The rest of the season
One real test left: Butler 20%
Win out 15% · expect 1.9 of 3 more wins
Marist's chance to win each game left, from our model: Morehead State 86%, Butler 20%, Davidson 85%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Sonny Mannino 1,966 · Rushing Isaiah Simmons 610 · Receiving Zach Garmont 481 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | @New Haven | L 21-22 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mannino 70 · Rush Decaro 44 · Rec Taylor 42 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | Franklin Pierce | W 27-18 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Mannino 203 · Rush Mannino 110 · Rec Garmont 64 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Lafayette | L 9-13 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Mannino 291 · Rush Simmons 28 · Rec Taylor 90 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | Presbyterian | W 42-7 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Mannino 198 · Rush Mannino 63 · Rec Shumpert 68 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Stetson | W 28-14 | 3-2 | 2-0 | Pass Mannino 210 · Rush Simmons 85 · Rec Martinez 71 |
| 6 | Oct 9 | Columbia | L 28-41 | 3-3 | 2-0 | Pass Mannino 321 · Rush Simmons 76 · Rec Shumpert 105 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Drake | W 27-22 | 4-3 | 3-0 | Pass Mannino 215 · Rush Simmons 108 · Rec Garmont 156 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | St. Thomas (MN) | L 13-35 | 4-4 | 3-1 | Pass Mannino 193 · Rush Simmons 41 · Rec Taylor 91 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @San Diego | L 40-41 | 4-5 | 3-2 | Pass Mannino 265 · Rush Simmons 182 · Rec Taylor 124 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Morehead State | 12 pm ET86% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Butler | 12 pm ET20% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Davidson | 1 pm ET85% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Marist, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @San Diego | L 40-41 | — | — | — | +0.319 | 44.6% | 1.53 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | St. Thomas (MN) | L 13-35 | — | — | — | −0.287 | 38.2% | 1.28 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Drake | W 27-22 | — | — | — | +0.245 | 52.5% | 1.11 | One-score win |
| Oct 9 | Columbia | L 28-41 | — | — | — | +0.067 | 44.6% | 1.43 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | @Stetson | W 28-14 | — | — | — | +0.119 | 33.9% | 1.44 | |
| Sep 26 | Presbyterian | W 42-7 | — | — | — | +0.220 | 52.6% | 0.98 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 12 | @Lafayette | L 9-13 | — | — | — | −0.028 | 35.2% | 1.51 | One-score loss |
| Sep 4 | Franklin Pierce | W 27-18 | — | — | — | +0.377 | 54.1% | 1.19 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 28 | @New Haven | L 21-22 | — | — | — | −0.103 | 19.1% | 1.55 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.103 | 41.6% | 1.34 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · Marist · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 2%; 5 wins 20%; 6 wins 64%; 7 wins 15%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season
Marist is 4-5 and hosts Morehead State next.
Marist is 4-5 and hosts Morehead State next.
Range of outcomes · Marist · 2026