The rest of the season
One real test left: Lehigh 35%
Win out 28% · expect 2.1 of 3 more wins
Colgate Raiders's chance to win each game left, from our model: Lehigh 35%, Lafayette 87%, Bucknell 91%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jake Stearney 1,623 · Rushing Daniel Shaban 529 · Receiving Matt Fogler 843 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | @Fordham | W 24-14 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Stearney 159 · Rush Shaban 214 · Rec Fogler 45 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Holy Cross | W 35-10 | 2-0 | 2-0 | Pass Stearney 278 · Rush Shaban 94 · Rec Fogler 153 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Central Michigan | L 10-13 125 | 2-1 | 2-0 | Pass Stearney 124 · Rush Shaban 87 · Rec Phillips 43 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Cornell | W 20-7 | 3-1 | 2-0 | Pass Stearney 170 · Rush Shaban 134 · Rec Fogler 137 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Villanova | W 28-21 | 4-1 | 3-0 | Pass Stearney 158 · Rush Naumann 66 · Rec Fogler 93 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Harvard | L 17-20 | 4-2 | 3-0 | Pass Stearney 188 · Rush Naumann 88 · Rec Fogler 138 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Georgetown | L 17-27 | 4-3 | 3-1 | Pass Tomasso 119 · Rush Fulton 65 · Rec Fogler 64 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Richmond | L 6-13 | 4-4 | 3-2 | Pass Stearney 312 · Rush Fulton 16 · Rec Fogler 180 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | William & Mary | W 37-0 | 5-4 | 4-2 | Pass Stearney 234 · Rush Fulton 89 · Rec Way 141 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Lehigh | 12 pm ET35% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Lafayette | 1 pm ET87% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Bucknell | 1 pm ET91% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Colgate Raiders, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | William & Mary | W 37-0 | — | — | — | +0.223 | 54.9% | 1.01 | Best success rate |
| Oct 24 | @Richmond | L 6-13 | — | — | — | −0.146 | 34.7% | 1.43 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Georgetown | L 17-27 | — | — | — | −0.018 | 41.5% | 0.81 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | @Harvard | L 17-20 | — | — | — | +0.092 | 37.1% | 1.12 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Villanova | W 28-21 | — | — | — | +0.148 | 47.0% | 1.14 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Cornell | W 20-7 | — | — | — | +0.117 | 42.7% | 1.03 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | @Central Michigan | L 10-13 | 219 | 4 | 27:19 | −0.107 | 37.5% | 0.87 | One-score loss |
| Sep 5 | Holy Cross | W 35-10 | — | — | — | +0.360 | 44.8% | 1.73 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 28 | @Fordham | W 24-14 | — | — | — | −0.005 | 52.0% | 0.91 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 219 | 4.0 | +0.074 | 43.6% | 1.12 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Range of outcomes · Colgate Raiders · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
6 wins 13%; 7 wins 58%; 8 wins 28%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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Range of outcomes · Colgate Raiders · 2026