South Carolina State beats Furman 20-17

Team pages: South Carolina State · Furman

South Carolina State4-020
Furman2-217Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Paladin Stadium, Greenville, S.C. · Crowd 9,217ESPN+

South Carolina State beat Furman 20-17.

We had South Carolina State favored. It won.

Next: South Carolina State beat Bethune-Cookman 31-21, Sat Sep 26

Next: Furman lost to Richmond 13-9, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: 42-yd punt (Q1, 2:29). South Carolina State went from 81% to 63% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave South Carolina State a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (South Carolina State was a 4.5-point favorite) put it at 64%.

Favored the whole way: South Carolina State never fell below 60%.

Furman never had better than a 39% chance.

FinalSouth Carolina State 20-17 FurmanSouth Carolina State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfSouth Carolina StateHigh 97%Won20-171−18Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q493% at halfSouth Carolina StateHigh 97%Won20-171Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfSouth Carolina StateLowest 3%Lost17-201+18Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q47% at halfSouth Carolina StateLowest 3%Lost17-201Scores

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:2942-yd puntSouth Carolina State 81% → 63% (−18)

The play that swung it

  1. 1Q1 2:2942-yd puntFurman 19% → 37% (+18)
South Carolina State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (South Carolina State -4.5), at 68% for South Carolina State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

South Carolina State scored on 4 of its 15 drives; Furman on 4 of its 14.

South Carolina State’s drives are teal, Furman’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1South Carolina State: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownFurman: Punt, from 65 yards out to 50PuntSouth Carolina State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownFurman: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntSouth Carolina State: Punt, from 93 yards out to 90PuntFurman: Field goal, from 52 yards out to 9Field goalQ2South Carolina State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 51PuntFurman: Punt, from 92 yards out to 86PuntSouth Carolina State: Field goal, from 58 yards out to 24Field goalFurman: Punt, from 75 yards out to 75PuntSouth Carolina State: Punt, from 40 yards out to 45PuntFurman: Turned over on downs, from 80 yards out to 19DownsSouth Carolina State: End of half, from 81 yards out to 82End of halfQ3Furman: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntSouth Carolina State: Punt, from 70 yards out to 56PuntFurman: Field goal, from 80 yards out to 32Field goalSouth Carolina State: Interception, from 87 yards out to 62InterceptionFurman: Punt, from 55 yards out to 47PuntSouth Carolina State: Punt, from 85 yards out to 84PuntFurman: Fumble, from 61 yards out to 60FumbleSouth Carolina State: Turned over on downs, from 40 yards out to 35DownsFurman: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 26Field goalQ4South Carolina State: Punt, from 75 yards out to 55PuntFurman: Turned over on downs, from 62 yards out to 45DownsSouth Carolina State: Field goal, from 55 yards out to 10Field goalFurman: Touchdown, from 67 yards out to 0TouchdownSouth Carolina State: Punt, from 82 yards out to 82PuntFurman: Turned over on downs, from 72 yards out to 72DownsSouth Carolina State: End of game, from 36 yards out to 39End of game

From Furman’s side

Furman’s best moment: 42-yd punt (Q1 2:29). It lifted Furman’s win chance by 18 points.

Box score

South Carolina State 20, Furman 17

Furman covered +4.5 by 1.5. The total, 37, stayed under 46.5.

South Carolina State leaders

  • Passing Keely Watson 12 of 25, 186 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Josh Shaw 9 for 55 yds, 1 TD; Mason Pickett-Hicks 15 for 52 yds
  • Receiving DJ Maultsby 4 for 118 yds, 1 TD; Jahzae Kimbrough 2 for 17 yds

Furman leaders

  • Passing Connor Ackerley 10 of 18, 164 yds, 1 TD
  • Rushing Ben Croasdale 8 for 24 yds; Connor Ackerley 8 for 17 yds
  • Receiving Luke Shields 7 for 133 yds, 1 TD; Ethan Harris 5 for 47 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

South Carolina State · 3-0

Rated 129th in our preseason ratings, 123rd now.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 66-0 vs Virginia State #275 of 668

South Carolina State won 66-0 vs Virginia State. Chance to win started at 60%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

W 31-13 @ Florida A&M #211 of 668

won by 18 as a 19.5-point favorite

South Carolina State won 31-13 vs Florida A&M. Chance to win started at 86%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

W 87-0 vs Savannah State #296 of 668

South Carolina State won 87-0 vs Savannah State. Chance to win started at 57%, low 57%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Furman · 2-1

Rated 202nd in our preseason ratings, 201st now.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 7-point win over Mercer as a 15.5-point underdog.

W 20-13 @ Mercer #163 of 668

won by 7 as a 15.5-point underdog

Furman won 20-13 at Mercer. Chance to win started at 12%, low 8%, high better than 99%.

L 9-56 @ TennesseeTop 25 #32 of 668

lost by 47 as a 49.5-point underdog

Furman lost 9-56 at Tennessee. Never had a real chance.

W 20-3 vs Anderson (SC) #372 of 668

Furman won 20-3 vs Anderson (SC). Chance to win started at 67%, low 42%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

Furman

Wk 1: W 20-3 vs Anderson (SC)▲17Anderson (SC)Wk 1: L 9-56 at Tennessee▼47TennesseeWk 2: W 20-13 at Mercer▲7Mercer
  • Wk 1Wvs Anderson (SC)20-3
  • Wk 1Lat Tennessee9-56
  • Wk 2Wat Mercer20-13

South Carolina State

Wk 1: W 87-0 vs Savannah State▲87Savannah StateWk 1: W 31-13 at Florida A&M▲18Florida A&MWk 2: W 66-0 vs Virginia State▲66Virginia State
  • Wk 1Wvs Savannah State87-0
  • Wk 1Wat Florida A&M31-13
  • Wk 2Wvs Virginia State66-0

Power rating by week

South Carolina State is rated 4.2 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-7-10Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2FurmanSouth Carolina State

The series

Furman leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 2013 · Furman won the last meeting

  • 2015Furman 17-3
  • 2014South Carolina State 17-7
  • 2013Furman 30-20

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on Furman’s chances here.

50-50Model 35% · Line 36%South Carolina StateFurman

South Carolina State favored by 4.5 · Total 46.5

How games like this usually go

South Carolina State by 4.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 5.5 points toward Furman.

opened +10now +4.5

The total fell 2 points.

opened 48.5now 46.5

Spread: +10 → +4.5 · Total: 48.5 → 46.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.

0% at home, 10% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 1-9 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -2.4 at home vs. away over 57 games — inside the ±7.7 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 134 miles to get here.

Where next