Duke
2-0ACC · Manny Diaz, year 3 (20-9) · Wallace Wade Stadium · 40,004 · 16,113 avg in 2026
LastW 31–27 at Illinois · Sat Sep 12 · Nate Sheppard 147 rush yds, 1 TD, 41 rec yds
Nextvs Stanford · Sat Sep 19 · 4 pm ET · Wallace Wade Stadium · Duke by 9.5 · series 1-3, lost the last 3 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
All 89 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +0.27 EPA/play | 2 | 2 | 28 / 47 | 59.6 | 337 | 7.2 | 3 #60 FBS | 0 | 140.9 | 55 | 75.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Speed Merchant · +0.38 EPA/play | 20 | 2 | 59 | 374 #2 FBS | 6.3 | 3 #11 FBS | 47 | 12.1 | 24.1 | |
Yards by week → Speed MerchantCuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line. 2 of 15 RBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Yards / carry6.4 88th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Yards / reception7.5 87th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nate Sheppard's full player page | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1.15 EPA/play | 6 | 2 | 7 | 114 | 16.3 | 1 | 36 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.21 EPA/play | 85 | 2 | 5 | 89 | 17.8 | 0 | 35 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Power Rusher | 12 | 2 | 11 | 8 | 3 #30 FBS | 2 #26 FBS | 0 |
Power RusherBull-rushes through contact, winning with size and length at the point of attack. 1 of 12 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate27.3% 70th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce Davis's full player page | |||||||
| 95 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 2 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced LinebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 46 of 84 classified this way. Played in 2 of 3 games this season · senior · 3-star, 2021 class View Nick Morris Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| 34 | 2 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 42 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 2 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| — | 2 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 8 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1 | 2 | 7 | 2 #43 FBS | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 39 | 2 | 2/3 | 66.7 | 6/6 | 12 | 39 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41 | 2 | 7 | 318 | 45.4 | 62 | 2 | 1 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 | 9 |
2026 stat leaders · Duke
through 2 games
2026 stat leaders · DukeNate Sheppard leads Duke with 374 rushing yards through 2 games.
How They Play · 2025Duke fields an elite pass-first offense behind a porous, gives up the big play defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Duke reads strongest in explosive plays (top 16%) and epa / play (top 18%); the crux lives in passing epa allowed, where Duke sits at the 12th percentile.
offense · strengths lead
defense · higher bar = harder to play against
hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · Duke · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Duke has had no measurable home edge — +0.0 points, home against road.
No measurable home edge, 3rd percentile of 133 programs
53% at home, 42% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (23–20 home, 19–26 away). Interval ±4.4.
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Duke has beaten the number by −7.5 more at home than away over 70 games — inside the ±7.8 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Wallace Wade Stadium seats 40,004 and has averaged 62% full (24,839, 25 games reported). Visitors cover a median 313 miles to get here since 2018 — 41st-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 6% of the 2026 roster (6 of 99 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 50 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
Position battles
Positional competition · RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Nate Sheppard and CJ Campbell split the carries (57/74 vs 17/74) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
Scheme claims
Fourth-quarter reliability, corrected
Duke's 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 3rd percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it climbs to the 9th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Duke hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
20th percentile success on standard downs, 29th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| App State | 44th | 90th |
| Arizona | 92nd | 86th |
| Arkansas | 60th | 80th |
| Auburn | 75th | 55th |
| Ball State | 12th | 24th |
| Baylor | 40th | 96th |
| Boise State | 58th | 46th |
| Boston College | 27th | 56th |
| Buffalo | 7th | 14th |
| California | 9th | 25th |
| Central Michigan | 16th | 6th |
| Charlotte | 73rd | 83rd |
| Clemson | 1st | 19th |
| Coastal Carolina | 61st | 52nd |
| Colorado | 35th | 77th |
| Colorado State | 82nd | 91st |
| Delaware | 70th | 31st |
| Duke | 20th | 29th |
| Eastern Michigan | 52nd | 10th |
| Florida Atlantic | 43rd | 87th |
| Florida International | 46th | 43rd |
| Florida State | 28th | 65th |
| Georgia Southern | 24th | 45th |
| Georgia Tech | 58th | 44th |
| Hawai'i | 18th | 41st |
| Iowa State | 4th | 23rd |
| Jacksonville State | 65th | 82nd |
| Kansas | 70th | 35th |
| LSU | 33rd | 98th |
| Liberty | 14th | 59th |
| Louisiana | 19th | 92nd |
| Louisville | 96th | 70th |
| Memphis | 69th | 65th |
| Michigan | 2nd | 62nd |
| Michigan State | 62nd | 29th |
| Middle Tennessee | 87th | 68th |
| Missouri | 36th | 85th |
| Navy | 98th | 59th |
| Nevada | 77th | 52nd |
| New Mexico State | 45th | 75th |
| Norfolk State | 16th | 9th |
| North Dakota State | 86th | 27th |
| North Texas | 49th | 68th |
| Ohio | 38th | 17th |
| Ohio State | 90th | 40th |
| Oklahoma State | 41st | 49th |
| Ole Miss | 94th | 50th |
| Oregon | 35th | 33rd |
| Oregon State | 10th | 38th |
| Pittsburgh | 30th | 76th |
| Purdue | 83rd | 88th |
| Rutgers | 30th | 71st |
| Sacramento State | 23rd | 14th |
| Sam Houston | 78th | 61st |
| San Diego State | 4th | 40th |
| San José State | 54th | 22nd |
| South Alabama | 50th | 73rd |
| South Florida | 91st | 52nd |
| Stanford | 76th | 15th |
| Syracuse | 48th | 64th |
| TCU | 93rd | 8th |
| Tennessee | 65th | 78th |
| Texas | 72nd | 94th |
| Texas A&M | 85th | 72nd |
| Texas Tech | 88th | 48th |
| Troy | 22nd | 59th |
| Tulane | 31st | 2nd |
| Tulsa | 56th | 1st |
| UAB | 65th | 81st |
| UNLV | 51st | 7th |
| USC | 97th | 99th |
| UTSA | 99th | 29th |
| Utah State | 4th | 93rd |
| Vanderbilt | 80th | 12th |
| Wake Forest | 56th | 97th |
| Washington | 81st | 4th |
| Washington State | 8th | 3rd |
| Western Kentucky | 25th | 34th |
| Western Michigan | 39th | 20th |
| Wisconsin | 13th | 18th |
| Wyoming | 65th | 36th |
Halftime identity
Duke by half
1st-half offense ranks 76th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 1st — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
Tendency drift
Season by season
How Duke’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
Pass-depth identity
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Duke’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.1% vs 65.2% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 60-play sample) — mid-pack, 9 of 18 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Duke
Most similar programs · DukeReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Historical echo
Duke’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Conditions
67°F average kickoff temp; 10% of games had measurable precipitation; 6 mph average wind.
Based on 77 home games with weather data.