Auburn 17-16 Baylor (Sep 5, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Baylor · Auburn

Aflac Kickoff

Baylor0-116

Auburn1-017Final

Sat, Sep 5 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Ga. (neutral site) · Crowd 55,068

Auburn beat Baylor 17-16.

We had Baylor favored. Auburn won.

Next: Baylor beat Prairie View A&M 44-3, Sat Sep 12

Next: Auburn beat Southern Miss 43-8, Sat Sep 12

Top comment in the game thread

THEY HAD 12 MEN ON THE FIELD WHY CALL A TIMEOUT

Q4 0:13 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 5

How it swung

The turning point: Brown 11-yd TD run, Auburn goes ahead 17-10 (Q4, 3:21). Auburn went from 72% to 90% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Auburn a 31% chance, and the closing betting line (Auburn was a 6.5-point favorite) put it at 70%.

Favored the whole way: Auburn never fell below 64%.

Baylor never had better than a 35% chance.

FinalAuburn 17-16 BaylorAuburn wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 3:21Brown 11-yd TD run, Auburn goes ahead 17-10Auburn 72% → 90% (+18)
2Q4 0:094th and 5Lagway 5-yd TD pass to Freeman, cuts it to 17-16Auburn 82% → 100% (+18)

The two plays that swung it

1Q4 3:21Brown 11-yd TD run, Auburn goes ahead 17-10Baylor 28% → 10% (−18)
2Q4 0:094th and 5Lagway 5-yd TD pass to Freeman, cuts it to 17-16Baylor 18% → 0% (−18)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q1 10:26Lagway fumbles trying to hurdle out of bounds, turning the ball over to AuburnLagway. Boyr/CFB game thread
Q2 9:47Auburn fans rip Neptune for fair catching punt at 2-yard lineYou should be banned from punt return if you ever do that. Do the players know the rules of football?r/CFB game thread
Q2 7:31Bush intercepts Brown's pass as fans mock the offense and Reggie BushLSU this, LSU that. You're telling me Baylor brought back REGGIE BUSH???r/CFB game threadBrown has not looked goodr/CFB game thread
Q3 0:03Auburn runs an obvious fake punt on fourth down that failsOfficially the worst fake punt in MBS historyr/CFB game thread
Q4 11:54Lagway's incomplete pass causes turnover on downs as fans mock the gameFlorida had a Lagway problem, not a Napier problemr/CFB game thread
Q4 1:33Fans criticize announcers for questioning Baylor's clock management with 17 seconds leftWtf are the announcers talking about it makes total sense to run the clock down in &goal situations you can't get a first down.r/CFB game threadWhat are these commentators rambling about. It makes complete sense to run the clockr/CFB game thread
Q4 0:13Baylor scores with 9 seconds left, trailing Auburn 17-16Quoted at the top of the page.

Auburn’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (Auburn -6.5), at 75% for Auburn (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a Auburn or Baylor flair (1,091 and 655); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Auburn’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

Auburn scored on 3 of its 13 drives; Baylor on 3 of its 13.

Auburn’s drives are teal, Baylor’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

From Baylor’s side

Baylor’s best moment: Brown intercepted by Gifford at the Baylor 45 (Q4 11:46). It lifted Baylor’s win chance by 12 points.

How Baylor fans took it: “My flair game proved interesting and unencouraging” r/CFB game thread

“We watching the same game?”

An Auburn fan

When fans got loud

Loud

The jump was loud; the crowd was loud.

Two crowds, one game

The words each side’s fans used far more than the other side, from the game thread.

Baylor fans

aranda“Our saving grace appears to be that Golesh is just as capable of making bad decisions as Aranda.”

Both sets of fans kept coming back to: now, back, don, ball.

What it cost

Auburn’s chance to make the playoff rose from 5% to 6%.

Make the playoff

Baylor · lost1% → 1%

Auburn · won5% → ▲6%

Before the game (September 4, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

Auburn 17, Baylor 16

Baylor covered +6.5 by 5.5. The total, 33, stayed under 58.5.

Team totals	Baylor	Auburn
Total yards	436	389
Passing	27 of 54, 333 yds	26 of 35, 259 yds
Rushing	45 for 103 yds	41 for 130 yds
First downs	27	24
Third down	7 of 22	10 of 18
Fourth down	4 of 6	0 of 1
Turnovers	2	3
Penalties	5 for 40 yds	6 for 47 yds
Time of possession	32:32	27:28

Baylor leaders

Passing D.J. Lagway 27 of 54, 333 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Dawson Pendergrass 25 for 88 yds; Caden Knighten 12 for 33 yds
Receiving Gavin Freeman 12 for 154 yds, 1 TD; Jadon Porter 5 for 77 yds

Auburn leaders

Passing Byrum Brown 26 of 35, 259 yds, 3 INT
Rushing Jeremiah Cobb 12 for 53 yds, 1 TD; Byrum Brown 21 for 27 yds, 1 TD
Receiving Keshaun Singleton 7 for 89 yds; Jeremiah Koger 5 for 66 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Baylor · 5-7

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings.

L 24-31 vs HoustonTop 25 #62 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

L 17-41 @ ArizonaTop 25 #41 of 667

lost by 24 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 28-55 vs UtahTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 27 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 30-3 vs UCF #54 of 667

won by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite

L 20-41 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #33 of 667

lost by 21 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 36-42 @ TCUTop 25 #31 of 667

lost by 6 as a 3.5-point underdog

W 35-34 vs Kansas StateTop 25 #50 of 667

won by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

W 45-27 @ Oklahoma State #102 of 667

won by 18 as a 21.5-point favorite

L 24-27 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #34 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

W 42-7 vs Samford #191 of 667

won by 35 as a 52.5-point favorite

W 48-45 @ SMUTop 25 #24 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 24-38 vs AuburnTop 25 #14 of 667

lost by 14 as a 1.5-point favorite

Last three games · 2025 season

Auburn · 5-7

Rated 71st in our preseason ratings.

L 20-27 vs AlabamaTop 25 #8 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 62-17 vs Mercer #90 of 667

won by 45 as a 26.5-point favorite

L 38-45 @ VanderbiltTop 25 #24 of 667

lost by 7 as a 5.5-point underdog

L 3-10 vs Kentucky #52 of 667

lost by 7 as an 11.5-point favorite

W 33-24 @ Arkansas #27 of 667

won by 9 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 17-23 vs MissouriTop 25 #11 of 667

lost by 6 as a 1.5-point underdog

L 10-20 vs GeorgiaTop 25 #6 of 667

lost by 10 as a 4.5-point underdog

L 10-16 @ Texas A&MTop 25 #14 of 667

lost by 6 as a 6.5-point underdog

L 17-24 @ OklahomaTop 25 #13 of 667

lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog

W 31-15 vs South Alabama #79 of 667

won by 16 as a 26.5-point favorite

W 42-3 vs Ball State #169 of 667

won by 39 as a 42.5-point favorite

W 38-24 @ Baylor #26 of 667

won by 14 as a 1.5-point underdog

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: Auburn’s passing EPA against Baylor, 70 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

Auburn’s EPA/play against Baylor’s defense
Auburn offense, 34th percentile · Baylor defense, 94th
Auburn’s passing EPA against Baylor’s defense
Auburn offense, 17th percentile · Baylor defense, 87th
Auburn’s explosive plays against Baylor’s defense
Auburn offense, 64th percentile · Baylor defense, 42nd

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

BaylorAuburn

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

The series

The series is tied 2-2-1

5 meetings since 1954 · Auburn won the last meeting

2025Auburn 38-24
1976Baylor 15-14
1975Tie 10-10
1965Baylor 14-8
1954 · neutral siteAuburn 33-13

Each line is Auburn’s chance to win through that meeting. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Baylor fans are feeling it less than most fanbases this week (25th among FBS fanbases), and the other side is no happier.

Auburn favored by 6.5 · Total 58.5

How games like this usually go

Auburn by 6.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Auburn beats Baylor 17-16