Pioneer San Diego

Record4-5through 9 games
Nextat DrakeSat Nov 7 · 1 pm ET

LeadersPassing Dom Nankil 2,449 · Rushing Adam Criter 746 · Receiving Elijah Taylor 845 All player stats

The model#67 among FCS teams

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

Schedule and results

San Diego · 2026 schedule and results4-5Hard slateAverage opponent win rate 59% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.
WkDateOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5UC DavisL 17-49San Diego lost 17-49 vs UC Davis. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 51%.0-10-0Pass Nankil 177 · Rush Criter 54 · Rec Monach 72
2Sep 12@Idaho StateL 17-59San Diego lost 17-59 at Idaho State. Chance to win started at 6%, low under 1%, high 7%.0-20-0Pass Nankil 122 · Rush Mbakwe 63 · Rec Taylor 34
3Sep 19@Cal PolyW 38-35San Diego won 38-35 at Cal Poly. Chance to win started at 7%, low 7%, high better than 99%.1-20-0Pass Nankil 236 · Rush Criter 179 · Rec Monach 87
4Sep 26@St. Thomas (MN)L 17-50San Diego lost 17-50 at St. Thomas (MN). Chance to win started at 24%, low under 1%, high 24%.1-30-1Pass Nankil 323 · Rush Criter 57 · Rec Taylor 113
5Oct 3DavidsonW 63-142-31-1Pass Nankil 321 · Rush Criter 75 · Rec Monach 124
6Oct 10@ButlerL 10-41San Diego lost 10-41 at Butler. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 52%.2-41-2Pass Nankil 295 · Rush Mbakwe 12 · Rec Taylor 100
7Oct 17ValparaisoW 38-13San Diego won 38-13 vs Valparaiso. Chance to win started at 73%, low 73%, high better than 99%.3-42-2Pass Nankil 140 · Rush Criter 136 · Rec Taylor 82
8Oct 24@DaytonL 32-37San Diego lost 32-37 at Dayton. Chance to win started at 26%, low under 1%, high 65%.3-52-3Pass Nankil 471 · Rush Criter 57 · Rec Taylor 204
9Oct 31MaristW 41-40San Diego won 41-40 vs Marist. Chance to win started at 66%, low 33%, high better than 99%.4-53-3Pass Nankil 364 · Rush Criter 117 · Rec Taylor 138
10Nov 7@Drake1 pm ET51% to win
11Bye week
12Nov 21Stetson8 pm ET90% to win
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for San Diego, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 31MaristW 41-40———+0.29357.3%1.14One-score win
Oct 24@DaytonL 32-37———+0.26748.3%1.18One-score loss
Oct 17ValparaisoW 38-13———+0.13244.2%1.11
Oct 10@ButlerL 10-41———−0.15235.2%1.39Season-low EPA/play
Oct 3DavidsonW 63-14———+0.53252.9%1.47Season-high EPA/play
Sep 26@St. Thomas (MN)L 17-50———−0.01533.7%1.46Blowout loss
Sep 19@Cal PolyW 38-35———+0.43258.4%1.11Best success rate
Sep 12@Idaho StateL 17-59———−0.02837.0%1.19Defense's roughest night
Sep 5UC DavisL 17-49———−0.03235.3%0.87Blowout loss
Season average (9 games)——+0.15944.7%1.21

Ahead

The forecast

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Next: Drakeat Drake · on the road

Recent form · last 10 games

San Diego has won three of its last five.

5-5 over the last 10, and won the last one.

Streak W1Last 5 · 3-2Last 10 · 5-5

Range of outcomes · San Diego · 2026

San Diego’s base case is 5-7, mid-table finish. The floor is 4-8; the ceiling is 7-5.

What each outcome looks like
Floor4-8Sub-.500 season. Playoff bid out of reach.
Base5-7Mid-table finish. Conference title a stretch.
Ceiling7-5Conference title race. Playoff bid in play.

No season-path projection for this program yet, so this is the 4-5 record so far plus the 3 games left, with a two-win swing down and a three-win swing up.

More in this tab

Worth watchingGames average 68 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5

Game feel68shootoutscombined pts / game2nd highest-scoring of 11 in the Pioneer
Heart rate2-1some dramain one-score games (3 of 9)6th most one-score games of 11 in the Pioneer
Margin−7.2competitiveavg scoring margin6th best margin of 11 in the Pioneer
Big plays1.21grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)9th most explosive of 11 in the Pioneer
Home crowd2,887avg attendance6th biggest crowds of 11 in the Pioneer

Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

San Diego is 4-5 and plays at Drake next.

2026 Record4-5
Read the full program story ↓
Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

San Diego is 4-5 and plays at Drake next.

CFB Zeitgeist “Go Toreros.”
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site