No. 6 Miami routs Central Michigan 52-3

Central Michigan2-23
No. 6 Miami4-052Final
Sat, Sep 26 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Fla. · Crowd 65,338The CW

No. 6 Miami routed Central Michigan 52-3.

We had Miami favored. It won.

Top comment in the game thread

ACC refs are like no other

Q3 8:34 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 26

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Miami a 97% chance, and the closing betting line (Miami was a 41.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Miami led by 4 after the first quarter and by 32 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+49+49
Fumble return TDMiami · Q3 6:00
FinalMiami 52-3 Central MichiganMiami wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
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50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4MiamiWon52-3ScoresFumble return TDMiamiCentral…Miami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 5 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 8 comments a minuteMiami fans: 6 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4MiamiLowest 0%Lost3-52ScoresFumble return TDC. MichiganMiamiCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 5 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 8 comments a minuteMiami fans: 6 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minute
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4MiamiLowest 0%Lost3-52ScoresFumble return TDCentral…MiamiCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 1 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteCentral Michigan fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 5 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 8 comments a minuteMiami fans: 6 comments a minuteMiami fans: 4 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 3 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 2 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 1 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minuteMiami fans: 0 comments a minute

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

  1. Q1 11:23Miami fans panic over offensive line struggles after a three-and-out driveOnly one drive but starting to panic about that offensive line.r/CFB game threadThis team better shape up or conference play will not be kind to us.r/CFB game thread
  2. Q1 5:56Central Michigan scores a field goal to take a 3-0 lead over MiamiIn my very non-biased opinion, I think we've seen enough and the game should be called.r/CFB game thread
  3. Q1 1:58Mallory runs for a touchdown as Miami fans mock Central MichiganThere’s the TDr/CFB game thread
  4. Q2 3:22Miami fans celebrate the 28-3 lead and look ahead to ClemsonWell next week is Clemsonr/CFB game threadthank you duke. incredible trade this off-season.r/CFB game thread
  5. Q3 8:34Miami fans rage at phantom OPI call on Mensah pass to JacobsQuoted at the top of the page.Do these refs get paid per flag?r/CFB game thread
Miami’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Miami -41.5), at 99% for Miami (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Miami or Central Michigan flair (281 and 25); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Miami’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 13:18Mensah sacked for a 10-yd lossQ1, 13:18 · Miami 0, Central Michigan 00-0score after the play0-0score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  2. Q1, 1:58Mallory 4-yd TD runMiami goes ahead 7-3Q1, 1:58 · Miami 7, Central Michigan 37-3score after the play7-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  3. Q2, 12:47Mensah 11-yd TD pass to UpshawMiami leads 14-3Q2, 12:47 · Miami 14, Central Michigan 314-3score after the play14-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  4. Q2, 9:45Mensah 8-yd TD pass to ToneyMiami leads 21-3Q2, 9:45 · Miami 21, Central Michigan 321-3score after the play21-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  5. Q2, 3:22Mensah 13-yd TD pass to BarkateMiami leads 28-3Q2, 3:22 · Miami 28, Central Michigan 328-3score after the play28-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  6. Q2, 0:06Mensah 5-yd TD runMiami leads 35-3Q2, 0:06 · Miami 35, Central Michigan 335-3score after the play35-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  7. Q3, 9:42Glasser sacked for a 8-yd loss, fumbles; personal foul on Canestouchdown nullifiedQ3, 9:42 · Miami 35, Central Michigan 335-3score after the play35-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  8. Q3, 6:00Lyle fumbles, Meriweather returns it for a TDMiami leads 42-3Q3, 6:00 · Miami 42, Central Michigan 342-3score after the play42-3score after the playWatch the playACC Digital Network
  9. Q4, 10:29Wheatley-Humphrey 35-yd TD runMiami leads 52-3Q4, 10:29 · Miami 52, Central Michigan 352-3score after the play52-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network
  10. Q4, 3:06Glasser intercepted by Jennings at the CANES07returned 24 yardsQ4, 3:06 · Miami 52, Central Michigan 352-3score after the play52-3score after the playWatch from this playACC Digital Network

Every drive

Miami scored on 7 of its 10 drives; Central Michigan on 1 of its 10.

Miami’s drives are teal, Central Michigan’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Miami: Punt, from 75 yards out to 65PuntCentral Michigan: Field goal, from 71 yards out to 31Field goalMiami: Touchdown, from 71 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 70PuntQ2Miami: Touchdown, from 69 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 73FumbleMiami: Touchdown, from 27 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 80PuntMiami: Touchdown, from 66 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 50PuntMiami: Touchdown, from 97 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: End of half, from 75 yards out to 72End of halfQ3Central Michigan: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 37FumbleMiami: Fumble Return returned for a touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0Fumble Return TDCentral Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 72PuntMiami: Field goal, from 49 yards out to 15Field goalQ4Central Michigan: Punt, from 75 yards out to 73PuntMiami: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownCentral Michigan: Interception, from 75 yards out to 30InterceptionMiami: End of game, from 69 yards out to 47End of game
“Honestly best part of this thread is just FireUpChips247 holding it down for his whole team. Good for him. Respect.”
A Miami fan

When fans got loud

Roaring

The biggest reaction came in the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was roaring; the crowd was quiet.

A large share of the loudest stretch was about the officiating.

FirstSecondThirdFourthMiami fansCentral Michigan fansusual

Fans of both teams were loud at once in the bracketed stretch.

“Will they show us the penalty?”
A Miami fan

What it cost

Miami’s chance to make the playoff fell from 70% to 68%.

Make the playoff

Central Michigan · lost0% → 0%
Miami · won70% → ▼68%70%▼ 68%

Win the conference

Central Michigan · lost2% → 2%
Miami · won60% → ▼58%60%▼ 58%

Before the game (September 25, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Miami 52, Central Michigan 3

Miami covered −41.5 by 7.5. The total, 55, went over 52.5.

Central MichiganMiamiTotal yardsCentral Michigan 158Miami 572158572Passing yardsCentral Michigan 137Miami 371137371Rushing yardsCentral Michigan 21Miami 20121201First downsCentral Michigan 10Miami 311031TurnoversCentral Michigan 3Miami 030Time of possessionCentral Michigan 28:50Miami 31:1028:5031:10
Team totalsCentral MichiganMiami
Total yards158572
Passing21 of 26, 137 yds27 of 34, 371 yds
Rushing25 for 21 yds34 for 201 yds
First downs1031
Third down6 of 146 of 9
Fourth down0 of 01 of 1
Turnovers30
Penalties6 for 36 yds13 for 107 yds
Time of possession28:5031:10

Central Michigan leaders

  • Passing Jadyn Glasser 13 of 15, 88 yds, 1 INT
  • Rushing Nicholas Woodford 6 for 21 yds; Jayden Clerveaux 6 for 13 yds
  • Receiving Tayte Vanderleest 1 for 24 yds; Langston Lewis 2 for 22 yds

Miami leaders

  • Passing Darian Mensah 23 of 27, 338 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Chris Wheatley-Humphrey 11 for 104 yds, 1 TD; Girard Pringle Jr. 7 for 38 yds
  • Receiving Malachi Toney 6 for 120 yds, 1 TD; Cooper Barkate 4 for 47 yds, 1 TD

No rain and calm

83° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 5 mph from the north, gusts to 12

September game-day temperatures at Hard Rock Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Miami favoredCentral Michigan favored100%Win chanceMiamiRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mph
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Miami favoredCentral Michigan favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:49 left6:41 p.m.
Central Michigan 0, Miami 0 · Miami 99% to win
no rain · wind 8 mph from the north, gusts to 14 · 83°
Mensah 7-yd pass to Lofton
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Hollywood/n. Perry airport, 2.9 miles away, and Miami/opa Locka airport, 4.3 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Central Michigan · 2-1

Rated 120th in our preseason ratings, 131st now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 14-point win over Wyoming as a 1.5-point underdog.

Last three games

Miami · 3-0

Rated 10th in our preseason ratings, 9th now.

Three straight wins, one over ranked or top-40 competition.

W 77-7 vs Florida A&M #216 of 668

won by 70 as a 59.5-point favorite

Miami won 77-7 vs Florida A&M. Never in doubt.

Week by week

Miami

Wk 1: W 45-6 at Stanford▲39StanfordWk 2: W 77-7 vs Florida A&M▲70Florida A&MWk 3: W 33-20 at Wake Forest▲13Wake Forest
  • Wk 1Wat Stanford45-6
  • Wk 2Wvs Florida A&M77-7
  • Wk 3Wat Wake Forest33-20

Central Michigan

Wk 1: L 7-38 at New Mexico▼31New MexicoWk 2: W 13-10 vs Colgate▲3ColgateWk 3: W 24-10 vs Wyoming▲14Wyoming
  • Wk 1Lat New Mexico7-38
  • Wk 2Wvs Colgate13-10
  • Wk 3Wvs Wyoming24-10

Power rating by week

Miami is rated 14.9 points ahead as of week 3. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

143-7Wk 0Wk 2Wk 3MiamiCentral Michigan

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Miami’s EPA/play against Central Michigan, 81 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

  1. Miami’s EPA/play against Central Michigan’s defense

    81 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Miami offense, 100th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 19th

  2. Central Michigan’s passing EPA against Miami’s defense

    68 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Central Michigan offense, 3rd percentile · Miami defense, 71st

  3. Miami’s explosive plays against Central Michigan’s defense

    24 pointsweakerstronger50th

    Miami offense, 68th percentile · Central Michigan defense, 92nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Central MichiganMiami
EPA/play, offense
Central Michigan · 25Miami · 100
EPA/play, defense
Central Michigan · 19Miami · 87
Success rate, offense
Central Michigan · 11Miami · 99
Success rate, defense
Central Michigan · 8Miami · 89
Explosive-play rate, offense
Central Michigan · 56Miami · 68
Explosive-play rate, defense
Central Michigan · 92Miami · 59
Rush EPA, offense
Central Michigan · 53Miami · 58
Rush EPA, defense
Central Michigan…Miami · 93
Pass EPA, offense
Central Michigan · 3Miami · 100
Pass EPA, defense
Central Michigan · 54Miami · 71

The series

Miami leads the series 1-0

1 meeting since 2019 · Miami won the last meeting

  • 2019Miami 17-12Miami won 17-12 vs Central Michigan. Chance to win started at 96%, low 84%, high 99%.

Each line is Miami’s chance to win through that meeting.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Miami fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (40th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

50-50Model 97% · Line 100%Miami fans · 40thCentral Michigan fans · 47thCentral MichiganMiami

Miami favored by 41.5 · Total 52.5

How games like this usually go

Miami by 41.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The spread moved 1 point toward Central Michigan.

opened −42.5now −41.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 54.5now 52.5

Spread: −42.5 → −41.5 · Total: 54.5 → 52.5

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 82° at kickoff.

Central Michigan at Miami · Saturday, Sept. 26, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens

  • 82°feels like at kickoff
  • Dryno rain at kickoff
  • 92weather score, Comfortable
  • Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At Hard Rock Stadium that day, a 7 pm kickoff would have scored 94, against 92 at 6 pm.

  • noon: 69, Rough
  • 12:45 pm: 68, Rough
  • 2 pm: 66, Rough
  • 3:30 pm: 68, Rough
  • 4 pm: 71, Rough
  • 5 pm: 79, Mixed
  • 6 pm: 92, Comfortable (this game)
  • 7 pm: 94, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

Home field

Miami has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +1.0 points (±4.0), home against road — 6th percentile of FBS.

70% at home, 60% on the road against FBS opponents (33-14 home, 26-17 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.7 at home vs. away over 98 games — inside the ±6.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 1,244 miles to get here.

Where next