The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Harvard 4%, Brown 13%, Cornell 20%
Win out <1% · expect 0.4 of 3 more wins
Columbia Lions's chance to win each game left, from our model: Harvard 4%, Brown 13%, Cornell 20%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Chase Goodwin 1,905 · Rushing Griffin Johnson 575 · Receiving Bryce Coleman 637 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Sep 19 | Lafayette | W 40-34 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Goodwin 367 · Rush Johnson 124 · Rec Coleman 127 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Georgetown | W 20-17 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Goodwin 277 · Rush Johnson 121 · Rec Crow 83 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Princeton | L 7-35 | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass Goodwin 331 · Rush Johnson 63 · Rec Coleman 89 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | @Marist | W 41-28 | 3-1 | 0-1 | Pass Goodwin 277 · Rush Johnson 98 · Rec Crow 105 |
| 7 | Oct 16 | @Pennsylvania | W 28-27 | 4-1 | 1-1 | Pass Goodwin 237 · Rush Johnson 80 · Rec Coleman 90 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Dartmouth | L 18-38 | 4-2 | 1-2 | Pass Goodwin 209 · Rush Johnson 73 · Rec Crow 94 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Yale | L 8-26 | 4-3 | 1-3 | Pass Goodwin 207 · Rush Johnson 16 · Rec Coleman 108 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Harvard | 1 pm ET4% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Brown | 12 pm ET13% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Cornell | 12 pm ET20% to win |
Win chances are our model for Columbia Lions, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Yale | L 8-26 | — | — | — | −0.248 | 31.9% | 1.00 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Dartmouth | L 18-38 | — | — | — | −0.080 | 41.9% | 1.10 | |
| Oct 16 | @Pennsylvania | W 28-27 | — | — | — | −0.085 | 37.0% | 1.23 | One-score win |
| Oct 9 | @Marist | W 41-28 | — | — | — | +0.295 | 50.0% | 1.34 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Princeton | L 7-35 | — | — | — | −0.040 | 42.9% | 1.10 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | @Georgetown | W 20-17 | — | — | — | −0.088 | 43.6% | 1.09 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 19 | Lafayette | W 40-34 | — | — | — | +0.090 | 51.3% | 1.10 | Best success rate |
| Season average (7 games) | — | — | −0.022 | 42.7% | 1.14 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · Columbia Lions · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 67%; 5 wins 29%; 6 wins 4%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-3
Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Ivy teams the same season
Columbia Lions is 4-3 and plays at Harvard next.
Columbia Lions is 4-3 and plays at Harvard next.
Range of outcomes · Columbia Lions · 2026