Morgan State beats North Carolina A&T 17-7

Morgan State1-017
North Carolina A&T0-17Final
Sat, Aug 29 · Aggie Stadium, Greensboro, N.C. · Crowd 16,264FloSports

Morgan State beat North Carolina A&T 17-7.

How it swung

The turning point: Thomas sacked for a 6-yd loss, turnover on downs (Q4, 4:47). Morgan State went from 66% to 86% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Morgan State a 52% chance, and the closing betting line (Morgan State was a 7-point favorite) put it at 71%.

Down to 27% in the third quarter, Morgan State came back to win.

Up to 73% in the third quarter, then North Carolina A&T lost it.

17 unansweredMorgan State · Q4 14:23
FinalMorgan State 17-7 North Carolina A&TMorgan State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfMorgan StateLowest 27%Won17-712+19+20Scores
50%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q438% at halfMorgan StateLowest 27%Won17-712Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfMorgan StateHigh 73%Lost7-1712−19−20Scores
50%10%25%75%Q1Q2Q3Q462% at halfMorgan StateHigh 73%Lost7-1712Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:23Edge 68-yd TD pass to Towler, Morgan State goes ahead 10-7Morgan State 43% → 62% (+19)
  2. 2Q4 4:474th and 2Thomas sacked for a 6-yd loss, turnover on downsMorgan State 66% → 86% (+20)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 14:23Edge 68-yd TD pass to Towler, Morgan State goes ahead 10-7North Carolina A&T 57% → 38% (−19)
  2. 2Q4 4:474th and 2Thomas sacked for a 6-yd loss, turnover on downsNorth Carolina A&T 34% → 14% (−20)
Morgan State’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Morgan State -7), at 61% for Morgan State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Morgan State scored on 3 of its 9 drives; North Carolina A&T on 1 of its 9.

Morgan State’s drives are teal, North Carolina A&T’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Morgan State: Punt, from 86 yards out to 68PuntNorth Carolina A&T: Touchdown, from 70 yards out to 0TouchdownMorgan State: Punt, from 90 yards out to 79PuntNorth Carolina A&T: Punt, from 53 yards out to 47PuntQ2Morgan State: Interception, from 97 yards out to 92InterceptionNorth Carolina A&T: Missed field goal, from 57 yards out to 26Missed FGMorgan State: Field goal, from 74 yards out to 8Field goalNorth Carolina A&T: Punt, from 75 yards out to 57PuntMorgan State: End of half, from 85 yards out to 86End of halfQ3North Carolina A&T: Punt, from 90 yards out to 57PuntMorgan State: Turned over on downs, from 67 yards out to 32DownsNorth Carolina A&T: Missed field goal, from 68 yards out to 4Missed FGMorgan State: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4North Carolina A&T: Punt, from 73 yards out to 35PuntMorgan State: Punt, from 80 yards out to 76PuntNorth Carolina A&T: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 48DownsMorgan State: Touchdown, from 52 yards out to 0TouchdownNorth Carolina A&T: Uncategorized, from 72 yards out to 32Uncategorized

From North Carolina A&T’s side

North Carolina A&T’s best moment: Edge incomplete to Aggies, turnover on downs (Q3 5:28). It lifted North Carolina A&T’s win chance by 14 points.

Too close to call on 63% of plays.

Box score

Morgan State 17, North Carolina A&T 7

Morgan State covered −7 by 3. The total, 24, stayed under 49.5.

Morgan State leaders

  • Passing Cameron Edge 13 of 19, 167 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Jordan Barnett 12 for 114 yds, 1 TD; Cameron Edge 1 for 4 yds
  • Receiving Joseph Towler 1 for 68 yds, 1 TD; Justin Perry 4 for 45 yds

North Carolina A&T leaders

  • Passing Braxton Thomas 20 of 32, 240 yds
  • Rushing J.T. Smith Jr. 19 for 51 yds; Braxton Thomas 10 for 24 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Rory Jones-Amen-Hetep 2 for 52 yds; Jayvonne Dillard 3 for 50 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games · 2025 season

Morgan State · 4-8

Rated 218th in our preseason ratings.

L 14-33 vs North Carolina Central #132 of 667

lost by 19 as a 9.5-point underdog

W 35-28 @ Norfolk State #241 of 667

won by 7 as a 5.5-point favorite

L 12-14 vs Delaware State #172 of 667

lost by 2 as a 3.5-point underdog

L 30-36 @ South Carolina State #150 of 667

lost by 6 as an 11.5-point underdog

L 27-33 @ Howard #219 of 667

lost by 6 as a 1-point favorite

W 44-6 vs Virginia Lynchburg

Morgan State won 44-6 vs Virginia Lynchburg. Chance to win started at 58%, low 57%, high better than 99%.

L 24-27 @ Georgetown #241 of 667

lost by 3 as a 2.5-point favorite

W 24-17 vs Miles #350 of 667

W 27-0 vs Central State #407 of 667

L 0-60 @ Toledo #51 of 667

lost by 60 as a 33.5-point underdog

Morgan State lost 0-60 at Toledo. Chance to win started at 2%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 22-27 vs Towson #144 of 667

lost by 5 as a 10-point underdog

L 21-38 @ South Alabama #75 of 667

lost by 17 as a 28.5-point underdog

Morgan State lost 21-38 at South Alabama. Chance to win started at 3%, low under 1%, high 10%.

Last three games · 2025 season

North Carolina A&T · 2-10

Rated 263rd in our preseason ratings.

L 17-55 @ Elon #171 of 667

lost by 38 as a 21-point underdog

L 19-63 vs Monmouth #106 of 667

lost by 44 as a 21.5-point underdog

L 12-38 @ Stony Brook #170 of 667

lost by 26 as an 18.5-point underdog

L 9-62 vs Towson #167 of 667

lost by 53 as a 7.5-point underdog

W 28-24 vs Campbell #241 of 667

won by 4 as a 3-point underdog

L 16-22 vs South Carolina State #162 of 667

lost by 6 as a 9.5-point underdog

L 34-38 @ William & Mary #173 of 667

lost by 4 as a 20.5-point underdog

L 30-37 @ Maine #213 of 667

lost by 7 as a 13.5-point underdog

L 20-62 vs North Carolina Central #153 of 667

lost by 42 as a 13-point underdog

W 33-30 vs Hampton #224 of 667

won by 3 as a 3-point underdog

L 7-68 @ UCF #54 of 667

lost by 61 as a 37-point underdog

North Carolina A&T lost 7-68 at UCF. Never had a real chance.

L 21-24 @ Tennessee State #191 of 667

lost by 3 as a 6.5-point underdog

The series

Morgan State leads the series 10-5

15 meetings since 2003 · Morgan State has won the last 2

North Carolina A&T wonMorgan State won2003: North Carolina A&T by 72004: Morgan State by 22005: North Carolina A&T by 72006: Morgan State by 322007: Morgan State by 52008: Morgan State by 382009: Morgan State by 12010: Morgan State by 132011: North Carolina A&T by 212012: Morgan State by 32013: Morgan State by 12014: North Carolina A&T by 452017: North Carolina A&T by 322018: Morgan State by 32019: Morgan State by 620032019
  • 2019Morgan State 22-16
  • 2018Morgan State 16-13
  • 2017North Carolina A&T 49-17
  • 2014North Carolina A&T 45-0
  • 2013Morgan State 24-23

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on North Carolina A&T’s chances here.

50-50Model · 48%Line · 29%Morgan StateNorth Carolina A&T

Morgan State favored by 7 · Total 49.5

How games like this usually go

Morgan State by 7, and it went to form

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 377 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 1.5 points toward North Carolina A&T.

opened +8.5now +7

The total fell 1 point.

opened 50.5now 49.5

Spread: +8.5 → +7 · Total: 50.5 → 49.5

The books’ cut: 5.2%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

North Carolina A&T has had no measurable home edge since 2018 — +0.2 points, home against road — 3rd percentile of FBS.

0% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (0-1 home, 1-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.2 at home vs. away over 49 games — inside the ±8.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 285 miles to get here.

Where next