The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: Kansas 37%
Win out 6% · expect 2.0 of 4 more wins
UCF's chance to win each game left, from our model: Kansas 37%, Arizona State 47%, Iowa State 63%, Colorado 56%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
Bowl chance went from 65% to 66%, peaking at 84% before a game
Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.
StandingTied for 8th in the Big 12 · 2-3 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Keyone Jenkins 1,181 · Rushing Duke Watson 597 · Receiving Joshua Derry 428 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow UCF:athletics siteBig 12XYouTubeInstagram
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 3 | #103 | #174 | −43.5✓ +23.5 | Bethune-Cookman | W 73-6 120 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Barnett 158 · Rush Watson 110 · Rec Derry 45 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #103 | #45 | +7.5✓ +2.5 | @Pittsburgh | L 7-12 125 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Barnett 186 · Rush Barnett 13 · Rec Farmer 52 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #93 | #139 | −17.5✗ −3.5 | Georgia State | W 44-30 141 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Jenkins 86 · Rush Watson 177 · Rec Charles 46 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #94 | #46 | +3.5✓ +11.5 | TCU | W 21-13 120 | 3-1 | 1-0 | Pass Jenkins 160 · Rush Watson 57 · Rec Derry 41 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #80 | #12 | +10.5✓ +0.5 | @Houston | L 17-27 136 | 3-2 | 1-1 | Pass Jenkins 253 · Rush Watson 50 · Rec Derry 101 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #67 | #142 | +10.5✗ −3.5 | @Oklahoma State | L 28-42 143 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass Jenkins 265 · Rush Watson 79 · Rec Derry 84 |
| 7 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | #68 | #11 | +7.5✓ +15.5 | BYUTop 10 win | W 39-31 151 | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Jenkins 293 · Rush Watson 94 · Rec Hornes 137 |
| 9 | Oct 30 | #57 | #35 | +2.5✗ −29.5 | Baylor | L 9-41 134 | 4-4 | 2-3 | Pass Barnett 133 · Rush Marriott 50 · Rec Derry 70 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #79 | #64 | +2.5 | @Kansas | 3:45 pm ET · ESPN237% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #83 | #59 | Arizona State | time TBA47% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | Iowa State | 6 pm ET · FS163% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Colorado | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for UCF, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for UCF: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30 | Baylor | L 9-41 | 281 | 2 | 30:52 | -0.263 | 29.4% | 1.09 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | BYU | W 39-31 | 463 | 0 | 32:35 | +0.223 | 51.8% | 1.01 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | @Oklahoma State | L 28-42 | 375 | 2 | 35:15 | +0.179 | 43.9% | 1.30 | |
| Oct 3 | @Houston | L 17-27 | 332 | 1 | 26:38 | +0.072 | 29.5% | 1.77 | Most explosive |
| Sep 26 | TCU | W 21-13 | 266 | 2 | 27:11 | -0.051 | 45.5% | 0.65 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | Georgia State | W 44-30 | 390 | 1 | 26:40 | +0.228 | 42.9% | 1.34 | |
| Sep 12 | @Pittsburgh | L 7-12 | 206 | 0 | 23:48 | -0.252 | 27.8% | 1.44 | One-score loss |
| Sep 3 | Bethune-Cookman | W 73-6 | 560 | 1 | 28:05 | +0.549 | 56.5% | 1.41 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 359 | 1.1 | +0.086 | 40.9% | 1.25 | ||||
UCF's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Sportsbook odds · Oct 19. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
We have trouble identifying captains this year because there’s too many guys that qualify for it
The open questionwhere does it go from here?
Scott Frost inherits a 5-7 losing record at UCF, a program that once went 13-0 but now faces questions about sustaining its Big 12 ascent.
Statusfront page
Scott Frost inherits a 5-7 losing record and a talent rank of #66, raising questions about whether UCF can reclaim its 2017 identity amid a win total that fell below bowl eligibility.
Statusdeveloping
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · UCF · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 5%; 5 wins 24%; 6 wins 38%; 7 wins 26%; 8 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
This event was in 338 of 4530 board posts (7%) over the last 60 days, a modest share of the conversation. Fan text is shown verbatim and credited to the community it came from; posters stay anonymous.
Board health this week (148 posts): 15% positive · 44% neutral · 41% negative. This is the team's mood for the whole week, across all topics. Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-4
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Big 12 teams the same season
UCF is the program that finished 13-0, watched the sport refuse to consider it, and hung a national-championship banner anyway — a swagger it dragged all the way into the Big 12.
The 2017 snub is foundational scripture in Orlando: an undefeated team the system wouldn't even rank highest among one-loss blue bloods. Knights fans will tell you the banner is real, the title is…
UCF · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.
UCF at Kansas · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 3:45 pm ET · ESPN2 · Memorial Stadium.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
This game is at Memorial Stadium. The kickoff times below are for FBC Mortgage Stadium, UCF's home stadium.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
UCF is the program that went 13-0 in 2017 + declared themselves national champions + later won the New Year's Six Peach Bowl, and whose Big 12 entry in 2023 completed the G5-to-P5 ascent.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 3 signees
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
4Scott Frost inherits a 5-7 losing record at UCF, a program that once went 13-0 but now faces questions about sustaining its Big 12 ascent.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · UCF · 2026