SEC Tennessee

Head coach Josh Heupel · 6th season · 51-22 at Tennessee

Record6-23-2 SEC · T-5th
CFPNo. 13week 10 poll
Playoff23%to make the field
Nextvs KentuckySat Nov 7 · 6:15 pm ET · ESPN

The rest of the season

Three real tests left: No. 15 LSU 33%, Texas A&M 54%, No. 8 Kentucky 69%

Win out 11% · expect 2.4 of 4 more wins

Tennessee's chance to win each game left, from our model: Kentucky 69%, Texas A&M 54%, LSU 33%, Vanderbilt 85%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Playoff chance went from 23% to 23%, peaking at 45% before a game

23%27%W45%W41%W22%L20%W22%W36%W23%L

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

StandingTied for 5th in the SEC · 3-2 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing George MacIntyre 728 · Rushing DeSean Bishop 957 · Receiving Mike Matthews 528 All player stats

The nationAP #16 · Coaches #16 · CFP #13no change · week 10 poll
The model#22 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #11 (+17.9) · FPI #14
The marketTennessee by 6.5Betting line vs Kentucky · our model 69% Tennessee

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8

Follow Tennessee:athletics siteSECYouTube

Schedule and results

Tennessee · 2026 schedule and results6-2Brutal slateAverage opponent win rate 46% · 3 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now. 1 win over a team ranked at kickoff.Our rank entering each game: #30 to #18
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 5#30#202−49.5✗ −2.5FurmanW 56-9 132Tennessee won 56-9 vs Furman. Never in doubt.1-00-0Pass Brandon 226 · Rush Bishop 97 · Rec Matthews 132
2Sep 12#32#78−12.5✓ +8.5@Georgia TechW 45-24 137Tennessee won 45-24 at Georgia Tech. Chance to win started at 77%, low 62%, high better than 99%.2-00-0Pass Brandon 148 · Rush Bishop 147 · Rec Jackson 64
3Sep 19#30#149−35.5✗ −2.5Kennesaw StateW 42-9 131Tennessee won 42-9 vs Kennesaw State. Chance to win started at 99%, low 99%, high better than 99%. Roaring3-00-0Pass Brandon 178 · Rush Morris 116 · Rec Staley 59
4Sep 26#24#4+5.5✓ +2.5TexasL 17-20 131Tennessee lost 17-20 vs Texas. Chance to win started at 41%, low under 1%, high 44%. Roaring3-10-1Pass Brandon 145 · Rush Bishop 34 · Rec Matthews 72
5Oct 3#24#56−6✓ +4AuburnW 24-14 132Tennessee won 24-14 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 75%, low 44%, high better than 99%.4-11-1Pass MacIntyre 86 · Rush Bishop 220 · Rec Matthews 57
6Oct 10#26#120−13.5✗ −6.5@ArkansasW 24-17 125Tennessee won 24-17 at Arkansas. Chance to win started at 73%, low 42%, high better than 99%.5-12-1Pass MacIntyre 247 · Rush Bishop 138 · Rec Brame 87
7Oct 17#30#6+7.5✓ +23.5AlabamaTop 10 winW 26-10 127Tennessee won 26-10 vs Alabama. Chance to win started at 41%, low 39%, high better than 99%.6-13-1Pass MacIntyre 197 · Rush Bishop 159 · Rec Matthews 85
8Oct 24#18#32+2.5✗ −0.5@South CarolinaL 24-27 136Tennessee lost 24-27 at South Carolina. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 91%.6-23-2Pass MacIntyre 136 · Rush Bishop 120 · Rec Staley 56
9Bye week
10Nov 7#21#37−6.5Kentucky6:15 pm ET · ESPN69% to win
11Nov 14#22#26+8.5@Texas A&Mtime TBA54% to win
12Nov 21+1.5LSUtime TBA33% to win
13Nov 28−3@Vanderbilttime TBA
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Tennessee, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Tennessee: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 24@South CarolinaL 24-27320134:12+0.03745.9%0.85Defense's roughest night
Oct 17AlabamaW 26-10347235:44+0.07744.6%0.95Best defensive stand
Oct 10@ArkansasW 24-17414327:56+0.18044.4%1.41Most explosive
Oct 3AuburnW 24-14323231:37+0.08842.6%1.02
Sep 26TexasL 17-20221031:23-0.17529.9%1.09Season-low EPA/play
Sep 19Kennesaw StateW 42-9446129:03+0.37752.2%1.06Blowout win
Sep 12@Georgia TechW 45-24447028:48+0.23943.5%1.37
Sep 5FurmanW 56-9638232:02+0.56958.1%1.28Season-high EPA/play
Season average (8 games)3941.4+0.17445.2%1.13

Tennessee's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Offense strongRun-heavy, ground-controlMethodical, ball-control

Season expectations

CFP championship#16 in field+6,000
SEC title#8 in market+2,000

Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

L 24-27 at South Carolina

Tennessee fans
r/CFB
“Aww I hate that. That’s amazing the lengths yall went to help him, I’m sure he knew how much he was loved”
1w ago
r/CFB
“Please don’t let this be like the last time we visited Williams-Brice”
1w ago
South Carolina fans on Tennessee
r/CFB
“No hate for Tennessee this week. Our family’s retired racing greyhound got really sick last month and eventually ended up at UT’s vet hospital after three…”
1w ago

W 26-10 vs Alabama

Tennessee fans
r/CFB
“On one hand, yes you have a point.”
2w ago
r/CFB
“I give more damns about this fine than I do the whole state of Alabama”
2w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Tennessee-Kentuckyvs AP #8 Kentucky · at home
Sat Nov 21AP #15 LSUvs LSU · at home
Sat Nov 28Tennessee-Vanderbiltat Vanderbilt · on the road

Tennessee is 6-2 with 5 stories along the way.

  1. W
  2. W
  3. W
  4. L
  5. W
  6. W
  7. W
  8. L

Each gold dot is a story from that week. Tap one to read it.

All 5 Tennessee stories

Playoff chance, day by day

23% now

050%23%High 43%, Sep 18Aug 31Nov 4

Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.

1 storyline developing

What Tennessee’s program standing is really about

The open questionis this a real, durable shift in the program's tier?

Dynastythis cyclenew

Heupel’s fifth class arrives at an 8-5 roster with 26 wins in four years — consistent recruiting masking the churn from a program writing its sequel.

What happenedTennessee has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 16% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 13%.
The contexta 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons

Statusdeveloping

How past storylines here turned out

AnsweredTennessee climbed back into dynasty-caliber territory the following season.
AnsweredTennessee's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · Tennessee · 2026

Tennessee’s most likely regular season is 8-4. 99% of outcomes land from 7-5 to 10-2.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

6 wins 1%; 7 wins 14%; 8 wins 38%; 9 wins 37%; 10 wins 11%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-5A bowl game, 2 fewer wins.
Base10-3A bowl game.
Ceiling11-2A bowl game, 1 more win.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Following now · Tennessee · Program power

Tennessee is slipping in the power ratings.

Tennessee has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 16% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 13%. It is a 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons. The model registered a structural decline before the coverage did, and the coverage is still light.

upbeat so far, only a few posts doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Believers6 upbeat posts
Drama: simmering
Developing2 new this week
5 days agoNapier fired as Florida coach
6 days ago2027 CB Preston Glasco commits to Tennessee
last weekTennessee fires head coach
last weekSEC title odds: +900 to +1800 (the market’s chance is down 4.7 points)
last weekTennessee AD criticizes officiating
Our read
Heupel’s fifth class arrives at an 8-5 roster with 26 wins in four years — consistent recruiting masking the churn from a program writing its sequel.
Source of record: Tennessee has slipped from dynasty-caliber territory — down to the top 16% of FBS by three-year power rating, from the top 13% — a 26-10 record over the last three regular seasons.
How fans are reacting · tap to expand
The Circus dramaBelievers bullishSkeptics no dissent
🎪The circusTop off-field item: “The College Football Playoff selection committee just sent a…”.›

The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.

“The College Football Playoff selection committee just sent a loud message to Tennessee and it's what Vols fans have known for a long time”
A to Z Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
📣Believers6 bullish/momentum items making the case that it's working.›

The 'resurgence is real' read: the numbers are starting to back the hype.

“CFP committee chair explains ignoring head-to-head win to rank Tennessee eight spots lower than Alabama”
247Sports · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Twin brothers to compete for opposing teams in Tennessee-Kentucky game”
Vols Wire · Nov 4 · read ↗
“Everything Rick Barnes said after Tennessee's win over Wofford”
Sports Illustrated · Nov 4 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent; the coverage runs one way.›

The 'wait and see' counter: power shifts often get overread before the season proves them.

Nothing in our corpus yet.

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 48 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2

Game feel48even gamescombined pts / game12th highest-scoring of 16 in the SEC
Heart rate1-2some dramain one-score games (3 of 8)7th most one-score games of 16 in the SEC
Margin+16.0comfortableavg scoring margin4th best margin of 16 in the SEC
Tempo70average paceoffensive plays / game5th fastest of 16 in the SEC
Big plays1.13some popexplosiveness (IsoPPP)12th most explosive of 16 in the SEC
Home crowd101,915avg attendance4th biggest crowds of 16 in the SEC

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Tennessee remembers exactly what it was — a national champion, the SEC's loudest fall Saturday, Peyton in the huddle — and after a decade in the wilderness it's writing the sequel, even after the quarterback meant to headline it walked out over money.

AP Top 25#16 AP

Fans spent a decade hearing the program eulogized — that the giant was done, that the wilderness was the new normal, that the fight song was the only thing left worth showing on TV. They never…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Tennessee · Game-day weather

Typical at Neyland Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 93, 3:30 pm Saturdays 88

  • noon: 90, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 93, Comfortable

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Tennessee is a program that remembers what it was and is writing the sequel.

Offense: StrongRun/Pass: Run-heavy, ground-controlStyle: Methodical, ball-control
Open questionsOpen: How will David Gabriel-Georges impact Tennessee's future?

Active arcs

Cooling
Tennessee lands David Gabriel-Georges, believed to be first $2M-a-year RB…
How will David Gabriel-Georges impact Tennessee's future?
Cooling
Tennessee lands four-star offensive tackle Q’Mari Hudson
How will Hudson's commitment impact Tennessee's offensive line in the future?
Read the Tennessee story →
Program ledgerLatest: Fell to No. 16 in the AP Top 25 (2026, week 9)

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026 · Wk 9Fell to No. 16 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Lost 24-27 at South Carolina↓5 · from No. 11
  • 2025 · Wk 15Fell out of the AP Top 25The committee dropped them out too, from No. 19.Week 14 · Lost 24-45 at home to Vanderbiltwas No. 18
  • 2025 · Wk 11Fell to No. 23 in the AP Top 25Week 10 · Lost 27-33 at home to Oklahoma↓9 · from No. 14
  • 2025 · Wk 9Fell to No. 17 in the AP Top 25Week 8 · Lost 20-37 at Alabama↓6 · from No. 11
  • 2025 · Wk 3Climbed to No. 15 in the AP Top 25Week 2 · Won 72-17 at home over East Tennessee State↑7 · from No. 22

Roster and recruiting

Roster35% of production back, talent #13

Roster reload: Tennessee

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production35%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#13 nationally247 composite 885.9
Portal Additions21Primary repair: S
Portal Losses29Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss5NFL Draft departures (5)
Recruiting Reload#8Top-10 recruiting class
EDGEin 2 - Chaz Coleman5.00out 5 - Jordan Ross4.38Starter Risk
CBin 4 - Kayin Lee3.80out 3 - Rickey Gibson III4.38Upgrade
current room: 193 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Hybrid Nickelmoves between deep coverage and the slot
Former four-star
Sin 4 - Dejuan Lane3.70out 2 - Boo Carter4.38Need Filled
Hybrid NickelTakeaway threatmoves between deep coverage and the slot the kind of DB who takes it back the other way
Transferred in
OTin 1 - Ory Williams3.60out 4 - Lance Heard4.50Starter Risk
WRin 1 - Ian Duarte3.50out 4 - Amari Jefferson4.28Starter Risk
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
DLin 1 - Xavier Gilliam4.50out 3 - Jamal Wallace3.60Starter Risk
current room: 272 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Two-Gap Basewins the gap play after play
Transferred in
Full roster (114 players)
DBDJ Burks, Dejuan Lane, Dylan Lewis, Edrees Farooq, Isaiah Hardge, Ja'Dais Richard, Jackson Mathews, Jamyan Theodore, Javonte Smith, Joel Wyatt, Jowell Combay, KJ McClain, Kayin Lee, Sidney Walton, Steele Katina, TJ Metcalf, Tevis Metcalf, Timothy Merritt, Tre Poteat, Ty Redmond, Zay Anderson
DLBreeze Carter, CJ Edwards, Carson Gentle, Carter Gooden, Charles House III, Christian Gass, Daevin Hobbs, Darryl Rivers, Dereon Albert, Ethan Utley, Hezekiah Harris, Isaiah Campbell, Isaiah Inge, JJ Finch, Jordan Norman, Kedric Golston II, Mariyon Dye, Mike Bethea II, Nathan Robinson, Nuk Simmons, Tyree Weathersby, Xavier Gilliam, Zach Groves
LBAmare Campbell, Arion Carter, Brayden Rouse, Edwin Spillman, Grier Short, Jadon Perlotte, Jaedon Harmon, Jeremiah Telander, Jordan Burns, Ryan Scott, TJ White
LSBennett Brady, Blake Howard
OLAntoni Ogumoro, Charlie Powell III, David Sanders Jr., Donovan Haslam, Ed Baker, Gabriel Osenda, Gage Ginther, Jeremias Heard, Jeremy George-El, Jesse Perry, Kamari Blair, Michael Kostantonov, Nic Moore, Sam Pendleton, Shamurad Umarov, Thomas Storm, Wendell Moe Jr.
OTOry Williams
PJackson Ross, Logan Foley
PKCooper Ranvier, Grady Dangerfield, Josh Turbyville
QBFaizon Brandon, George MacIntyre, Mason Phillips, Ryan Staub
RBDaune Morris, DeSean Bishop, Hunter Barnes, Javin Gordon, Justin Baker, Will Rajecki
SMar'Quavious Moss
TECole Harrison, Dasaahn Brame, Drake Martinez, Ethan Davis, Luca Wolf, Trent Thomas
WRBen Petermann, Brayden Carroll, Braylon Staley, Deon Hardin, Doren Sacha, Ian Duarte, Jack-Henry Jakobik, Jacolby Cooper, Joakim Dodson, Lane Cope, Luke Thompson, Mike Matthews, Nathan Roberts, Radarious Jackson, TK Keys, Travis Smith Jr., Tyreek King
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
Derrick Baker
QB · Alpharetta, GA
#805 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

r/cfb this year

Tennessee OT David Sanders Jr. donates $20,000, football equipment to alma mater
80 upvotes · Jul 2026

Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb

Fans and ratings

Fans vs. the lineThe betting market is a bit more optimistic than fans
Fan vs. market↓
64th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
8.5
Sportsbook win total
(79th among FBS)
Market 15pp more optimistic than fan mood
Win total consensus · 1 book
Where voters differAP voters range from #9 to #23 (week 9)
Voter spread

70 of 70 AP voters have them ranked, AP ballot, week 9 (2026): from #9, Chris Carter (Pittsburgh Post-Gazette), to #23, Stephen Means (Cleveland.com).

Individual AP Top 25 ballots, AP ballot, week 9, 2026, 70 voters tracked.

RivalsRival pulse: Kentucky hopeful

Rival pulse

Alabama
Mixed
+4
Third Saturday in October
Face-off →
Kentucky
Hopeful
+8
Tennessee-Kentucky

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Tennessee

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

Who covers this team
KNKnoxville News Sentinel

Mike Wilson

Tennessee football reporter

knoxnews.com →@ByMikeWilson
KNKnoxville News Sentinel

John Adams

Tennessee sports columnist

knoxnews.com →
UTUSA Today Network / Knox News

Blake Toppmeyer

SEC college football writer

knoxnews.com →@btoppmeyer

No financial relationship with any outlet listed. If we have a reporter wrong or missing, please let us know.

From the booth

A recent episode that covers this team
This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site