The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Villanova 16%, Holy Cross 30%, Fordham 65%
Win out 3% · expect 1.1 of 3 more wins
Georgetown Hoyas's chance to win each game left, from our model: Holy Cross 30%, Fordham 65%, Villanova 16%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Gavin Beard 705 · Rushing Clay Ash 501 · Receiving Hassan Mahasin 329 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | Lafayette | 7 pm ET47% to win | |||
| 1 | Sep 5 | Lehigh | L 14-45 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Holtschlag 71 · Rush Johnson 46 · Rec Pyle-Thompson 56 |
| 2 | Bye week | |||||
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Richmond | L 21-24 | 0-2 | 0-2 | Pass Johnson 193 · Rush Sumpter 92 · Rec Mahasin 121 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | Columbia | L 17-20 | 0-3 | 0-2 | Pass Johnson 119 · Rush Ash 79 · Rec Grimes 34 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Cornell | L 14-35 | 0-4 | 0-2 | Pass Johnson 145 · Rush Sumpter 62 · Rec Mahasin 69 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Bucknell | W 21-14 | 1-4 | 1-2 | Pass Beard 158 · Rush Ash 135 · Rec Alexander 38 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Colgate | W 27-17 | 2-4 | 2-2 | Pass Beard 175 · Rush Ash 113 · Rec Mahasin 47 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @William & Mary | W 28-27 | 3-4 | 3-2 | Pass Beard 265 · Rush Ash 66 · Rec Alexander 124 |
| 9 | Bye week | |||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Holy Cross | 12:30 pm ET30% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Fordham | 12 pm ET65% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Villanova | 1 pm ET | |||
Win chances are our model for Georgetown Hoyas, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24 | @William & Mary | W 28-27 | — | — | — | +0.143 | 44.9% | 1.03 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 17 | @Colgate | W 27-17 | — | — | — | +0.134 | 44.8% | 1.11 | |
| Oct 10 | Bucknell | W 21-14 | — | — | — | +0.140 | 41.1% | 1.24 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | Cornell | L 14-35 | — | — | — | −0.031 | 37.0% | 1.18 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 26 | Columbia | L 17-20 | — | — | — | −0.090 | 25.5% | 1.45 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Richmond | L 21-24 | — | — | — | +0.062 | 27.8% | 1.66 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | Lehigh | L 14-45 | — | — | — | +0.003 | 31.0% | 1.47 | Blowout loss |
| Season average (7 games) | — | — | +0.052 | 36.0% | 1.31 | ||||
Live
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vs Lafayette · Thu Aug 27 · 7 pm ET
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and won the last three.
Range of outcomes · Georgetown Hoyas · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 11%; 4 wins 37%; 5 wins 37%; 6 wins 14%; 7 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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