The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 9 Alabama 11%, Mississippi State 61%, Arkansas 69%
Win out 5% · expect 2.4 of 4 more wins
Auburn's chance to win each game left, from our model: Arkansas 69%, Mississippi State 61%, Samford 97%, Alabama 11%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 59% to 86%, peaking at 93% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 12th in the SEC · 2-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Byrum Brown 1,557 · Rushing Byrum Brown 485 · Receiving Keshaun Singleton 433 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow Auburn:athletics siteSECX
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #71 | #33 | −6.5✗ −5.5 | Baylor (N) | W 17-16 175 Loud | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 259 · Rush Cobb 53 · Rec Singleton 89 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #70 | #57 | −32.5✓ +2.5 | Southern Miss | W 43-8 142 | 2-0 | 0-0 | Pass Brown 223 · Rush Mabson Ii 108 · Rec Koger 57 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #62 | #21 | +2.5✗ −2.5 | Florida | L 39-44 142 | 2-1 | 0-1 | Pass Brown 271 · Rush Brown 65 · Rec Singleton 99 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #60 | #42 | −10✗ −4 | Vanderbilt | W 21-15 133 | 3-1 | 1-1 | Pass Brown 140 · Rush Cobb 58 · Rec Nimrod 52 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #56 | #24 | +6✗ −4 | @Tennessee | L 14-24 132 | 3-2 | 1-2 | Pass Brown 159 · Rush Brown 107 · Rec Singleton 54 |
| 6 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | #59 | #1 | +19.5✓ +22.5 | @GeorgiaTop 10 win | W 27-24 139 Firestorm | 4-2 | 2-2 | Pass Brown 150 · Rush Brown 115 · Rec Nimrod 60 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #44 | #8 | +7✗ −14 | LSU | L 17-38 145 | 4-3 | 2-3 | Pass Brown 160 · Rush Brown 21 · Rec Singleton 64 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #46 | #10 | +10.5✗ −19.5 | @Ole Miss | L 15-45 154 | 4-4 | 2-4 | Pass Brown 195 · Rush Cobb 35 · Rec Nimrod 62 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #54 | #110 | −10.5 | Arkansas | 12:45 pm ET · SEC Network69% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #54 | #94 | @Mississippi State | time TBA61% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Samford | 3:30 pm ET97% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | +10 | @Alabama | time TBA | |||||
Win chances are our model for Auburn, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Auburn: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Ole Miss | L 15-45 | 312 | 2 | 27:22 | -0.012 | 33.3% | 1.53 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 24 | LSU | L 17-38 | 271 | 0 | 26:19 | +0.208 | 35.8% | 1.63 | Most explosive |
| Oct 17 | @Georgia | W 27-24 | 366 | 0 | 29:33 | +0.208 | 37.3% | 1.30 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Tennessee | L 14-24 | 345 | 3 | 28:23 | -0.119 | 39.4% | 1.21 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Vanderbilt | W 21-15 | 279 | 1 | 22:28 | +0.020 | 34.5% | 1.33 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Florida | L 39-44 | 373 | 1 | 20:44 | +0.167 | 43.3% | 1.46 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | Southern Miss | W 43-8 | 610 | 1 | 32:49 | +0.293 | 51.8% | 1.19 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Baylor | W 17-16 | 389 | 3 | 27:28 | +0.028 | 38.7% | 1.16 | One-score win |
| Season average (8 games) | 368 | 1.4 | +0.099 | 39.3% | 1.35 | ||||
Auburn's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
There’s one guy that turned Bo Nix [from] Auburn, laughable Bo Nix, got drafted 12th overall
<1% now · ▼ 1 point in the last week
Our simulation, 20,000 seasons a night, counted from the first full week of games.
The open questiondo the new coordinators fit the roster?
Hugh Freeze inherits a 5-7 losing record at Auburn, where the SEC West cannot schedule around the program, raising questions about his ability to restore consistency in his third season.
Statusdeveloping
Alex Golesh, in his 1st season at Auburn, inherits a 5-7 losing record and a program the SEC West cannot schedule around, raising questions about his ability to restore stability.
Statusdeveloping
Golesh inherits a 5-7 roster and a 22% production return at Auburn, where the program's third head coach in five years must prove the SEC West's scheduling dilemma isn't a recurring crisis.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Auburn · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 11%; 6 wins 42%; 7 wins 42%; 8 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The off-field storyline drawing the most coverage right now. This section collects the drama around the program, kept apart from the analysis.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
This event was in 1521 of 13708 board posts (11%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (887 posts): 11% positive · 39% neutral · 50% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
This event was in 49 of 13708 board posts (0%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (887 posts): 11% positive · 39% neutral · 50% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SEC teams the same season
Auburn is the program that lives in the same state, recruits the same ground, and refuses the role the rivalry tries to assign it — now on its fourth coach in a decade, betting an offense-minded outsider can finally cash the resources in.
Auburn fans know exactly what the ledger says across the state and refuse to wear the role it implies; the chip is that the same recruiting ground and the same league bid go to two programs, and one…
Auburn · Game-day weather
Typical at Jordan-Hare Stadium: 7:30 pm Saturdays score 96, noon Saturdays 88
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, regular-season Saturdays, 2018 to 2025: 97 at noon, 95 at 3:30 pm, 95 at 7:30 pm. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Auburn is the program the SEC West cannot schedule around.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
5Auburn's 5-7 losing record and SEC West scheduling challenges test Golesh's ability to stabilize a program that hasn't cracked the top 20 in the AP since 2021.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Auburn · 2026