The rest of the season
One real test left: No. 4 Notre Dame 33%
Win out 23% · expect 3.0 of 4 more wins
Miami's chance to win each game left, from our model: Notre Dame 33%, Duke 80%, Virginia Tech 90%, Boston College 97%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Playoff chance went from 58% to 85%, peaking at 85% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
Standing1st in the ACC · 6-0 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Darian Mensah 2,425 · Rushing Javian Mallory 495 · Receiving Malachi Toney 1,027 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Miami:athletics siteACCX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #10 | #97 | −24.5✓ +14.5 | @Stanford | W 45-6 132 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Mensah 401 · Rush Fletcher Jr. 40 · Rec Toney 234 |
| 2 | Sep 10 | #10 | #211 | −59.5✓ +10.5 | Florida A&M | W 77-7 120 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Mensah 252 · Rush Mallory 142 · Rec Toney 96 |
| 3 | Sep 18 | #7 | #80 | −20.5✗ −7.5 | @Wake Forest | W 33-20 130 | 3-0 | 2-0 | Pass Mensah 220 · Rush Fletcher Jr. 85 · Rec Toney 114 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #9 | #131 | −41.5✓ +7.5 | Central Michigan | W 52-3 119 | 4-0 | 2-0 | Pass Mensah 338 · Rush Wheatley-Humphrey 104 · Rec Toney 120 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #8 | #27 | −14✓ +14 | @Clemson | W 41-13 137 | 5-0 | 3-0 | Pass Mensah 227 · Rush Fletcher Jr. 77 · Rec Barkate 98 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #7 | #63 | −20.5✗ −12.5 | Florida State | W 43-35 142 Firestorm | 6-0 | 4-0 | Pass Mensah 326 · Rush Mallory 108 · Rec Toney 154 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #5 | #48 | −20.5✓ +8.5 | Pittsburgh | W 52-23 137 | 7-0 | 5-0 | Pass Mensah 387 · Rush Mallory 47 · Rec Toney 194 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #5 | #67 | −13.5✗ −10.5 | @North Carolina | W 38-35 126 Firestorm | 8-0 | 6-0 | Pass Mensah 274 · Rush Mallory 51 · Rec Toney 75 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #5 | #1 | +5.5 | @Notre Dame | 7:30 pm ET · NBC33% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #5 | #39 | −21 | Duke | time TBA · ABC80% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | −16.5 | Virginia Tech | time TBA90% to win | |||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | Boston College | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Miami, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Miami: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @North Carolina | W 38-35 | 416 | 0 | 29:09 | +0.406 | 56.5% | 1.07 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 24 | Pittsburgh | W 52-23 | 506 | 0 | 36:20 | +0.365 | 40.8% | 1.69 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | Florida State | W 43-35 | 583 | 1 | 37:20 | +0.260 | 44.3% | 1.51 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Clemson | W 41-13 | 419 | 0 | 32:29 | +0.327 | 51.6% | 1.16 | Blowout win |
| Sep 26 | Central Michigan | W 52-3 | 572 | 0 | 31:10 | +0.405 | 58.8% | 1.26 | Blowout win |
| Sep 18 | @Wake Forest | W 33-20 | 378 | 0 | 33:24 | +0.251 | 44.1% | 1.14 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 10 | Florida A&M | W 77-7 | 856 | 1 | 37:00 | +0.631 | 69.3% | 1.32 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 4 | @Stanford | W 45-6 | 549 | 2 | 36:34 | +0.461 | 55.1% | 1.35 | Blowout win |
| Season average (8 games) | 535 | 0.5 | +0.388 | 52.6% | 1.31 | ||||
Miami's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
No. 3 Ohio State
First-round bye
Our simulation's projected field as of Nov 4, from 20,000 simulated seasons. Seeds move every week; this is not the committee's bracket.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
9-1 over the last 10, and won the last eight.
Yeah, I think the history of it, the why, you know, it goes way back with the war and the agreement between presidents
85% now · ▲ 2 points in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
Range of outcomes · Miami · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
9 wins 2%; 10 wins 19%; 11 wins 56%; 12 wins 23%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 8-0
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among ACC teams the same season
Miami was one game — at home, in the title game — from bringing The U all the way back, and lost it to Indiana by six. Twenty-five years of waiting, and the album still isn't the one.
Fans here believe the take that 'The U' is nostalgia — that the swagger died with the 80s and 90s and Miami has coasted on old highlights for twenty years. The 2025 run was the program's argument…
Miami · Game-day weather
Typical at Hard Rock Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 88, noon Saturdays 62
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 114 at noon, 113 at 3:30 pm, 113 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Miami is the program that invented swagger and is still deciding what it owes that legacy.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Fans and ratings
Fan confidence lower than any point since 2020
13th percentile among FBS programs
70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #1, Adam Lichtenstein (South Florida Sun-Sentinel), to #3, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com).
Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Miami · 2026