The rest of the season
Two real tests left: UAlbany 9%, Monmouth 10%
Win out 1% · expect 1.0 of 3 more wins
North Carolina A&T's chance to win each game left, from our model: Monmouth 10%, Hampton 84%, UAlbany 9%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Kevin White 1,357 · Rushing J.T. Smith Jr. 405 · Receiving Michael Carlock-Williams 385 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow North Carolina A&T:athletics siteCoastal AthleticX
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Morgan State | L 7-17 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Thomas 240 · Rush Smith Jr. 51 · Rec Jones-Amen-Hetep 52 |
| 1 | Sep 4 | @Georgia State | L 10-59 71 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass White 122 · Rush Smith Jr. 44 · Rec Rucker 80 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @North Carolina Central | L 22-30 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass White 259 · Rush White 42 · Rec Kennedy 112 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Campbell | L 14-42 | 0-4 | 0-1 | Pass Long 148 · Rush Smith Jr. 15 · Rec Kennedy 65 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Rhode Island | W 22-18 | 1-4 | 1-1 | Pass White 139 · Rush Smith Jr. 68 · Rec Rucker 45 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Bryant | L 30-31 | 1-5 | 1-2 | Pass White 181 · Rush Smith Jr. 68 · Rec Carlock-Williams 73 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | New Hampshire | W 30-27 | 2-5 | 2-2 | Pass White 230 · Rush Blizzard 72 · Rec Carlock-Williams 129 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Chicago State | W 27-12 | 3-5 | 2-2 | Pass White 199 · Rush Smith Jr. 39 · Rec Kennedy 50 |
| 8 | Bye week | |||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | Elon | W 13-10 | 4-5 | 3-2 | Pass White 94 · Rush White 97 · Rec Dillard 23 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Monmouth | 12 pm ET10% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Hampton | 1 pm ET84% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | UAlbany | 12 pm ET9% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for North Carolina A&T, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Elon | W 13-10 | — | — | — | −0.009 | 34.4% | 1.35 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Chicago State | W 27-12 | — | — | — | +0.118 | 32.2% | 1.53 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 10 | New Hampshire | W 30-27 | — | — | — | +0.161 | 32.9% | 1.81 | Most explosive |
| Oct 3 | @Bryant | L 30-31 | — | — | — | +0.141 | 41.1% | 1.03 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | Rhode Island | W 22-18 | — | — | — | −0.029 | 31.5% | 1.49 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @Campbell | L 14-42 | — | — | — | +0.187 | 39.3% | 1.33 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @North Carolina Central | L 22-30 | — | — | — | +0.005 | 33.8% | 1.68 | One-score loss |
| Sep 4 | @Georgia State | L 10-59 | — | — | — | −0.065 | 29.1% | 1.34 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Morgan State | L 7-17 | — | — | — | +0.118 | 34.8% | 1.38 | |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.070 | 34.3% | 1.44 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · North Carolina A&T · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 13%; 5 wins 72%; 6 wins 15%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Coastal Athletic teams the same season
North Carolina A&T is 4-5 and plays at Monmouth next.
North Carolina A&T is 4-5 and plays at Monmouth next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · North Carolina A&T · 2026