Furman upsets Mercer 20-13

Team pages: Furman · Mercer

Furman2-120
Mercer2-113Final
Sat, Sep 12 · Five Star Stadium at the Moye Complex, Macon, Ga. · Crowd 5,079ESPN+

Furman beat Mercer 20-13 as a 15.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 8%.

Winners have been down to 8% or less in about 1 of every 14 games since 2018.

We had Mercer favored. Furman won.

Next: Furman lost to South Carolina State 20-17, Sat Sep 19

Next: Mercer lost to Georgia Tech 44-11, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Croasdale 47-yd TD run, Furman goes ahead 20-13 (Q4, 0:47). Furman went from 43% to 80% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Furman a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (Furman was a 15.5-point underdog) put it at 11%.

FinalFurman 20-13 MercerFurman wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfFurmanMercerLowest 8%Won20-131+23Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q418% at halfFurmanMercerLowest 8%Won20-131Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfMercerFurmanHigh 92%Lost13-201−23Scores
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q482% at halfMercerFurmanHigh 92%Lost13-201Scores

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 1:09Garcia 46-yd TD pass to Haughton, Furman goes ahead 10-6Furman 13% → 36% (+23)
  2. 2Q4 0:47Croasdale 47-yd TD run, Furman goes ahead 20-13Furman 43% → 80% (+37)
  3. 3Q4 0:104th and 1Caldwell 4-yd runFurman 96% → 75% (−21)
  4. 4Q4 0:07InterceptionKing intercepted by Tarver at the Furman 6, returned 34 yardsFurman 75% → 100% (+25)

The four plays that swung it

  1. 1Q3 1:09Garcia 46-yd TD pass to Haughton, Furman goes ahead 10-6Mercer 87% → 64% (−23)
  2. 2Q4 0:47Croasdale 47-yd TD run, Furman goes ahead 20-13Mercer 57% → 20% (−37)
  3. 3Q4 0:104th and 1Caldwell 4-yd runMercer 4% → 25% (+21)
  4. 4Q4 0:07InterceptionKing intercepted by Tarver at the Furman 6, returned 34 yardsMercer 26% → 0% (−26)
Furman’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Mercer -15.5), at 12% for Furman (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Furman scored on 4 of its 16 drives; Mercer on 4 of its 16.

Furman’s drives are teal, Mercer’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Furman: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 47FumbleMercer: Turned over on downs, from 53 yards out to 23DownsFurman: Field goal, from 77 yards out to 27Field goalMercer: Field goal, from 69 yards out to 36Field goalFurman: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntQ2Mercer: Punt, from 90 yards out to 85PuntFurman: Punt, from 71 yards out to 55PuntMercer: Punt, from 92 yards out to 90PuntFurman: Punt, from 40 yards out to 37PuntMercer: Interception, from 84 yards out to 78InterceptionFurman: Missed field goal, from 30 yards out to 29Missed FGMercer: Fumble, from 71 yards out to 38FumbleFurman: Punt, from 62 yards out to 44PuntMercer: Interception, from 0 yards out to 0InterceptionFurman: End of half, from 75 yards out to 76End of halfQ3Mercer: Punt, from 84 yards out to 75PuntFurman: Interception, from 70 yards out to 67InterceptionMercer: Punt, from 46 yards out to 44PuntFurman: Interception, from 92 yards out to 87InterceptionMercer: Field goal, from 22 yards out to 30Field goalFurman: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntMercer: Field goal, from 73 yards out to 26Field goalFurman: Punt, from 74 yards out to 71PuntMercer: Interception, from 65 yards out to 59InterceptionFurman: Touchdown, from 46 yards out to 0TouchdownMercer: Touchdown, from 74 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Furman: Punt, from 75 yards out to 64PuntMercer: Punt, from 70 yards out to 67PuntFurman: Field goal, from 34 yards out to 26Field goalMercer: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntFurman: Touchdown, from 85 yards out to 0TouchdownMercer: Uncategorized, from 60 yards out to 72Uncategorized

From Mercer’s side

Mercer’s best moment: Caldwell 4-yd run (Q4 0:10). It lifted Mercer’s win chance by 21 points.

The winner fell to 8%.

Box score

Furman 20, Mercer 13

Furman covered +15.5 by 22.5. The total, 33, stayed under 54.5.

Furman leaders

  • Passing Jake Garcia 18 of 28, 158 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Ben Croasdale 6 for 74 yds, 1 TD; C.J. Stokes 9 for 27 yds
  • Receiving Daniel Haughton 8 for 103 yds, 1 TD; Luke Shields 6 for 34 yds

Mercer leaders

  • Passing Jaylen King 18 of 35, 196 yds, 4 INT
  • Rushing Zahmari Palode-Gary 13 for 87 yds; Jaylen King 15 for 31 yds
  • Receiving Travion Solomon 6 for 120 yds; Eric Rasheed 6 for 40 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Furman · 1-1

Rated 202nd in our preseason ratings, 166th now, up 36 spots.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 9-56 @ TennesseeTop 25 #32 of 668

lost by 47 as a 49.5-point underdog

Furman lost 9-56 at Tennessee. Never had a real chance.

W 20-3 vs Anderson (SC) #372 of 668

Furman won 20-3 vs Anderson (SC). Chance to win started at 67%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

Last two games

Mercer · 2-0

Rated 169th in our preseason ratings, 165th now.

Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 62-3 vs Presbyterian #176 of 668

won by 59 as a 22.5-point favorite

Mercer won 62-3 vs Presbyterian. Chance to win started at 95%, low 95%, high better than 99%.

W 23-15 vs East Texas A&M #240 of 668

won by 8 as a 22.5-point favorite

Week by week

Mercer

Wk 1: W 23-15 vs East Texas A&M▲8East Texas A&MWk 1: W 62-3 vs Presbyterian▲59Presbyterian
  • Wk 1Wvs East Texas A&M23-15
  • Wk 1Wvs Presbyterian62-3

Furman

Wk 1: W 20-3 vs Anderson (SC)▲17Anderson (SC)Wk 1: L 9-56 at Tennessee▼47Tennessee
  • Wk 1Wvs Anderson (SC)20-3
  • Wk 1Lat Tennessee9-56

The series

Furman leads the series 12-7-2

21 meetings since 1921 · Mercer has won the last 2

Mercer wonFurman won1921: Furman by 371923: Furman by 71924: Mercer by 231925: Mercer by 171926: tie1927: Furman by 131933: tie1934: Furman by 61935: Furman by 321936: Furman by 112014: Furman by 52015: Mercer by 72016: Mercer by 32017: Furman by 72018: Furman by 52019: Furman by 352021: Mercer by 212022: Furman by 102023: Furman by 242024: Mercer by 262025: Mercer by 2419212025
  • 2025Mercer 52-28
  • 2024Mercer 49-23
  • 2023Furman 38-14
  • 2022Furman 23-13
  • 2021Mercer 24-3

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Mercer’s chances here.

50-50Model · 72%Line · 89%FurmanMercer

Mercer favored by 15.5 · Total 54.5

How games like this usually go

Mercer by 15.5, on the usual path until 8:30 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-11 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.3 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±8.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 161 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.