Next game: at NC State
Duke’s best edge on NC State is passing
Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.
Duke offense against NC State defense
NC State offense against Duke defense
Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.
Key stats
Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.
All 98 stats
FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs
| Player | # | G | Cmp/Att | Pct | Yds | Y/A | TD | INT | Rate | ZPR | QBR | Adj ANY/A | Sack% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pocket Passer · +0.32 EPA/play | 2 | 8 | 133 / 215 | 61.9 | 1641 #62 FBS | 7.6 | 9 | 3 | 137.0 | 59 | 64.3 | 7.8 | 0.5 | |
Yards by week → Pocket passerBalanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile. Starter — 215 pass attempts and 9 carries in 8 games, fewer passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week. This week's matchup — QB Eget operates within the system without forcing anything. Mensah is the one who extends plays on the move until something opens up. Season receipt Yards / attempt7.8 bottom 50th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Rush usage4.0% bottom 4th percentile · FBS QBs, min. 80 attempts Trait fingerprint Plays like View Walker Eget's full player page | ||||||||||||||
| -0.01 EPA/play | 10 | 8 | 13 / 22 | 59.1 | 175 | 8.0 | 3 | 1 | 161.8 | — | 38.9 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Car | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | Stuff% | 10+% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Satellite Back · +0.32 EPA/play | 20 | 8 | 173 | 972 #5 FBS | 5.6 | 14 #3 FBS | 54 | 13.1 | 16.1 | |
Yards by week → Satellite backDeployed as a receiver as much as a runner. Value is in space, not between the tackles. Impact starter — 173 carries, 31 catches and 1 pass attempt in 8 games, more touches a game than nearly every FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Sheppard wins in space out of the backfield. Mallory is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Receiving share15.2% 80th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate8.1% 89th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View Nate Sheppard's full player page | ||||||||||
| Balanced Back · -0.15 EPA/play | — | 8 | 60 | 284 | 4.7 | 0 | 33 | 25.9 | 13.8 | |
Yards by week → Balanced backPlays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension. 60 carries and 6 catches in 8 games. About as many touches a game as a typical FBS running back who plays every week. This week's matchup — RB Campbell does a little of everything without one standout trait. Mallory is the one who hits the crease and outruns the angle. Season receipt Yards / carry4.6 bottom 28th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Rush TD rate0.0% bottom 5th percentile · FBS RBs, min. 40 carries Trait fingerprint Plays like View CJ Campbell's full player page | ||||||||||
| +0.19 EPA/play | 22 | 3 | 21 | 136 | 6.5 | 2 | 26 | — | — | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||||
| Player | # | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD | Long | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Complete TE · +0.45 EPA/play | 85 | 7 | 24 | 305 | 12.7 | 1 | 35 | |
Yards by week → Complete TENo single go-to route — the receiving numbers show up inline and split out alike. Starter — 24 catches in 7 games, more catches a game than most FBS tight ends who play every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 126 of 166 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2022 class View Jeremiah Hasley's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.50 EPA/play | 6 | 8 | 21 | 299 | 14.2 | 1 | 36 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. The most common profile in its group this season — 279 of 467 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman View Jonah Burton's full player page | ||||||||
| Possession Receiver · +0.51 EPA/play | 17 | 6 | 18 | 226 | 12.6 | 2 | 31 | |
Yards by week → Possession receiverReliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive. This week's matchup — WR Richardson moves the chains on third down. Toney is the one who wins underneath on volume and route precision. Season receipt Yards / reception12.9 bottom 43th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Reception volume18 bottom 26th percentile · FBS WRs, min. 12 receptions Trait fingerprint Plays like View Jared Richardson's full player page | ||||||||
| +0.67 EPA/play | 4 | 5 | 11 | 207 | 18.8 | 1 | 32 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.01 EPA/play | 8 | 4 | 7 | 111 | 15.9 | 1 | 42 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.54 EPA/play | 7 | 5 | 8 | 97 | 12.1 | 1 | 29 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| +0.50 EPA/play | 18 | 3 | 6 | 85 | 14.2 | 2 | 28 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.65 EPA/play | 15 | 4 | 5 | 76 | 15.2 | 0 | 43 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| -0.12 EPA/play | 44 | 4 | 6 | 41 | 6.8 | 0 | 15 | |
Yards by week → | ||||||||
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | TFL | Sack | Hur |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pressure Merchant | 10 | 8 | 23 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
Pressure merchantCollapses the pocket even when the sack doesn't come. 23 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 22 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Hurry rate0.3 79th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Tyshon Reed's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 95 | 7 | 21 | 9 | 3.5 | 1 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 21 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate16.7% 55th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Preston Watson's full player page | |||||||
| Versatile End | 12 | 7 | 21 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Versatile endNo single standout number, but nothing missing either — competent across the board. 21 tackles in 7 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive lineman who plays every week. 121 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate23.8% 67th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Bryce Davis's full player page | |||||||
| Speed Rusher | 18 | 8 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Speed rusherBends the edge and wins with first-step quickness. Lighter frame, relentless motor. 19 of 180 EDGEs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Sack rate21.4% 90th percentile · FBS EDGE, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kobe Smith's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 55 | 8 | 14 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. 276 of 606 IDLs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt TFL rate10.7% bottom 35th percentile · FBS interior linemen, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Julius Columbus's full player page | |||||||
| Two-Gap Base | 91 | 6 | 13 | 6 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
Two-gap baseStout at the point of attack — steady tackle-for-loss production without a standout pass-rush number. The most common profile in its group this season — 276 of 606 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman View Owen Wafle's full player page | |||||||
| 15 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 4.5 | 4.5 #60 FBS | 2 | |
| 44 | 6 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 43 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| 93 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | Solo | Ast | TFL | Sack | PD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balanced Linebacker | 7 | 8 | 45 | 20 | 25 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. 45 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS linebacker who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2021 class View Nick Morris Jr.'s full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 34 | 8 | 33 | 14 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 8 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Luke Mergott's full player page | |||||||||
| Balanced Linebacker | 42 | 7 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 0.5 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Balanced linebackerSolid in every phase without a signature dimension. The most common profile in its group this season — 330 of 564 classified this way. Played in 7 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2023 class View Kendall Johnson's full player page | |||||||||
| Sideline-to-Sideline | 24 | 7 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 5.5 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
Sideline-to-sidelineRanges from hash to hash and makes his own tackles. 83 of 564 LBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Solo tackle rate0.6 86th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Sack rate20.0% 100th percentile · FBS linebackers, min. 15 tackles Trait fingerprint Plays like View Bradley Gompers's full player page | |||||||||
| 30 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 19 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 | |
| 40 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 31 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | Tot | PD | INT | TFL | Sack |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 8 | 8 | 39 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. Starter — 39 tackles in 8 games, about as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate2.6% bottom 25th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View DaShawn Stone's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 35 | 6 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 33 tackles in 6 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. The most common profile in its group this season — 358 of 657 classified this way. Played in 6 of 10 games this season · freshman · 3-star, 2025 class View Andrew Pellicciotta's full player page | |||||||
| Perimeter Tackler | — | 8 | 31 | 3 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 |
Perimeter tacklerTargeted often and asked to tackle in space on the perimeter. 31 tackles in 8 games. About as many tackles a game as a typical FBS defensive back who plays every week. 36 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Tackle volume31 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Dylan Flowers's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 1 | 8 | 27 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 27 tackles in 8 games. Fewer tackles a game than most FBS defensive backs who play every week. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Kyon Loud's full player page | |||||||
| Hybrid Nickel | 2 | 6 | 23 | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Hybrid nickelMoves between deep coverage and the slot — the modern positionless DB. 358 of 657 Ss we've classified this way this season. Season receipt PD rate8.7% 54th percentile · FBS safeties, min. 15 tackles Plays like View Patrick Smith-Young's full player page | |||||||
| Press Corner | 9 | 7 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
Press cornerLong and physical; jams receivers off their route at the line. 34 of 244 CBs we've classified this way this season. Season receipt Height6'2" 87th percentile · FBS corners, min. 10 tackles Plays like View Che Ojarikre's full player page | |||||||
| 4 | 5 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| 21 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 0 | |
| Player | # | G | FG M/A | FG% | XP M/A | Pts | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 5 | 7/8 | 87.5 | 13/15 | 34 | 41 | |
| 39 | 4 | 4/5 | 80 | 16/16 | 28 | 39 |
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | Long | In20 | TB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cannon | 41 | 8 | 28 | 1279 | 45.7 | 62 | 10 | 3 |
Net average is unavailable — CFBD's punting feed carries gross yards only, with no return-yardage or touchback deduction.
| Player | # | G | No | Yds | Avg | TD | Long |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hybrid Nickel | 35 | 6 | 8 | 85 | 10.6 | 0 | 39 |
| 21 | 3 | 5 | 79 | 15.8 | 0 | 27 |
Biggest plays from Duke’s games
Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Duke’s games this season, whoever made them.
Q4, 1:14 · Duke down 3, takes the leadNate Sheppard finds Brody Keefe for a 28-yard touchdownDuke at Virginia, week 8Q4, 1:14 · Duke 19, Virginia 161:14Go-ahead touchdown for Duke with 1:14 left1:14Go-ahead touchdown for Duke with 1:14 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Duke with 1:14 leftN.Sheppard pass complete deep right to B.Keefe caught at UVA01, for 28 yards to the UVA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick no good▶Watch from this play
Q4, 1:53 · North Carolina down 3, takes the leadJaylen McGill runs 24 yards for a touchdownNorth Carolina at Duke, week 7Q4, 1:53 · North Carolina 24, Duke 201:53Go-ahead touchdown for North Carolina with 1:53 left1:53Go-ahead touchdown for North Carolina with 1:53 leftGo-ahead touchdown for North Carolina with 1:53 leftJ.McGill rush left for 24 yards gain to the DUKE00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q4, 2:40 · Duke down 3, takes the leadNate Sheppard runs 5 yards for a touchdownDuke at Georgia Tech, week 6Q4, 2:40 · Duke 25, Georgia Tech 212:40Go-ahead touchdown for Duke with 2:40 left2:40Go-ahead touchdown for Duke with 2:40 leftGo-ahead touchdown for Duke with 2:40 leftN.Sheppard rush right for 5 yards gain to the GT 00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this play
- Q1, 10:59 · Duke tiedNate Sheppard runs 32 yards for a touchdownDuke at Virginia, week 8Q1, 10:59 · Duke 7, Virginia 0Duke opened the scoringDuke opened the scoringN.Sheppard rush middle for 32 yards gain to the UVA00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick good▶Watch from this playACC Digital Network
Q2, 7:37 · Georgia Tech breaks the tieTrelain Maddox runs 5 yards for a touchdownDuke at Georgia Tech, week 6Q2, 7:37 · Georgia Tech 14, Duke 792Capped a 92-yard drive92Capped a 92-yard driveCapped a 92-yard driveT.Maddox rush left for 5 yards gain to the DU 00 touchdown, kick good▶Watch from this play- Q3, 3:18 · Duke down 11Walker Eget finds Jared Richardson for an 8-yard touchdownDuke at Georgia Tech, week 6Q3, 3:18 · Duke 18, Georgia Tech 21Duke cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterDuke cut the deficit to 3 in the third quarterW.Eget pass complete short right to J.Richardson caught at GT 01, for 8 yards to the GT 00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN J.Burton pass attempt Successful▶Watch from this play
How scary each game got
Duke lost to North Carolina after being 85% to win; the closest win was at Illinois, down to 15%
Tap a game for its score and win chances.
Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Duke during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.
Stat leaders
2026 stat leaders · Duke
through 8 games
2026 stat leaders · DukeNate Sheppard leads Duke with 972 rushing yards through 8 games.
Roster
Roster
2026+16 more
Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back
How they play
Duke fields an elite explosive, big-play offense behind an elite, bend-don't-break defense.
Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.
Player percentiles
Duke reads strongest in rushing EPA allowed (top 4%) and red-zone defense (top 6%); the crux lives in success rate, where Duke sits at the 48th percentile.
Offense · strengths lead
Defense · higher bar = harder to play against
Hidden math · special situations
Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents
Duke has had no measurable home edge: +0.8 points, home against road.
No measurable home edge, 5th percentile of 133 programs
54% at home, 43% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (25-21 home, 20-27 away). Interval ±4.3.
The stadium and how the home edge is measured
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Duke has beaten the number by −2.6 more at home than away over 101 games. That is inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.
Wallace Wade Stadium seats 40,004 and has averaged 61% full (24,579, 29 games reported). Visitors cover a median 313 miles to get here since 2018 — 42nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. For the home side it is a home crowd more than a home town: only 6% of the 2026 roster (6 of 99 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.
Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 54 home games since 2018.
More in this tab
How they play
Usage splits
How the players get used
From the 2025 season's play-by-play
- Money downQue'Sean Brown is a legitimate money-down target: his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
- Deep threatJeremiah Hasley is used almost exclusively underneath: a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
Position battles
RB room
The carries are split. The job isn’t.
Nate Sheppard and CJ Campbell split the carries (166/224 vs 58/224) -- but the job isn't split the same way.
WR/TE room
The targets are split. The job isn’t.
Jonah Burton (WR) and Jeremiah Hasley (TE) split the targets (31/73 vs 42/73) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Jeremiah Hasley is the one who gets the ball in the red zone.
Scheme claims
Team identity · competitive snaps only
How Duke actually scores
74th percentile quality, 8th percentile boom-dependency. Garbage time excluded from both axes — the same correction that changes the Q4 story below.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Quality percentile | Boom-share percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 76th | 3rd |
| Akron | 9th | 90th |
| Alabama | 82nd | 22nd |
| App State | 41st | 48th |
| Arizona | 91st | 16th |
| Arizona State | 20th | 83rd |
| Arkansas | 7th | 93rd |
| Arkansas State | 60th | 32nd |
| Army | 95th | 10th |
| Auburn | 34th | 59th |
| BYU | 83rd | 17th |
| Ball State | 32nd | 72nd |
| Baylor | 36th | 63rd |
| Boise State | 96th | 4th |
| Boston College | 20th | 80th |
| Buffalo | 8th | 88th |
| Central Michigan | 6th | 96th |
| Cincinnati | 88th | 15th |
| Clemson | 10th | 92nd |
| Coastal Carolina | 49th | 57th |
| Colorado | 15th | 86th |
| Colorado State | 88th | 30th |
| Delaware | 63rd | 40th |
| Duke | 74th | 8th |
| East Carolina | 24th | 77th |
| Eastern Michigan | 14th | 80th |
| Florida | 75th | 37th |
| Florida Atlantic | 72nd | 25th |
| Florida International | 2nd | 98th |
| Florida State | 64th | 44th |
| Fresno State | 56th | 52nd |
| Georgia | 92nd | 11th |
| Georgia Southern | 52nd | 40th |
| Georgia State | 77th | 36th |
| Georgia Tech | 30th | 70th |
| Hawai'i | 12th | 88th |
| Houston | 89th | 2nd |
| Illinois | 70th | 38th |
| Indiana | 85th | 18th |
| Iowa | 52nd | 53rd |
| Iowa State | 43rd | 62nd |
| Jacksonville State | 62nd | 41st |
| James Madison | 58th | 35th |
| Kansas | 28th | 66th |
| Kansas State | 48th | 44th |
| Kennesaw State | 23rd | 79th |
| Kentucky | 71st | 21st |
| LSU | 86th | 9th |
| Liberty | 78th | 29th |
| Louisiana | 27th | 69th |
| Louisiana Tech | 60th | 47th |
| Louisville | 94th | 19th |
| Marshall | 36th | 61st |
| Maryland | 17th | 85th |
| Massachusetts | 38th | 60th |
| Memphis | 87th | 20th |
| Miami | 100th | 0th |
| Miami (OH) | 68th | 31st |
| Michigan | 25th | 71st |
| Middle Tennessee | 37th | 60th |
| Minnesota | 4th | 95th |
| Mississippi State | 35th | 65th |
| Missouri | 54th | 49th |
| Missouri State | 40th | 64th |
| NC State | 69th | 28th |
| Navy | 57th | 51st |
| Nebraska | 59th | 32nd |
| Nevada | 1st | 99th |
| New Mexico | 39th | 68th |
| North Carolina | 48th | 45th |
| North Dakota State | 31st | 64th |
| North Texas | 99th | 1st |
| Northern Illinois | 12th | 89th |
| Northwestern | 93rd | 6th |
| Notre Dame | 97th | 5th |
| Ohio | 67th | 43rd |
| Ohio State | 79th | 23rd |
| Oklahoma State | 76th | 14th |
| Ole Miss | 80th | 8th |
| Oregon | 28th | 72nd |
| Oregon State | 92nd | 13th |
| Penn State | 47th | 48th |
| Pittsburgh | 44th | 50th |
| Purdue | 65th | 34th |
| Rice | 18th | 87th |
| Rutgers | 32nd | 76th |
| SMU | 81st | 16th |
| San Diego State | 5th | 94th |
| San José State | 13th | 84th |
| South Alabama | 64th | 27th |
| South Carolina | 55th | 54th |
| South Florida | 42nd | 56th |
| Southern Miss | 3rd | 97th |
| Stanford | 53rd | 55th |
| Syracuse | 24th | 74th |
| TCU | 21st | 75th |
| Temple | 56th | 56th |
| Tennessee | 45th | 42nd |
| Texas | 11th | 91st |
| Texas A&M | 16th | 78th |
| Texas State | 90th | 12th |
| Texas Tech | 50th | 46th |
| Toledo | 84th | 24th |
| Troy | 8th | 92nd |
| Tulane | 33rd | 73rd |
| Tulsa | 68th | 28th |
| UAB | 16th | 81st |
| UCF | 19th | 82nd |
| UCLA | 61st | 36th |
| UConn | 84th | 26th |
| UNLV | 44th | 67th |
| USC | 80th | 12th |
| UTSA | 72nd | 20th |
| Utah | 96th | 7th |
| Utah State | 0th | 100th |
| Vanderbilt | 26th | 76th |
| Virginia | 51st | 39th |
| Virginia Tech | 66th | 33rd |
| Wake Forest | 98th | 4th |
| Washington | 40th | 58th |
| West Virginia | 73rd | 24th |
| Western Kentucky | 4th | 96th |
| Western Michigan | 29th | 68th |
| Wisconsin | 22nd | 84th |
| Wyoming | 46th | 52nd |
Duke’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time
Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 66th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 46th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.
Standard downs vs. passing downs
Does Duke hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?
21st percentile success on standard downs, 67th on passing downs — a 46-point gap between the two.
View all FBS teams as a table
| Team | Standard-downs percentile | Passing-downs percentile |
|---|---|---|
| Air Force | 98th | 23rd |
| Akron | 58th | 34th |
| Alabama | 77th | 57th |
| App State | 33rd | 49th |
| Arizona | 76th | 94th |
| Arizona State | 38th | 61st |
| Arkansas | 71st | 24th |
| Arkansas State | 85th | 59th |
| Army | 93rd | 58th |
| Auburn | 14th | 69th |
| BYU | 86th | 35th |
| Ball State | 31st | 52nd |
| Baylor | 15th | 46th |
| Boise State | 77th | 92nd |
| Boston College | 63rd | 28th |
| Bowling Green | 43rd | 21st |
| Buffalo | 9th | 11th |
| California | 11th | 20th |
| Central Michigan | 36th | 9th |
| Charlotte | 18th | 41st |
| Cincinnati | 68th | 83rd |
| Clemson | 7th | 39th |
| Coastal Carolina | 23rd | 64th |
| Colorado | 16th | 65th |
| Colorado State | 66th | 95th |
| Delaware | 59th | 64th |
| Duke | 21st | 67th |
| East Carolina | 37th | 19th |
| Eastern Michigan | 16th | 30th |
| Florida | 61st | 70th |
| Florida Atlantic | 67th | 87th |
| Florida International | 20th | 53rd |
| Florida State | 30th | 90th |
| Fresno State | 25th | 84th |
| Gardner-Webb | 5th | 23rd |
| Georgia | 98th | 89th |
| Georgia Southern | 60th | 71st |
| Georgia State | 68th | 66th |
| Georgia Tech | 53rd | 40th |
| Hawai'i | 48th | 29th |
| Houston | 87th | 99th |
| Illinois | 73rd | 91st |
| Indiana | 55th | 44th |
| Iowa | 79th | 13th |
| Iowa State | 18th | 31st |
| Jacksonville State | 82nd | 80th |
| James Madison | 45th | 77th |
| Kansas | 52nd | 18th |
| Kansas State | 64th | 68th |
| Kennesaw State | 61st | 16th |
| Kent State | 5th | 21st |
| Kentucky | 90th | 51st |
| LSU | 86th | 98th |
| Liberty | 93rd | 78th |
| Louisiana | 36th | 66th |
| Louisiana Tech | 26th | 79th |
| Louisville | 95th | 72nd |
| Maine | 0th | 86th |
| Marshall | 69th | 32nd |
| Maryland | 34th | 26th |
| Massachusetts | 35th | 38th |
| Memphis | 92nd | 93rd |
| Mercyhurst | 2nd | 34th |
| Miami | 99th | 95th |
| Miami (OH) | 50th | 43rd |
| Michigan | 10th | 89th |
| Michigan State | 23rd | 55th |
| Middle Tennessee | 27th | 64th |
| Minnesota | 32nd | 4th |
| Mississippi State | 66th | 59th |
| Missouri | 34th | 41st |
| Missouri State | 52nd | 30th |
| NC State | 62nd | 77th |
| Navy | 89th | 17th |
| Nebraska | 46th | 85th |
| Nevada | 28th | 27th |
| New Mexico | 55th | 48th |
| New Mexico State | 14th | 36th |
| Norfolk State | 7th | 0th |
| North Carolina | 89th | 73rd |
| North Dakota State | 30th | 45th |
| North Texas | 95th | 84th |
| Northern Illinois | 51st | 14th |
| Northwestern | 88th | 88th |
| Notre Dame | 100th | 43rd |
| Ohio | 82nd | 42nd |
| Ohio State | 84th | 80th |
| Oklahoma | 4th | 50th |
| Oklahoma State | 96th | 86th |
| Old Dominion | 1st | 36th |
| Ole Miss | 81st | 94th |
| Oregon | 39th | 26th |
| Oregon State | 97th | 70th |
| Penn State | 20th | 47th |
| Pittsburgh | 65th | 50th |
| Purdue | 57th | 82nd |
| Rice | 59th | 14th |
| Robert Morris | 2nd | 5th |
| Rutgers | 42nd | 81st |
| SMU | 91st | 82nd |
| Sacramento State | 13th | 6th |
| Sam Houston | 11th | 37th |
| San Diego State | 8th | 54th |
| San José State | 17th | 2nd |
| South Alabama | 44th | 74th |
| South Carolina | 70th | 56th |
| South Florida | 84th | 57th |
| Southern Miss | 48th | 7th |
| Stanford | 40th | 9th |
| Syracuse | 57th | 39th |
| TCU | 70th | 10th |
| Temple | 50th | 68th |
| Tennessee | 75th | 12th |
| Texas | 27th | 61st |
| Texas A&M | 46th | 55th |
| Texas State | 74th | 100th |
| Texas Tech | 64th | 76th |
| Toledo | 73rd | 52nd |
| Troy | 39th | 15th |
| Tulane | 12th | 8th |
| Tulsa | 49th | 7th |
| UAB | 24th | 62nd |
| UCF | 29th | 45th |
| UCLA | 80th | 60th |
| UConn | 72nd | 73rd |
| UL Monroe | 47th | 11th |
| UNLV | 41st | 19th |
| USC | 79th | 97th |
| UT Martin | 6th | 3rd |
| UTEP | 9th | 1st |
| UTSA | 91st | 33rd |
| Utah | 94th | 98th |
| Utah State | 3rd | 76th |
| Vanderbilt | 41st | 32nd |
| Virginia | 83rd | 2nd |
| Virginia Tech | 43rd | 91st |
| Wake Forest | 75th | 96th |
| Washington | 56th | 16th |
| Washington State | 19th | 5th |
| West Virginia | 54th | 75th |
| Western Kentucky | 22nd | 25th |
| Western Michigan | 32nd | 27th |
| Wisconsin | 25th | 22nd |
| Wyoming | 78th | 48th |
Duke by half
1st-half offense ranks 86th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 46th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.
How much of Duke’s number is the schedule?
Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.25; 75th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's 0.07. The widest gap came in week 6: 0.33 raw vs. 0.06 adjusted.
Tendency drift
How Duke’s current staff calls plays, year over year
Pass defense by zone
What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Duke’s passing game completes a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.9% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 204-play sample) — mid-pack, 47 of 136 qualifying offenses.
On short throws (≤19 air yards), Duke’s defense allows a completion rate below the FBS mean (65.4% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 191-play sample) — mid-pack, 48 of 137 qualifying defenses.
We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.
Havoc & trenches
Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.
Turnover luck
88% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.
7 of 8 forced fumbles recovered, 2026 only.
Takeaways
7% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.
2 interceptions of 27 disrupted passes (25 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.
Penalties
62 penalties committed, 69 drawn on opponents — netting a 34-yard field-position edge.
580 penalty yards committed vs. 614 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Ratings and comparisons
Ratings
Comparable teams
Most similar programs · Duke
Most similar programs · DukeReads like
Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.
Historical echo
Duke’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.
Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.
An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.
Weather
Wallace Wade Stadium, Durham, NC
Usual during the game around Nov 20: 50°, between 42° and 65° in about 7 in 10 games (22 games since 2016).
Road games since 2016: the middle game was 64°, and 8 in 10 ran between 43° and 81° (53 of 55 road games, at stadiums we cover).
What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time
Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure
Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.