Fordham upsets William & Mary 52-27

Team pages: Fordham · William & Mary

Fordham1-352
William & Mary2-227Final
Sat, Sep 19 · Zable Stadium, Williamsburg, Va. · Crowd 11,743ESPN+

Fordham beat William & Mary 52-27 as a 15.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 7%.

Winners have been down to 7% or less in about 1 of every 15 games since 2018.

We had William & Mary favored. Fordham won.

Next: Fordham lost to Stony Brook 31-16, Sat Sep 26

Next: William & Mary lost to Duke 62-7, Sat Sep 26

How it swung

The turning point: James 5-yd TD run, Fordham leads 14-0 (Q1, 1:02). Fordham went from 33% to 56% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Fordham a 12% chance, and the closing betting line (Fordham was a 15.5-point underdog) put it at 11%.

TargetingQ3 2:44
FinalFordham 52-27 William & MaryFordham wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4FordhamLowest 7%Won52-2712+23−14ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4FordhamLowest 7%Won52-2712ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4FordhamLowest 0%High 93%Lost27-5212−23+15ScoresTargeting
50%10%25%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4FordhamLowest 0%High 93%Lost27-5212ScoresTargeting

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:02James 5-yd TD run, Fordham leads 14-0Fordham 33% → 56% (+23)
  2. 2Q2 14:09King 67-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-7Fordham 70% → 56% (−14)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q1 1:02James 5-yd TD run, Fordham leads 14-0William & Mary 67% → 44% (−23)
  2. 2Q2 14:09King 67-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-7William & Mary 30% → 45% (+15)
Fordham’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (William & Mary -15.5), at 11% for Fordham (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.

Every drive

Fordham scored on 8 of its 12 drives; William & Mary on 4 of its 11.

Fordham’s drives are teal, William & Mary’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Fordham: Punt, from 75 yards out to 69PuntWilliam & Mary: Turned over on downs, from 63 yards out to 16DownsFordham: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Turned over on downs, from 65 yards out to 71DownsFordham: Touchdown, from 29 yards out to 0TouchdownFordham: Touchdown, from 65 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2William & Mary: Touchdown, from 76 yards out to 0TouchdownFordham: Missed field goal, from 85 yards out to 25Missed FGWilliam & Mary: Missed field goal, from 75 yards out to 36Missed FGFordham: Touchdown, from 64 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: End of half, from 68 yards out to 53End of halfQ3William & Mary: Punt, from 64 yards out to 65PuntFordham: Field goal, from 72 yards out to 2Field goalWilliam & Mary: Touchdown, from 84 yards out to 0TouchdownFordham: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownQ4Fordham: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Fumble, from 75 yards out to 43FumbleFordham: Punt, from 57 yards out to 50PuntWilliam & Mary: Punt, from 80 yards out to 88PuntFordham: Touchdown, from 58 yards out to 0TouchdownWilliam & Mary: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownFordham: End of game, from 44 yards out to 46End of game

From William & Mary’s side

William & Mary’s best moment: King 67-yd TD run, cuts it to 21-7 (Q2 14:09). It lifted William & Mary’s win chance by 15 points.

The winner fell to 7%.

Box score

Fordham 52, William & Mary 27

Fordham covered +15.5 by 40.5. The total, 79, went over 51.5.

Fordham leaders

  • Passing Gunnar Smith 12 of 21, 141 yds, 3 TD
  • Rushing Yohan-Li Louis 15 for 203 yds, 1 TD; Jamell James 17 for 163 yds, 3 TD
  • Receiving Ricky Gonzalez II 2 for 41 yds; Nodin Tracy 3 for 35 yds, 1 TD

William & Mary leaders

  • Passing Winston Watkins 19 of 26, 286 yds, 2 TD
  • Rushing Andrew King 16 for 122 yds, 1 TD; Josh Miller 9 for 41 yds
  • Receiving Kai Austin 6 for 81 yds, 1 TD; Luke Vanantwerp 5 for 80 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Fordham · 0-3

Rated 244th in our preseason ratings, 253rd now.

Three straight losses.

L 7-45 @ Coastal Carolina #186 of 668

lost by 38 as a 36.5-point underdog

Fordham lost 7-45 at Coastal Carolina. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 2%.

L 0-38 @ North Dakota State #80 of 668

lost by 38 as a 41.5-point underdog

Fordham lost 0-38 at North Dakota State. Chance to win started at 1%, low under 1%, high 1%.

L 14-24 vs Colgate #208 of 668

lost by 10 as an 8.5-point underdog

Fordham lost 14-24 vs Colgate. Chance to win started at 37%, low 3%, high 45%.

Last three games

William & Mary · 2-1

Rated 183rd in our preseason ratings, 183rd now.

2-1 in its last three, including a 3-point win over Villanova as a 12.5-point underdog.

L 20-44 @ Lehigh #133 of 668

lost by 24 as a 13.5-point underdog

William & Mary lost 20-44 at Lehigh. Chance to win started at 15%, low under 1%, high 15%.

W 22-15 vs Delaware State #187 of 668

won by 7 as a 9.5-point favorite

William & Mary won 22-15 vs Delaware State. Chance to win started at 81%, low 80%, high better than 99%.

W 35-32 @ Villanova #146 of 668

won by 3 as a 12.5-point underdog

William & Mary won 35-32 at Villanova. Chance to win started at 13%, low 2%, high better than 99%.

Week by week

William & Mary

Wk 1: W 35-32 at Villanova▲3VillanovaWk 1: W 22-15 vs Delaware State▲7Delaware StateWk 2: L 20-44 at Lehigh▼24Lehigh
  • Wk 1Wat Villanova35-32
  • Wk 1Wvs Delaware State22-15
  • Wk 2Lat Lehigh20-44

Fordham

Wk 1: L 14-24 vs Colgate▼10ColgateWk 1: L 0-38 at North Dakota State▼38North Dakota St.Wk 2: L 7-45 at Coastal Carolina▼38Coastal Carolina
  • Wk 1Lvs Colgate14-24
  • Wk 1Lat North Dakota State0-38
  • Wk 2Lat Coastal Carolina7-45

Power rating by week

William & Mary is rated 3.7 points ahead as of week 2. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-7-10-12Wk 0Wk 1Wk 2William & MaryFordham

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line agree on William & Mary’s chances here.

50-50Model 88% · Line 89%FordhamWilliam & Mary

William & Mary favored by 15.5 · Total 51.5

How games like this usually go

William & Mary by 15.5, on the usual path until Q1 9:44

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 251 games since 2025 with a favorite of 14.5 to 21.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 4 points toward Fordham.

opened −19.5now −15.5

Spread: −19.5 → −15.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Home field

William & Mary is worth +9.1 points (±9.9) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top tenth of FBS, 99th percentile.

33% at home, 9% on the road against FBS opponents (1-2 home, 1-10 away).

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +1.1 at home vs. away over 55 games — inside the ±8.5 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.

Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 290 miles to get here.

Where next

Conference standings

Place in the conference, then conference record.