The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Chattanooga 22%, The Citadel 49%
Win out 10% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
Furman's chance to win each game left, from our model: The Citadel 49%, Chattanooga 22%, VMI 92%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Connor Ackerley 1,010 · Rushing Ben Croasdale 436 · Receiving Luke Shields 445 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Furman:athletics siteSouthernXYouTube
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Anderson (SC) | W 20-3 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Garcia 183 · Rush Nettles 99 · Rec Haughton 87 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Tennessee | L 9-56 132 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Garcia 36 · Rush Davis 113 · Rec Haughton 13 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Mercer | W 20-13 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Garcia 158 · Rush Croasdale 74 · Rec Haughton 103 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | South Carolina State | L 17-20 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Ackerley 164 · Rush Croasdale 24 · Rec Shields 133 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Richmond | L 9-13 | 2-3 | 1-0 | Pass Ackerley 137 · Rush Ackerley 35 · Rec Shields 50 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Wofford | L 25-32 | 2-4 | 1-1 | Pass Ackerley 264 · Rush Croasdale 93 · Rec Harris 81 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Tennessee Tech | L 15-20 | 2-5 | 1-2 | Pass Ackerley 222 · Rush Croasdale 33 · Rec Shields 87 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Samford | L 6-13 | 2-6 | 1-3 | Pass Ackerley 216 · Rush Croasdale 49 · Rec Haughton 92 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Western Carolina | L 26-27 | 2-7 | 1-4 | Pass Smith 120 · Rush Smith 162 · Rec James 47 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @The Citadel | 2 pm ET49% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Chattanooga | 1 pm ET22% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @VMI | 12 pm ET92% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Furman, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Western Carolina | L 26-27 | — | — | — | −0.181 | 34.2% | 1.11 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | Samford | L 6-13 | — | — | — | −0.042 | 35.9% | 1.33 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | @Tennessee Tech | L 15-20 | — | — | — | −0.105 | 32.9% | 1.20 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Wofford | L 25-32 | — | — | — | −0.005 | 40.8% | 1.09 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Richmond | L 9-13 | — | — | — | −0.339 | 34.4% | 0.57 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | South Carolina State | L 17-20 | — | — | — | −0.122 | 32.0% | 1.26 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | @Mercer | W 20-13 | — | — | — | −0.029 | 27.3% | 1.38 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | @Tennessee | L 9-56 | 221 | 0 | 27:51 | −0.126 | 25.0% | 1.17 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 27 | Anderson (SC) | W 20-3 | — | — | — | +0.187 | 41.7% | 1.16 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 221 | 0.0 | −0.085 | 33.8% | 1.14 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
2-8 over the last 10, and lost the last six.
Range of outcomes · Furman · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 3%; 3 wins 40%; 4 wins 46%; 5 wins 10%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Southern teams the same season
Furman is 2-7 and plays at The Citadel next.
Furman is 2-7 and plays at The Citadel next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Furman · 2026