The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Dayton 1%, Marist 15%, Stetson 50%
Win out <1% · expect 0.7 of 3 more wins
Davidson's chance to win each game left, from our model: Stetson 50%, Dayton 1%, Marist 15%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Casey Bullock 1,930 · Rushing Casey Bullock 512 · Receiving Jacary Lightsey 557 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Concord | L 35-41 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Bullock 241 · Rush Bullock 81 · Rec Lightsey 65 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Elon | L 0-38 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Bullock 174 · Rush Tzoumakas 25 · Rec Lightsey 72 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Dickinson | W 28-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Bullock 293 · Rush Jones 77 · Rec Adams 109 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | VMI | W 27-24 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Bullock 288 · Rush Bullock 104 · Rec Lightsey 102 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Drake | L 32-51 | 2-3 | 0-1 | Pass Bullock 345 · Rush Bullock 29 · Rec Lightsey 170 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @San Diego | L 14-63 | 2-4 | 0-2 | Pass Bullock 170 · Rush Bullock 21 · Rec Frazier 47 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Presbyterian | L 21-38 | 2-5 | 0-3 | Pass Bullock 124 · Rush Bullock 74 · Rec Frazier 77 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Morehead State | W 34-31 | 3-5 | 1-3 | Pass Bullock 174 · Rush Bullock 147 · Rec Adams 66 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 7-35 | 3-6 | 1-4 | Pass Bullock 121 · Rush Berg 33 · Rec Adams 56 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Stetson | 1 pm ET50% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Dayton | 12 pm ET1% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Marist | 1 pm ET15% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Davidson, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @St. Thomas (MN) | L 7-35 | — | — | — | −0.332 | 29.0% | 1.01 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | Morehead State | W 34-31 | — | — | — | +0.230 | 40.6% | 1.38 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | @Presbyterian | L 21-38 | — | — | — | −0.259 | 31.0% | 1.25 | |
| Oct 3 | @San Diego | L 14-63 | — | — | — | −0.253 | 31.9% | 1.22 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | Drake | L 32-51 | — | — | — | +0.274 | 38.7% | 1.58 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | VMI | W 27-24 | — | — | — | +0.171 | 40.5% | 1.13 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | Dickinson | W 28-14 | — | — | — | −0.035 | 43.2% | 1.07 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | Elon | L 0-38 | — | — | — | −0.140 | 25.0% | 1.44 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 27 | Concord | L 35-41 | — | — | — | −0.007 | 33.3% | 1.69 | Most explosive |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | −0.039 | 34.8% | 1.31 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Davidson · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 42%; 4 wins 50%; 5 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-6
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Pioneer teams the same season
Davidson is the ultra-selective North Carolina college that revived football in 1996 after a half-century gap — a team that exists because the school decided academics were the whole point, and football belonged inside that frame.
Davidson is the ultra-selective North Carolina college that revived football in 1996 after a half-century gap — a team that exists because the school decided academics were the whole point, and football belonged inside that frame.
Range of outcomes · Davidson · 2026