Tennessee

2-0AP #15
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Tennessee lands first $2 million running back David Gabriel-Georges over Ohio Stateour readJosh Heupel’s Tennessee team focuses on young players ahead of season openerour readThe Alabama rivalry

SEC · Josh Heupel, year 6 (47-20) · Neyland Stadium · 102,455 · 101,915 avg in 2026

The nationAP #15 · Coaches #14up 3 from last week
The model#28 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #12 (+19.9) · FPI #11
The marketTennessee by 35.5vs Kennesaw State · our model 93% Tennessee · a number, not a pick

LastW 45–24 at Georgia Tech · Sat Sep 12 · DeSean Bishop 147 rush yds, 2 TD, 15 rec yds

Nextvs Kennesaw State · Sat Sep 19 · 7:45 pm ET · Neyland Stadium · Tennessee by 35.5 · Game preview

Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2

Key stats — 2026 — FBS rank
Points/game
50.5
Pts allowed/game
16.5
Total yards/gm#18 / 138 · 87th pct
542.5
Rush yards/gm#7 / 138 · 95th pct
314.0
Pass yards/gm#72 / 138 · 48th pct
228.5
Yards allowed/gm#47 / 138 · 66th pct
288.5
Rush yds allowed/gm#101 / 138 · 27th pct
156.5
SacksT-#4 / 138 · 97th pct
10
InterceptionsT-#29 / 115 · 61st pct
2
3rd-down convT-#26 / 138 · 81st pct
52.0%
All 85 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
1085542.5/gm7.75/play#18 / 138 · 87th pct#12 / 69 · 83rd pct#6 / 16 · 66th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
577288.5/gm4.47/play#47 / 138 · 66th pct#39 / 69 · 44th pct#10 / 16 · 41st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush yards
Team
628314.0/gm4.49/play#7 / 138 · 95th pct#3 / 69 · 96th pct#2 / 16 · 91st pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
313156.5/gm2.43/play#101 / 138 · 27th pct#62 / 69 · 11th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush carries
Team
9246.0/gmT-#20 / 138 · 85th pctT-#7 / 69 · 90th pctT-#2 / 16 · 88th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6733.5/gmT-#60 / 138 · 55th pct#41 / 69 · 41st pct#10 / 16 · 41st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Rush TDs
Team
73.5/gmT-#17 / 138 · 85th pctT-#12 / 69 · 79th pctT-#5 / 16 · 69th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#53 / 138 · 50th pctT-#34 / 69 · 36th pctT-#9 / 16 · 31st pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Net pass yards
Team
457228.5/gm3.26/play#72 / 138 · 48th pct#46 / 69 · 34th pct#11 / 16 · 34th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
264132.0/gm2.05/play#17 / 138 · 88th pct#14 / 69 · 80th pct#5 / 16 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass attempts
Team
4824.0/gmT-#105 / 138 · 23rd pctT-#60 / 69 · 13th pct#16 / 16 · 3rd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
6231.0/gmT-#79 / 138 · 41st pctT-#42 / 69 · 38th pct#12 / 16 · 28th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Completions
Team
3115.5/gmT-#102 / 138 · 25th pctT-#58 / 69 · 16th pct#15 / 16 · 9th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3718.5/gmT-#70 / 138 · 49th pctT-#41 / 69 · 40th pctT-#10 / 16 · 38th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Pass TDs
Team
63.0/gmT-#17 / 138 · 83rd pctT-#14 / 69 · 74th pctT-#4 / 16 · 72nd pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
10.5/gmT-#13 / 138 · 80th pctT-#11 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#2 / 16 · 72nd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Passer rating#20 / 115 · 83rd pct#17 / 59 · 72nd pct#4 / 14 · 75th pct#2 / 13 · 92nd pct
177.5177.5
Interceptions thrown
Team
00.0/gmT-#92 / 138 · 17th pctT-#42 / 69 · 20th pctT-#12 / 16 · 16th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#77 / 138 · 33rd pctT-#40 / 69 · 29th pctT-#6 / 16 · 38th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Sacks (def)
Team
105.0/gmT-#4 / 138 · 97th pctT-#4 / 69 · 94th pct#3 / 16 · 84th pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
21.0/gmT-#33 / 138 · 67th pctT-#20 / 69 · 62nd pctT-#6 / 16 · 62nd pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
Tackles for loss
Team
199.5/gmT-#7 / 138 · 95th pctT-#3 / 69 · 96th pct#2 / 16 · 91st pct#11 / 11 · 9th pct
Opp
94.5/gmT-#55 / 138 · 57th pctT-#36 / 69 · 45th pctT-#8 / 16 · 50th pct#1 / 11 · 100th pct
First downs
Team
5326.5/gm#27 / 138 · 81st pct#18 / 69 · 75th pct#7 / 16 · 59th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
3517.5/gmT-#61 / 138 · 54th pctT-#43 / 69 · 37th pct#11 / 16 · 34th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down conv
Team
136.5/gmT-#37 / 138 · 68th pctT-#19 / 69 · 67th pctT-#6 / 16 · 59th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
115.5/gmT-#80 / 138 · 39th pctT-#50 / 69 · 28th pct#11 / 16 · 34th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
3rd-down att
Team
2512.5/gmT-#72 / 138 · 45th pctT-#34 / 69 · 49th pct#9 / 16 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
2814.0/gmT-#62 / 138 · 50th pctT-#32 / 69 · 49th pctT-#8 / 16 · 47th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down conv
Team
31.5/gmT-#23 / 138 · 74th pctT-#12 / 69 · 72nd pctT-#4 / 16 · 62nd pct#10 / 13 · 31st pct
Opp
00.0/gmT-#1 / 138 · 91st pctT-#1 / 69 · 90th pctT-#1 / 16 · 94th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
4th-down att
Team
42.0/gmT-#47 / 138 · 60th pctT-#24 / 69 · 59th pctT-#6 / 16 · 59th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
42.0/gmT-#80 / 138 · 36th pctT-#42 / 69 · 32nd pctT-#8 / 16 · 47th pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct
Time of possession
Team
60:5030:25/gm#76 / 138 · 45th pct#37 / 69 · 47th pct#9 / 16 · 47th pct#13 / 13 · 8th pct
Opp
59:0329:32/gm#64 / 138 · 54th pct#36 / 69 · 49th pct#8 / 16 · 53rd pct#1 / 13 · 100th pct

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats — 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
+0.52 EPA/play11223 / 3860.53749.85
#22 FBS		0186.6—88.7——
Running Backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
+0.38 EPA/play18234244
#8 FBS		7.23
#11 FBS		33——
-0.09 EPA/play6220794.0024——
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
-0.05 EPA/play426148
#74 FBS		24.72
#24 FBS		57
+1.38 EPA/play32610217045

2026 stat leaders · Tennessee

through 2 games

DeSean Bishop leads Tennessee with 244 rushing yards through 2 games.

1. DeSean Bishop RB 244 rushing yards
2. Amare Campbell LB 14 tackles
3. Mike Matthews WR 148 receiving yards
4. Faizon Brandon QB 374 passing yards
5. Radarious Jackson WR 102 receiving yards
How They Play · 2025

Tennessee fields an elite offense behind a solid, bend-don't-break defense.

Offense
94th pct EPA/play
Defense
47th pct EPA allowed
Defensive shape
90th pct at limiting explosive plays

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

The Savant Card · Tennessee · 2025

Tennessee reads strongest in success rate (top 3%) and epa / play (top 7%); the crux lives in success rate allowed, where Tennessee sits at the 14th percentile.

offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.32
94th
Success Rate +0.50
97th
Explosive Plays +1.27
56th
Rushing EPA +0.22
88th

defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA Allowed +0.15
47th
Success Rate Allowed +0.45
14th
Explosive Plays Allowed +1.15
90th
Passing EPA Allowed +0.22
57th

hidden math · special situations

Passing EPA +0.43
88th
Rushing EPA Allowed +0.07
56th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 13 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 136 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · Tennessee · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Tennessee is worth +6.6 points more at home than on the road.

Top third of FBS, 88th percentile of 133 programs

65% at home, 47% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (32–17 home, 17–19 away). Interval ±5.0.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge — per-team modelling was tested and did not survive scrutiny (why) — and the books use about 3. Against the closing line, Tennessee has beaten the number by +2.2 more at home than away over 71 games — inside the ±8.3 that many games can resolve. Results here cannot tell the flat number apart from the building, and that is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Neyland Stadium seats 102,455 and has averaged 99% full (101,569, 28 games reported). Visitors cover a median 280 miles to get here since 2018 — 28th-shortest of 135 FBS venues, inside the ordinary range. 12% of the 2026 roster (13 of 107 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 57 home games since 2018.

Home32–17Away17–19Edge+6.6 ±5.0Visitor trip280 mi

More in this tab

Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Tennessee hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

65th percentile success on standard downs, 78th on passing downs — little dropoff between the two — a schedule-independent identity.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantTennesseeWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i18th standard · 41st passingUNLV51st standard · 7th passingStanford76th standard · 15th passingEastern Michigan52nd standard · 10th passingSan José State54th standard · 22nd passingNew Mexico State45th standard · 75th passingSacramento State23rd standard · 14th passingOklahoma State41st standard · 49th passingDuke20th standard · 29th passingFlorida State28th standard · 65th passingRutgers30th standard · 71st passingKansas70th standard · 35th passingBoston College27th standard · 56th passingNorfolk State16th standard · 9th passingLouisville96th standard · 70th passingMissouri36th standard · 85th passingMemphis69th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Southern24th standard · 45th passingOle Miss94th standard · 50th passingJacksonville State65th standard · 82nd passingNorth Dakota State86th standard · 27th passingArizona92nd standard · 86th passingUSC97th standard · 99th passingWake Forest56th standard · 97th passingTCU93rd standard · 8th passingDelaware70th standard · 31st passingUAB65th standard · 81st passingMichigan State62nd standard · 29th passingSouth Florida91st standard · 52nd passingFlorida International46th standard · 43rd passingNavy98th standard · 59th passingWisconsin13th standard · 18th passingOregon State10th standard · 38th passingSyracuse48th standard · 64th passingOhio State90th standard · 40th passingBall State12th standard · 24th passingPittsburgh30th standard · 76th passingColorado35th standard · 77th passingGeorgia Tech58th standard · 44th passingAuburn75th standard · 55th passingBaylor40th standard · 96th passingNorth Texas49th standard · 68th passingApp State44th standard · 90th passingIowa State4th standard · 23rd passingUTSA99th standard · 29th passingArkansas60th standard · 80th passingBoise State58th standard · 46th passingOregon35th standard · 33rd passingTulsa56th standard · 1st passingTulane31st standard · 2nd passingPurdue83rd standard · 88th passingMiddle Tennessee87th standard · 68th passingVanderbilt80th standard · 12th passingSan Diego State4th standard · 40th passingLSU33rd standard · 98th passingClemson1st standard · 19th passingCentral Michigan16th standard · 6th passingTexas Tech88th standard · 48th passingMichigan2nd standard · 62nd passingWestern Michigan39th standard · 20th passingOhio38th standard · 17th passingBuffalo7th standard · 14th passingTexas72nd standard · 94th passingCoastal Carolina61st standard · 52nd passingColorado State82nd standard · 91st passingWyoming65th standard · 36th passingTexas A&M85th standard · 72nd passingLiberty14th standard · 59th passingFlorida Atlantic43rd standard · 87th passingLouisiana19th standard · 92nd passingSouth Alabama50th standard · 73rd passingTroy22nd standard · 59th passingSam Houston78th standard · 61st passingNevada77th standard · 52nd passingWestern Kentucky25th standard · 34th passingWashington State8th standard · 3rd passingWashington81st standard · 4th passingCalifornia9th standard · 25th passingCharlotte73rd standard · 83rd passingTennessee65th standard · 78th passingUtah State4th standard · 93rd passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
App State44th90th
Arizona92nd86th
Arkansas60th80th
Auburn75th55th
Ball State12th24th
Baylor40th96th
Boise State58th46th
Boston College27th56th
Buffalo7th14th
California9th25th
Central Michigan16th6th
Charlotte73rd83rd
Clemson1st19th
Coastal Carolina61st52nd
Colorado35th77th
Colorado State82nd91st
Delaware70th31st
Duke20th29th
Eastern Michigan52nd10th
Florida Atlantic43rd87th
Florida International46th43rd
Florida State28th65th
Georgia Southern24th45th
Georgia Tech58th44th
Hawai'i18th41st
Iowa State4th23rd
Jacksonville State65th82nd
Kansas70th35th
LSU33rd98th
Liberty14th59th
Louisiana19th92nd
Louisville96th70th
Memphis69th65th
Michigan2nd62nd
Michigan State62nd29th
Middle Tennessee87th68th
Missouri36th85th
Navy98th59th
Nevada77th52nd
New Mexico State45th75th
Norfolk State16th9th
North Dakota State86th27th
North Texas49th68th
Ohio38th17th
Ohio State90th40th
Oklahoma State41st49th
Ole Miss94th50th
Oregon35th33rd
Oregon State10th38th
Pittsburgh30th76th
Purdue83rd88th
Rutgers30th71st
Sacramento State23rd14th
Sam Houston78th61st
San Diego State4th40th
San José State54th22nd
South Alabama50th73rd
South Florida91st52nd
Stanford76th15th
Syracuse48th64th
TCU93rd8th
Tennessee65th78th
Texas72nd94th
Texas A&M85th72nd
Texas Tech88th48th
Troy22nd59th
Tulane31st2nd
Tulsa56th1st
UAB65th81st
UNLV51st7th
USC97th99th
UTSA99th29th
Utah State4th93rd
Vanderbilt80th12th
Wake Forest56th97th
Washington81st4th
Washington State8th3rd
Western Kentucky25th34th
Western Michigan39th20th
Wisconsin13th18th
Wyoming65th36th
Tendency driftHow this coordinator's calls have drifted since arriving.

Season by season

How Tennessee’s current staff calls plays, year over year

Offense: Joey Halzle (2023–2026)
1st-down pass rate
2023: 45% → 2026: 29% · 16-pt range · #35 of 184 · more than most
Red-zone pass rate
2023: 40% → 2026: 26% · 14-pt range · #76 of 182 · a typical amount
4th-down go rate
2023: 29% → 2025: 34% · 6-pt range · #160 of 172 · less than most
RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Model Consensus

Where the Models Rank Tennessee

CFB Zeitgeist

#28

+5.8

SP+

#12

+19.9

FPI

#11

+17.9

Elo

#23

1729

The national models put Tennessee between 11th and 23rd nationally — CFB Zeitgeist is more skeptical, at 28th.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Tennessee

Reads like

AuburnSECSame tier of program · Similarly-sized rosters up frontDelawareConference USASame tier of program · Similarly-sized rosters up frontFloridaSECSame tier of program · Similarly-sized rosters up front

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

Historical echoPrograms whose arc bent the same way -- then what happened.

Historical echo

Tennessee’s breakout has happened before — and 2 of the 4 closest programs couldn’t hold it.

Programs whose stature climbed in the same shape. The grey line is their run; the color is what came next for them.

South Florida 2006–2011
held the gain
Minnesota 1959–1964
fell back
Auburn 1956–1961
fell back
Ohio State 1967–1972
kept climbing

An analogy on the shape of a program’s Zeitgeist stature arc — not a prediction. Interim calibration, medium confidence; matched among current FBS programs at a comparable level.

ConditionsThe weather and altitude visitors have to deal with.
Venue texture

68°F average kickoff temp; 6% of games had measurable precipitation; 5 mph average wind.

Based on 86 home games with weather data.

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