The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Lehigh 13%, Colgate 13%, William & Mary 54%
Win out 1% · expect 0.8 of 3 more wins
Lafayette Leopards's chance to win each game left, from our model: William & Mary 54%, Colgate 13%, Lehigh 13%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Daniel Lipovski 791 · Rushing Jakyre Henley 599 · Receiving Mason Kuehner 550 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @Georgetown | 7 pm ET53% to win | |||
| 1 | Sep 5 | @UConn | L 7-56 145 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lipovski 102 · Rush Gamble 28 · Rec Bierman 30 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Marist | W 13-9 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Lipovski 136 · Rush Henley 77 · Rec Kuehner 80 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Columbia | L 34-40 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Lipovski 127 · Rush Henley 133 · Rec Kuehner 58 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Holy Cross | L 30-38 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Lipovski 306 · Rush Lipovski 21 · Rec Kuehner 152 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Richmond | L 31-40 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass Lipovski 101 · Rush Henley 152 · Rec Kuehner 108 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Bucknell | W 20-7 | 2-4 | 1-2 | Pass Jordan 158 · Rush Henley 121 · Rec Kuehner 55 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Fordham | W 31-17 | 3-4 | 2-2 | Pass Jordan 199 · Rush Henley 67 · Rec Persing 89 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Villanova | L 21-44 | 3-5 | 2-3 | Pass Jordan 144 · Rush Penza 40 · Rec Hosak 45 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @William & Mary | 1 pm ET54% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Colgate | 1 pm ET13% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Lehigh | 12:30 pm ET | |||
Win chances are our model for Lafayette Leopards, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Villanova | L 21-44 | — | — | — | −0.216 | 39.1% | 1.19 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Fordham | W 31-17 | — | — | — | +0.421 | 51.1% | 1.35 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Bucknell | W 20-7 | — | — | — | +0.050 | 38.8% | 1.06 | |
| Oct 3 | Richmond | L 31-40 | — | — | — | +0.087 | 31.9% | 2.18 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | Holy Cross | L 30-38 | — | — | — | −0.056 | 36.2% | 1.41 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | @Columbia | L 34-40 | — | — | — | +0.084 | 33.3% | 1.62 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Marist | W 13-9 | — | — | — | −0.094 | 33.8% | 1.11 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | @UConn | L 7-56 | 209 | 0 | 28:18 | −0.158 | 27.8% | 0.90 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 209 | 0.0 | +0.015 | 36.5% | 1.35 | ||||
Live
Live now
at Georgetown · Thu Aug 27 · 7 pm ET
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Lafayette Leopards · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 16%; 4 wins 43%; 5 wins 33%; 6 wins 7%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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The half of The Rivalry that won the first game 56-0 and has been chasing vindication ever since.
The half of The Rivalry that won the first game 56-0 and has been chasing vindication ever since.
Range of outcomes · Lafayette Leopards · 2026