UCF 44-30 Georgia State (Sep 19, 2026) Final Score

Team pages: Georgia State · UCF

Georgia State2-130

UCF2-144Final

Sat, Sep 19 · FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando, Fla. · Crowd 44,620

UCF beat Georgia State 44-30.

We had UCF favored. It won.

Next: Georgia State beat Northern Illinois 35-14, Sat Sep 26

Next: UCF beat TCU 21-13, Sat Sep 26

Top comment in the game thread

This is going to be a long season

Q2 7:01 · r/CFB game thread · Sat, Sep 19

How it swung

The turning point: Watson 63-yd TD run, UCF goes ahead 27-24 (Q3, 14:42). UCF went from 70% to 88% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave UCF a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (UCF was a 17.5-point favorite) put it at 92%.

Favored the whole way: UCF never fell below 70%.

Georgia State never had better than a 30% chance.

78-yard TD run

Georgia State · Q2 7:01

FinalUCF 44-30 Georgia StateUCF wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 14:42Watson 63-yd TD run, UCF goes ahead 27-24UCF 70% → 88% (+18)
2Q3 5:23InterceptionBrown intercepted by Curtis at the UCF 18, returned 38 yardsUCF 73% → 86% (+13)

The two plays that swung it

1Q3 14:42Watson 63-yd TD run, UCF goes ahead 27-24Georgia State 30% → 12% (−18)
2Q3 5:23InterceptionBrown intercepted by Curtis at the UCF 18, returned 38 yardsGeorgia State 27% → 14% (−13)

What fans said, play by play

The line in bold above each quote is written by our model from the thread’s comments and the play-by-play.

Q2 8:52Brown to Dorsey touchdown pass makes it 17-14 UCF as fans debate the catchGreat catch. This UCF team sucks ass.r/CFB game thread
Q2 7:01Wiggins runs 78 yards for touchdown as UCF fans demand Frost's firingThank god that Frost has made us completely irrelevant. Otherwise this would be really embarrassing.r/CFB game threadQuoted at the top of the page.
Q2 2:52UCF fans lament the season as Jenkins throws an incomplete passLet’s just stare down the receiver you want to throw to that is five yards behind the line of scrimmage and then bounce it to him….great jobr/CFB game thread
Q3 6:21UCF fans demand Frost bench Jenkins after his loss and subsequent interceptionNever. Play. Jenkins. Again.r/CFB game thread
Q4 1:42UCF fans mock the quarterback's performance as Chambers rushes for 35 yardsLike KJ Jefferson, just skinnier.r/CFB game threadYou, sitting on your couch right now, could probably throw better.r/CFB game thread

UCF’s chance to win after every play.

How to read this chart

Starts from the pregame line (UCF -17.5), at 92% for UCF (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays. Under the scores, r/CFB comments per minute from fans with a UCF or Georgia State flair (415 and 37); both sides share one scale, regulation only. A gold diamond marks a play fans were reacting to.

Watch the plays

The bar and the arrow show UCF’s chance to win after each play; the logo is the team the play helped.

Every drive

UCF scored on 8 of its 12 drives; Georgia State on 6 of its 13.

UCF’s drives are teal, Georgia State’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

“Just wait for the defense!”

A UCF fan

How fans reacted

Steady

Fans saved their loudest stretch for the third quarter.

Jump to the loudest stretch

The jump was steady; the crowd was quiet.

What it cost

Georgia State’s chance to make the playoff fell from 4% to 0%.

Make the playoff

Georgia State · lost4% → ▼0%

UCF · won1% → ▼0%

Win the conference

Georgia State · lost11% → ▲21%

UCF · won1% → ▲3%

Before the game (September 18, 2026) → after this result, in our model.

Box score

UCF 44, Georgia State 30

Georgia State covered +17.5 by 3.5. The total, 74, went over 50.5.

Team totals	Georgia State	UCF
Total yards	485	390
Passing	30 of 49, 282 yds	7 of 17, 86 yds
Rushing	35 for 203 yds	40 for 304 yds
First downs	25	17
Third down	8 of 16	3 of 12
Fourth down	1 of 3	1 of 1
Turnovers	3	1
Penalties	7 for 60 yds	7 for 48 yds
Time of possession	33:20	26:40

Georgia State leaders

Passing Cameran Brown 30 of 47, 282 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT
Rushing Qwantavius Wiggins 11 for 125 yds, 1 TD; Lanear McCrary Jr. 10 for 51 yds
Receiving DJ Riles 7 for 69 yds; Rodshaun Dorsey 4 for 32 yds, 2 TD

UCF leaders

Passing Keyone Jenkins 7 of 17, 86 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
Rushing Duke Watson 14 for 177 yds, 2 TD; Landen Chambers 9 for 62 yds
Receiving Waden Charles 3 for 46 yds, 1 TD; Joshua Derry 2 for 24 yds

No rain and calm

82° at kickoff · no rain recorded · wind 6 mph from the east, gusts to 15

September game-day temperatures at FBC Mortgage Stadium

Drag along the chart, or step through the game.

Third quarter, 14:42 left8:54 p.m.

Georgia State 24, UCF 27 · UCF 88% to win

no rain · wind 5 mph from the east · 79°

Watson 63-yd TD run, UCF goes ahead 27-24

Measured at Orlando/herndon airport, 9.5 miles away, and Sanford/orlando airport, 12 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last two games

Georgia State · 2-0

Rated 155th in our preseason ratings, 139th now, up 16 spots.

Two straight wins, capped by a 14-point win over Kennesaw State as a 7.5-point underdog.

W 31-17 @ Kennesaw State #149 of 668

won by 14 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 59-10 vs North Carolina A&T #264 of 668

won by 49 as a 28.5-point favorite

Last two games

UCF · 1-1

Rated 103rd in our preseason ratings, 93rd now.

1-1 in its last two — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

L 7-12 @ PittsburghTop 25 #48 of 668

lost by 5 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 73-6 vs Bethune-Cookman #184 of 668

won by 67 as a 43.5-point favorite

Week by week

UCF

Wk 1Wvs Bethune-Cookman73-6
Wk 2Lat Pittsburgh7-12

Georgia State

Wk 1Wvs North Carolina A&T59-10
Wk 2Wat Kennesaw State31-17

Power rating by week

UCF is rated 3.3 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

Matchups

Biggest mismatch: UCF’s passing EPA against Georgia State, 56 points

Each row ranks the two sides among all teams. The longer the line, the bigger the mismatch.

UCF’s passing EPA against Georgia State’s defense
UCF offense, 34th percentile · Georgia State defense, 90th
Georgia State’s explosive plays against UCF’s defense
Georgia State offense, 48th percentile · UCF defense, 82nd
UCF’s success rate against Georgia State’s defense
UCF offense, 36th percentile · Georgia State defense, 71st

Season profile, all the rows

Season profile

Georgia StateUCF

EPA/play, offense

EPA/play, defense

Success rate, offense

Success rate, defense

Explosive-play rate, offense

Explosive-play rate, defense

Rush EPA, offense

Rush EPA, defense

Pass EPA, offense

Pass EPA, defense

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Georgia State fans are in a better mood than UCF fans (53rd vs 13th among FBS fanbases), even with UCF favored.

UCF favored by 17.5 · Total 50.5

How games like this usually go

UCF by 17.5, and it went to form

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 3.5 points toward Georgia State.

The total rose 1 point.

The books’ cut: 4.2%, the margin built into the odds

Weather at kickoff

Warm and dry. Feels like 84° at kickoff.

Georgia State at UCF · Saturday, Sept. 19, 2026 · FBC Mortgage Stadium, Orlando

84°feels like at kickoff
Dryno rain at kickoff
92weather score, Comfortable
Tiedfor the best of the day's 8 kickoff times

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Later kickoff times scored higher that Saturday

Games in this time zone used 8 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's eight kickoff times. At FBC Mortgage Stadium that day, a 7:45 pm kickoff would have scored 94, against 92 at 7:30 pm.

noon: 53, Rough
1 pm: 56, Rough
2 pm: 56, Rough
3:30 pm: 67, Rough
4 pm: 79, Mixed
6 pm: 83, Mixed
7:30 pm: 92, Comfortable (this game)
7:45 pm: 94, Comfortable

Weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.

At kickoff, Sept. 19, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.

Home field

UCF is worth +6.4 points (±3.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 87th percentile.

74% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (35-12 home, 19-26 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +3.8 at home vs. away over 99 games — inside the ±6.1 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 401 miles to get here.

UCF beats Georgia State 44-30