Georgetown beats William & Mary 28-27

Team pages: Georgetown · William & Mary

Georgetown3-428
William & Mary3-527Final
Sat, Oct 24 · Zable Stadium, Williamsburg, Va. · Crowd 12,369ESPN+

Georgetown beat William & Mary 28-27 after its win chance fell to 4%.

Winners have been down to 4% or less in about 1 of every 30 games since 2018.

We had Georgetown favored. It won.

Next: Georgetown vs Holy Cross, Sat Nov 7 · 12:30 PM ET

Next: William & Mary at Colgate, Sat Oct 31 · 1:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Beard 10-yd TD pass to Mahasin, Georgetown goes ahead 28-27 (Q4, 0:43). Georgetown went from 33% to 76% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Georgetown a 61% chance, and the closing betting line (Georgetown was a 6-point underdog) put it at 31%.

TargetingQ1 9:38TargetingQ4 12:00
FinalGeorgetown 28-27 William & MaryGeorgetown wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q445% at halfGeorgetownWon28-27ScoresTargetingTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q445% at halfGeorgetownWon28-27ScoresTargetingTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q455% at halfGeorgetownLost27-28ScoresTargetingTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q455% at halfGeorgetownLost27-28ScoresTargetingTargeting

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 1:2733-yd puntGeorgetown 5% → 34% (+29)
  2. 2Q4 0:434th and 10Beard 10-yd TD pass to Mahasin, Georgetown goes ahead 28-27Georgetown 33% → 76% (+43)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q4 1:2733-yd puntWilliam & Mary 95% → 66% (−29)
  2. 2Q4 0:434th and 10Beard 10-yd TD pass to Mahasin, Georgetown goes ahead 28-27William & Mary 67% → 24% (−43)
Georgetown’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (William & Mary -6), at 13% for Georgetown (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Georgetown scored on 4 of its 14 drives; William & Mary on 5 of its 13.

Georgetown’s drives are teal, William & Mary’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1William & Mary: Touchdown, from 68 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgetown: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 68 yards out to 100PuntGeorgetown: Turned over on downs, from 60 yards out to 38DownsWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 62 yards out to 37PuntGeorgetown: Punt, from 98 yards out to 89PuntWilliam & Mary: Interception, from 44 yards out to 41InterceptionGeorgetown: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 72 yards out to 60PuntQ2Georgetown: Interception, from 64 yards out to 4InterceptionWilliam & Mary: Touchdown, from 80 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgetown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 79PuntWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 53 yards out to 50PuntGeorgetown: End of half, from 90 yards out to 58End of halfQ3Georgetown: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownGeorgetown: Punt, from 76 yards out to 72PuntWilliam & Mary: Interception, from 66 yards out to 46InterceptionGeorgetown: Punt, from 71 yards out to 63PuntWilliam & Mary: Field goal, from 59 yards out to 14Field goalQ4Georgetown: Punt, from 75 yards out to 74PuntWilliam & Mary: Field goal, from 52 yards out to 4Field goalGeorgetown: Turned over on downs, from 75 yards out to 20DownsWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 80 yards out to 80PuntGeorgetown: Touchdown, from 50 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Interception, from 65 yards out to 65InterceptionGeorgetown: Uncategorized, from 40 yards out to 42Uncategorized

From William & Mary’s side

William & Mary’s best moment: Beard incomplete to Alexander, turnover on downs (Q4 1:52). It lifted William & Mary’s win chance by 19 points.

The winner fell to 4%.

Box score

Georgetown 28, William & Mary 27

Georgetown covered +6 by 7. The total, 55, went over 48.5.

Georgetown leaders

  • Passing Gavin Beard 21 of 36, 265 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT
  • Rushing Clay Ash 15 for 66 yds; Jayden Sumpter 13 for 53 yds
  • Receiving Jonathan Alexander 4 for 124 yds, 1 TD; Samir Crosby 3 for 51 yds, 1 TD

William & Mary leaders

  • Passing Winston Watkins 11 of 24, 149 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing Andrew King 11 for 96 yds, 1 TD; Jah'Kei Chavis 19 for 66 yds, 1 TD
  • Receiving Khylil Johnson 3 for 70 yds, 1 TD; Kai Austin 3 for 27 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Georgetown · 2-4

Rated 259th in our preseason ratings, 248th now, up 11 spots.

2-1 in its last three, capped by a 10-point win over Colgate as a 20.5-point underdog.

W 27-17 @ Colgate No. 169 of 668 teams

won by 10 as a 20.5-point underdog

Georgetown won 27-17 at Colgate. Chance to win started at 6%, low 1%, high better than 99%.

W 21-14 vs Bucknell No. 253 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 2.5-point favorite

Georgetown won 21-14 vs Bucknell. Chance to win started at 70%, low 38%, high better than 99%.

L 14-35 vs Cornell No. 221 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as an 8.5-point underdog

Georgetown lost 14-35 vs Cornell. Chance to win started at 27%, low under 1%, high 37%.

L 17-20 vs Columbia No. 230 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 7-point underdog

Georgetown lost 17-20 vs Columbia. Chance to win started at 37%, low under 1%, high 74%.

L 21-24 @ Richmond No. 198 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 15.5-point underdog

Georgetown lost 21-24 at Richmond. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 37%.

L 14-45 vs Lehigh No. 140 of 668 teams

lost by 31 as a 22.5-point underdog

Georgetown lost 14-45 vs Lehigh. Chance to win started at 9%, low under 1%, high 11%.

Last three games

William & Mary · 3-4

Rated 183rd in our preseason ratings, 253rd now.

1-2 in its last three, capped by a 3-point win over North Carolina Central as a 2.5-point underdog.

W 17-14 @ North Carolina Central No. 243 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 2.5-point underdog

William & Mary won 17-14 at North Carolina Central. Chance to win started at 33%, low 30%, high 89%.

L 14-41 vs Holy Cross No. 216 of 668 teams

lost by 27 as a 6-point favorite

William & Mary lost 14-41 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 77%, low under 1%, high 78%.

L 7-62 @ DukeTop 25 No. 51 of 668 teams

lost by 55 as a 43.5-point underdog

William & Mary lost 7-62 at Duke. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 27-52 vs Fordham No. 240 of 668 teams

lost by 25 as a 15.5-point favorite

William & Mary lost 27-52 vs Fordham. Chance to win started at 89%, low under 1%, high 93%.

L 20-44 @ Lehigh No. 133 of 668 teams

lost by 24 as a 13.5-point underdog

William & Mary lost 20-44 at Lehigh. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 15%.

W 22-15 vs Delaware State No. 187 of 668 teams

won by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

William & Mary won 22-15 vs Delaware State. Chance to win started at 81%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

W 35-32 @ Villanova No. 146 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

William & Mary won 35-32 at Villanova. Chance to win started at 13%, low 2%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

William & Mary

Wk 2: L 20-44 at Lehigh▼24LehighWk 3: L 27-52 vs Fordham▼25FordhamWk 4: L 7-62 at Duke▼55DukeWk 5: L 14-41 vs Holy Cross▼27Holy Cro…Wk 6: W 17-14 at North Carolina Central▲3N. Carol…
  • Wk 2Lat Lehigh20-44
  • Wk 3Lvs Fordham27-52
  • Wk 4Lat Duke7-62
  • Wk 5Lvs Holy Cross14-41
  • Wk 6Wat North Carolina Central17-14

Georgetown

Wk 3: L 21-24 at Richmond▼3RichmondWk 4: L 17-20 vs Columbia▼3ColumbiaWk 5: L 14-35 vs Cornell▼21CornellWk 6: W 21-14 vs Bucknell▲7BucknellWk 7: W 27-17 at Colgate▲10Colgate
  • Wk 3Lat Richmond21-24
  • Wk 4Lvs Columbia17-20
  • Wk 5Lvs Cornell14-35
  • Wk 6Wvs Bucknell21-14
  • Wk 7Wat Colgate27-17

Power rating by week

Georgetown is rated 0.9 points ahead as of week 7. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-10-13Wk 0Wk 4Wk 7William & MaryGeorgetown

The series

Georgetown leads the series 2-1

3 meetings since 1911 · Georgetown won the last meeting

  • 1934Georgetown 3-0
  • 1933William & Mary 12-6
  • 1911Georgetown 66-0

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on William & Mary’s chances here.

50-50Model · 39%Line · 69%GeorgetownWilliam & Mary

William & Mary favored by 6 · Total 48.5

How games like this usually go

William & Mary by 6, on the usual path until 0:26 left in the fourth

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 395 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.

The market

The total rose 1 point.

opened 47.5now 48.5

Total: 47.5 → 48.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

William & Mary is worth +9.1 points (±9.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.

33% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 1-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.9 at home vs. away over 56 games — inside the ±8.3 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

The visitors travel about 115 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.