Baylor routs Prairie View A&M 44-3

Prairie View A&M1-23
Baylor1-144Final
Sat, Sep 12 · McLane Stadium, Waco, Texas · Crowd 38,642ESPN+

Baylor routed Prairie View A&M 44-3.

We had Baylor favored. It won.

Next: Prairie View A&M lost to Stephen F. Austin 31-10, Sat Sep 19

Next: Baylor beat Louisiana Tech 36-19, Sat Sep 19

How it swung

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Baylor an 88% chance, and the closing betting line (Baylor was a 37.5-point favorite) put it above 99%.

Baylor led by 14 after the first quarter and by 31 at the half.

Q1Q2Q3Q40+41+41
FinalBaylor 44-3 Prairie View A&MBaylor wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorWon44-3Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorWon44-3Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorLowest 0%Lost3-44Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q4BaylorLowest 0%Lost3-44Scores

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

No single play moved the chance by 20 points.

Baylor’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Baylor -37.5), at 99% for Baylor (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show Baylor’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

  1. Q1, 4:22Knighten 5-yd TD runBaylor goes ahead 10-3Q1, 4:22 · Baylor 10, Prairie View A&M 310-3score after the play10-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  2. Q1, 0:59Bennett 33-yd TD pass to McGowanBaylor leads 17-3Q1, 0:59 · Baylor 17, Prairie View A&M 317-3score after the play17-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  3. Q2, 13:51Bennett 22-yd TD pass to MillerBaylor leads 24-3Q2, 13:51 · Baylor 24, Prairie View A&M 324-3score after the play24-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  4. Q2, 12:55Bennett 17-yd TD runQ2, 12:55 · Baylor 31, Prairie View A&M 331-3score after the play31-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  5. Q2, 10:01Bennett intercepted by Davis at the Baylor 47Q2, 10:01 · Baylor 31, Prairie View A&M 331-3score after the play31-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  6. Q3, 7:53Bennett intercepted by Williams at the Baylor 45, returned 23 yardspersonal foul on PvamuQ3, 7:53 · Baylor 34, Prairie View A&M 334-3score after the play34-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  7. Q3, 1:39McGowan 13-yd TD runBaylor leads 41-3Q3, 1:39 · Baylor 41, Prairie View A&M 341-3score after the play41-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  8. Q3, 1:37Carter 11-yd runfumblesQ3, 1:37 · Baylor 41, Prairie View A&M 341-3score after the play41-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  9. Q4, 14:55Carter sacked for a 3-yd lossQ4, 14:55 · Baylor 41, Prairie View A&M 341-3score after the play41-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference
  10. Q4, 4:43Griffin intercepted by McKinley at the PVAMU39returned 17 yardsQ4, 4:43 · Baylor 44, Prairie View A&M 344-3score after the play44-3score after the playWatch from this playBig 12 Conference

Every drive

Baylor scored on 5 of its 11 drives; Prairie View A&M on 1 of its 16.

Baylor’s drives are teal, Prairie View A&M’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Prairie View A&M: Field goal, from 65 yards out to 8Field goalBaylor: Field goal, from 64 yards out to 29Field goalPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 77PuntBaylor: Touchdown, from 53 yards out to 0TouchdownPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntBaylor: Touchdown, from 36 yards out to 0TouchdownPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 89PuntQ2Baylor: Touchdown, from 44 yards out to 0TouchdownPrairie View A&M: Fumble, from 35 yards out to 41FumbleBaylor: Touchdown, from 17 yards out to 0TouchdownPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 62PuntBaylor: Interception, from 64 yards out to 64InterceptionPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 46 yards out to 39PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 46 yards out to 49PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 58PuntQ3Baylor: Punt, from 58 yards out to 15PuntBaylor: Punt, from 58 yards out to 42PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 80 yards out to 71PuntBaylor: Interception, from 61 yards out to 58InterceptionPrairie View A&M: Punt returned for a touchdown, from 45 yards out to 38Punt TDPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 41PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 64PuntQ4Prairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 53PuntPrairie View A&M: Punt, from 75 yards out to 71PuntBaylor: Interception, from 57 yards out to 44InterceptionBaylor: Uncategorized, from 80 yards out to 33Uncategorized

Box score

Baylor 44, Prairie View A&M 3

Baylor covered −37.5 by 3.5. The total, 47, stayed under 55.5.

Prairie View A&MBaylorTotal yardsPrairie View A&M 110Baylor 552110552Passing yardsPrairie View A&M 74Baylor 32074320Rushing yardsPrairie View A&M 36Baylor 23236232First downsPrairie View A&M 7Baylor 32732TurnoversPrairie View A&M 1Baylor 313Time of possessionPrairie View A&M 25:38Baylor 34:2225:3834:22
Team totalsPrairie View A&MBaylor
Total yards110552
Passing14 of 27, 74 yds25 of 42, 320 yds
Rushing25 for 36 yds42 for 232 yds
First downs732
Third down4 of 168 of 14
Fourth down0 of 02 of 2
Turnovers13
Penalties10 for 87 yds9 for 85 yds
Time of possession25:3834:22

Prairie View A&M leaders

  • Passing Tevin Carter 14 of 25, 74 yds
  • Rushing Zayvion Turner-Knox 4 for 12 yds; Tevin Carter 7 for 9 yds
  • Receiving Ky'Yon Harris 3 for 38 yds; Rodny Ojo 1 for 10 yds

Baylor leaders

  • Passing Nate Bennett 23 of 35, 301 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
  • Rushing Dawson Pendergrass 15 for 69 yds; Caden Knighten 12 for 66 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Gavin Freeman 10 for 104 yds; Jayden McGowan 3 for 67 yds, 1 TD

Feels like 91° to 102° through the game

97° at kickoff · feels like 91° to 102° · no rain recorded

A feels-like 102° is hotter than the peak in 99% of games since 2018.

Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 102°0120°
Every game's peak, with this game markedtypical game 71°This game: 102°0120°

Each gray tick is one game. The black line is the typical game.

September game-day temperatures at McLane Stadium

Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Baylor favoredPrairie View A&M favored100%Win chanceBaylorRaininches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWindmph, average and gusts20 mph40 mphHourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels likedegrees F80°110°feels like 93°air 88°
Win chance with rain, wind and thunder from the nearest airport, by game timeQ1Q2Q3Q4Baylor favoredPrairie View A&M favoredRain · inches per 10 min0.1 inNo rain recordedWind · miles per hour2040Hourly wind only at this airportTemperature and feels like · degrees F80°110°feels like 93°air 88°

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

First quarter, 14:40 left7:13 p.m.
Prairie View A&M 0, Baylor 0 · Baylor 99% to win
no rain · 96°, feels like 101°
Carter 0-yd pass to McDaniel
Where this weather comes fromMeasured at Waco airport, 6.0 miles away, and Waco airport, 7.8 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Prairie View A&M · 1-1

Rated 104th in our preseason ratings, 109th now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 52-14 vs Texas Southern #205 of 668

won by 38 as a 10.5-point favorite

Prairie View A&M won 52-14 vs Texas Southern. Chance to win started at 91%, low 89%, high better than 99%.

L 30-49 @ Tarleton State #94 of 668

lost by 19 as a 19.5-point underdog

Prairie View A&M lost 30-49 at Tarleton State. Chance to win started at 7%, low under 1%, high 12%.

Last three games · 2025 season

Baylor · 5-7

Rated 33rd in our preseason ratings, 36th now.

Three straight losses.

L 24-31 vs HoustonTop 25 #62 of 667

lost by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

Baylor lost 24-31 vs Houston. Chance to win started at 68%, low 4%, high 69%.

L 17-41 @ ArizonaTop 25 #41 of 667

lost by 24 as a 6.5-point underdog

Baylor lost 17-41 at Arizona. Chance to win started at 32%, low under 1%, high 52%.

L 28-55 vs UtahTop 25 #10 of 667

lost by 27 as a 9.5-point underdog

Baylor lost 28-55 vs Utah. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 43%.

W 30-3 vs UCF #54 of 667

won by 27 as a 3.5-point favorite

Baylor won 30-3 vs UCF. Chance to win started at 68%, low 66%, high better than 99%.

L 20-41 @ CincinnatiTop 25 #33 of 667

lost by 21 as a 3.5-point underdog

Baylor lost 20-41 at Cincinnati. Chance to win started at 35%, low under 1%, high 35%.

L 36-42 @ TCUTop 25 #31 of 667

lost by 6 as a 3.5-point underdog

Baylor lost 36-42 at TCU. Chance to win started at 33%, low under 1%, high 61%.

W 35-34 vs Kansas StateTop 25 #50 of 667

won by 1 as a 4.5-point favorite

Baylor won 35-34 vs Kansas State. Chance to win started at 70%, low 6%, high 96%.

W 45-27 @ Oklahoma State #102 of 667

won by 18 as a 21.5-point favorite

Baylor won 45-27 at Oklahoma State. Chance to win started at 88%, low 83%, high better than 99%.

L 24-27 vs Arizona StateTop 25 #34 of 667

lost by 3 as a 1.5-point favorite

Baylor lost 24-27 vs Arizona State. Chance to win started at 66%, low under 1%, high 74%.

W 42-7 vs Samford #191 of 667

won by 35 as a 52.5-point favorite

Baylor won 42-7 vs Samford. Never in doubt.

W 48-45 @ SMUTop 25 #24 of 667

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

L 24-38 vs AuburnTop 25 #14 of 667

lost by 14 as a 1.5-point favorite

Baylor lost 24-38 vs Auburn. Chance to win started at 58%, low 4%, high 75%.

Week by week

Baylor

  • Wk 1Lat Auburn16-17

Prairie View A&M

Wk 1: L 30-49 at Tarleton State▼19Tarleton StateWk 1: W 52-14 vs Texas Southern▲38Texas Southern
  • Wk 1Lat Tarleton State30-49
  • Wk 1Wvs Texas Southern52-14

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Baylor’s chances here.

50-50Model · 88%Line · 100%Prairie View A&MBaylor

Baylor favored by 37.5 · Total 55.5

How games like this usually go

Baylor by 37.5, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 411 games since 2025 with a favorite of 21.5 points or more.

The market

The total fell 1 point.

opened 56.5now 55.5

Total: 56.5 → 55.5

Home field

Baylor has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.9 points (±3.9), home against road — 5th percentile of FBS.

55% at home, 48% on the road against FBS opponents (26-21 home, 20-22 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -4.8 at home vs. away over 97 games — inside the ±5.9 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 121 miles to get here.

Where next