Nov 7	#41	#66	−4.5	@NC State	12:30 pm ET · The CW40% to win
11	Nov 14	#39	#5	+21	@Miami	time TBA · ABC20% to win
12	Nov 20				Clemson	7:30 pm ET · ESPN61% to win
13	Nov 28				@Wake Forest	time TBA

How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Duke, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Duke: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼

Date	Opp	Result	Yds	TO	TOP	EPA/play	Success%	Big plays (IsoPPP)	Note
Oct 31	Boston College	W 47-2	382	1	34:00	+0.241	37.3%	1.44	Best defensive stand
Oct 23	@Virginia	W 19-16	327	1	21:13	+0.057	36.0%	1.46	Most explosive
Oct 17	North Carolina	L 20-24	373	1	31:23	+0.079	40.3%	1.21	One-score loss
Oct 10	@Georgia Tech	L 25-28	418	0	35:26	+0.273	43.0%	1.39	Defense's roughest night
Sep 26	William & Mary	W 62-7	638	0	32:20	+0.556	56.2%	1.40	Season-high EPA/play
Sep 19	Stanford	W 35-7	470	1	37:14	+0.402	48.6%	1.36	Blowout win
Sep 12	@Illinois	W 31-27	376	0	26:46	+0.403	45.6%	1.33	One-score win
Sep 5	Tulane	W 17-3	381	1	36:35	-0.051	29.5%	1.24	Season-low EPA/play
Season average (8 games)			421	0.6		+0.245	42.1%	1.35

Duke's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast

Season line7.5 winsover +112

Offense eliteExplosive, big-playDefense elite

Season expectations

Win total1 bookOver/under 7.5▲1 since Sep 14

ACC title#9 in market+7,800

Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

W 47-2 vs Boston College

Duke fans

r/CFB

“Give Nate all the money. Just drive it over to him.”

3d ago

r/CFB

“We have. It's just that being Duke for the past 13ish years has meant generally being a top-50 team that wins 8 or 9 games most years.”

3d ago

Boston College fans on Duke

r/CFB

“BC has won two games, in-a-row. Duke is the next domino to fall as our crusade to the CFB Playoffs continues to roll on.... <collapses with potential brain…”

4d ago

W 19-16 at Virginia

Duke fans

r/CFB

“He’s at least compentent so they have to cover the recievers”

1w ago

r/CFB

“Index finger hit a defense player and is injured apparently.”

1w ago

Virginia fans on Duke

r/CFB

“Eget not even that great. No way Duke is this incapable without him”

1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 14AP #1 Miamiat Miami · on the road

Sat Nov 28AP #14 Wake Forestat Wake Forest · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

Duke has won three of its last five.

8-2 over the last 10, and won the last two.

Streak W2Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 8-2

It’s extraordinarily hard to look to the future, and extraordinarily frustrating because our regular season ends in five weeks, and we know the portal is coming, and we do not have any guidance, you know, in terms of what the rules of engagement are going to be going into ’27

Diaz · On3Oct 29, 20262 days before Duke's 2026 game against Boston College

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

What a title game and a playoff run could add

Floor8-4No postseason.

Base9-4A bowl game.

Ceiling10-3A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

The story

Roster and recruiting

Roster17% of production back, talent #69

Roster reload: Duke

2026 snapshot, Nov 4

Returning Production17%Low continuity / heavy reload

Talent Composite#69 nationally247 composite 668.5

Portal Additions19Primary repair: QB

Portal Losses17Primary pressure: S

Draft Loss3NFL Draft departures (3)

Recruiting Reload#71Depth class

Sin 2 - Che Ojarikre3.60out 4 - Terry Moore4.50Starter Risk

current room: 194 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Press Cornerjams receivers off their route at the line

Transferred in

WRin 3 - Javen Nicholas3.70out 3 - Cooper Barkate4.50Even

current room: 185 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Slot Technician2025 profileBoom-or-bustwins underneath on volume and route precision his yards come in chunks — feast or famine

Unranked recruit — top-quartile production against his own recruiting profile

CBin 3 - Dylan Flowers3.70out 3 - Moussa Kane3.60Even

current room: 183 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Perimeter Tacklergets targeted often and tackles in space

Third program

QBin 3 - Walker Eget3.60out 2 - Darian Mensah4.50Upgrade

current room: 206 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Pocket Passeroperates within the system without forcing anything

Transferred in

DLin 2 - Owen Wafle3.50out 2 - Terry Simmons3.49Even

current room: 290 lbs avg (2025 roster)

Two-Gap Basewins the gap play after play

Third program

OTin 2 - Braden Miller3.80out 1 - Jack Small3.50Upgrade

Full roster (103 players)

CBChe Ojarikre, Dylan Flowers, Evan Smith, Kaleb Lanier, Kimari Robinson, Kolbe Harmon, Kyon Loud, Landan Callahan, Patrick Smith-Young, Tyson Sanford

DEBryce Davis, Jaylen Carl, Kevin O'Connor, Kobe Smith, Obinna Umeh, Sampson Onuoha, Semaj Turner, Tommy Rupley, Tyshon Reed

DTAyden Cain, Bariate Kara, Chadwicke Cannon Jr., Dakota Quinonez, David Anderson, Julius Columbus, Owen Wafle, Preston Watson

LBAsher Wasserman, Bradley Gompers, Colsen Gatten, Derrick Brown Jr., Elliott Schaper, Jon Morris, Kendall Johnson, Luke Mergott, Nick Morris Jr., Tony Grimmer, Will Felder Jr.

LSJack Ronilo, Jack Yates, Jake Fitzgerald

OLBraden Miller, Bradley Smith, Caleb Dorris, Cole Allen, Daniel Boyd, Gemyel Allen, Jamin Brown, Jordan Larsen, Kai Jacobowitz, Matt Craycraft, Micah Sahakian, Nathan Kutufaris, Nick Del Grande, Reagan McCranie, Roman Fina, Ryan Daly, Sean Stover

PKade Reynoldson

PKAshton Zamani, Cosme Salas, Gavin Strange, Mika Levy

QBAri Patu, Blaine Hipa, Dan Mahan, Lawrence Gardner, Terry Walker III, Walker Eget

RBCJ Givers, Cole Denson, Jayvian Tanelus, Nate Sheppard, Paul Holyfield Jr., Wilhelm Daal II

SAndrew Pellicciotta, Brady Winter, DaShawn Stone, KD Cotton, Leon Griffin III, Lyrik Pettis, Patrick Smith-Young

TEBenjamin Moseley, Brett Elliott, Jack Gaskins, Jake Taylor, Jeremiah Hasley, Nate Kurisky, Tony Boggs

WRBlake Rohrer, Brody Keefe, CJ Campbell, Jackson Maggiore, Jaivon Solomon, Jamien Little, Jared Richardson, Javen Nicholas, Jayden Moore, Jonah Burton, Kavon Conciauro, Kavon Simmons, Paxon Kettering, Qeanu Johnson

Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class

★★★☆☆

Aidan McPherson

QB · Thomasville, GA

#882 national

Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Community pulse

No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.

Fans and ratings

Mood vs. historyFan mood is higher than 1% of FBS programs

↓

Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020

1st percentile among FBS programs

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is far more optimistic than fans

Fan vs. market↓

1^st

Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)

7.5

Sportsbook win total
(57^th among FBS)

Market 56pp more optimistic than fan mood

Win total consensus · 1 book

Where voters differAP voters range from #22 to #25 (week 9)

Voter spread

4 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #22, Chris Carter (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), to #25, Dylan Sinn (The Journal Gazette). 66 voters left them off the ballot entirely.

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: North Carolina uneasy

Rival pulse

North Carolina

Uneasy

-15

Victory Bell

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Duke

Athletics siteDuke Athletics
Athletics siteDuke football on the athletics site
Conference pagetheacc.com football
On X@dukeathletics
On YouTubeuser/DukeAthletics

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site

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