The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Tennessee Tech <1%, Furman 8%, The Citadel 16%
Win out <1% · expect 0.2 of 3 more wins
VMI's chance to win each game left, from our model: Tennessee Tech <1%, The Citadel 16%, Furman 8%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Ian Reynolds 537 · Rushing Leo Boehling 386 · Receiving Traveion Slaughter 144 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Idaho State | L 10-38 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Crump 16 · Rush Wilson 62 · Rec Cox 6 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Virginia Tech | L 3-73 128 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Crump 54 · Rush Slaughter 21 · Rec Hardnett 33 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Bucknell | L 3-14 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Reynolds 155 · Rush Reynolds 26 · Rec Cox 49 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Davidson | L 24-27 | 0-4 | 0-0 | Pass Reynolds 135 · Rush Boehling 102 · Rec Hardnett 79 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Samford | L 7-45 | 0-5 | 0-1 | Pass Reynolds 61 · Rush Boehling 74 · Rec Morris 32 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Mercer | L 3-54 | 0-6 | 0-2 | Pass Reynolds 33 · Rush Shipe 37 · Rec Cox 20 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Wofford | L 14-41 | 0-7 | 0-3 | Pass Reynolds 36 · Rush Slaughter 75 · Rec Shipe 13 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | East Tennessee State | L 0-38 | 0-8 | 0-4 | Pass Reynolds 13 · Rush Crump 54 · Rec Slaughter 12 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Chattanooga | L 10-24 | 0-9 | 0-5 | Pass Reynolds 71 · Rush Boehling 40 · Rec Trump 40 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Tennessee Tech | 2:30 pm ET<1% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | The Citadel | 12 pm ET16% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Furman | 12 pm ET8% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for VMI, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Chattanooga | L 10-24 | — | — | — | −0.040 | 35.1% | 1.25 | |
| Oct 24 | East Tennessee State | L 0-38 | — | — | — | −0.102 | 20.9% | 1.42 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | @Wofford | L 14-41 | — | — | — | −0.186 | 24.1% | 1.33 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 3 | Mercer | L 3-54 | — | — | — | −0.218 | 16.7% | 1.50 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | @Samford | L 7-45 | — | — | — | −0.264 | 37.0% | 0.91 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Davidson | L 24-27 | — | — | — | −0.142 | 33.9% | 1.13 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Bucknell | L 3-14 | — | — | — | −0.012 | 29.7% | 1.44 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Virginia Tech | L 3-73 | 83 | 1 | 31:27 | −0.445 | 8.8% | 1.85 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Idaho State | L 10-38 | — | — | — | −0.187 | 23.4% | 1.22 | Blowout loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 83 | 1.0 | −0.177 | 25.5% | 1.34 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
0-10 over the last 10, and lost the last ten.
Range of outcomes · VMI · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
0 wins 77%; 1 wins 22%; 2 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 0-9
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
VMI is the military college that finally broke through in 2020 after 39 years without a winning season — the Keydets are rebuilding under Danny Rocco, trying to prove the breakthrough wasn't a one-hit wonder.
VMI is the military college that finally broke through in 2020 after 39 years without a winning season — the Keydets are rebuilding under Danny Rocco, trying to prove the breakthrough wasn't a one-hit wonder.
Range of outcomes · VMI · 2026