William & Mary upsets Villanova 35-32
Team pages: William & Mary · Villanova
William & Mary beat Villanova 35-32 as a 12.5-point underdog, after its win chance fell to 2%. Share this game
Winners have been down to 2% or less in about 1 of every 100 games since 2018.
How it swung
The turning point: Lipinski 45-yd field goal, William & Mary goes ahead 35-32 (Q4, 0:00). William & Mary went from 31% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave William & Mary a 32% chance, and the closing betting line (William & Mary was a 12.5-point underdog) put it at 16%.
William & Mary 35-32 Villanova
William & Mary wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Villanova 32-35 William & MaryVillanova lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:39FumbleMace 0-yd run, fumblesWilliam & Mary 21% → 44% (+23)
- 2Q4 6:17InterceptionWatkins intercepted by Tyson at the Villanova 32, returned 36 yardsWilliam & Mary 64% → 38% (−26)
- 3Q4 3:47McQuaide 8-yd TD pass to Binkowski, two-point try good, Villanova goes ahead 25-22William & Mary 39% → 19% (−20)
- 4Q4 0:00Lipinski 45-yd field goal, William & Mary goes ahead 35-32William & Mary 31% → 100% (+69)
The four plays that swung it
- 1Q4 14:39FumbleMace 0-yd run, fumblesVillanova 79% → 56% (−23)
- 2Q4 6:17InterceptionWatkins intercepted by Tyson at the Villanova 32, returned 36 yardsVillanova 36% → 62% (+26)
- 3Q4 3:47McQuaide 8-yd TD pass to Binkowski, two-point try good, Villanova goes ahead 25-22Villanova 61% → 81% (+20)
- 4Q4 0:00Lipinski 45-yd field goal, William & Mary goes ahead 35-32Villanova 69% → 0% (−69)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Villanova -12.5), at 13% for William & Mary (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
William & Mary scored on 8 of its 14 drives; Villanova on 5 of its 13.
William & Mary’s drives are teal, Villanova’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Villanova’s side
Villanova’s best moment: Watkins intercepted by Tyson at the Villanova 32, returned 36 yards (Q4 6:17). It lifted Villanova’s win chance by 26 points.
Where fans got loudest
It came down to the finish, and so did the noise.
- early
- middle
- late
- final stretch
How we know
We look at when the most different fans were posting during the game thread, then name the part of the game it falls in. Only threads with a clear peak and enough fans get a word.
5 lead changes. The winner was given almost no chance at its low point.
Box score
William & Mary 35, Villanova 32
William & Mary covered +12.5 by 15.5. The total, 67, went over 47.5.
William & Mary leaders
- Passing Winston Watkins 19 of 33, 254 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Winston Watkins 21 for 72 yds, 1 TD; Andrew King 10 for 45 yds
- Receiving Kai Austin 4 for 76 yds, 1 TD; Khylil Johnson 4 for 75 yds
Villanova leaders
- Passing Pat McQuaide 17 of 30, 270 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
- Rushing Isaiah Ragland 14 for 94 yds, 2 TD; Ja'briel Mace 11 for 57 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Jake Hilton 4 for 132 yds; Brandon Binkowski 4 for 56 yds, 1 TD
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games · 2025 season
William & Mary · 7-5
Rated 183rd in our preseason ratings.
L 21-28 vs Richmond #186 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 55-14 @ Hampton #269 of 667
won by 41 as an 18.5-point favorite
W 30-27 @ Campbell #234 of 667
won by 3 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 37-7 vs UAlbany #251 of 667
won by 30 as a 19-point favorite
L 24-34 @ New Hampshire #171 of 667
lost by 10 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 26-21 vs Elon #149 of 667
won by 5 as a 1.5-point underdog
W 38-34 vs North Carolina A&T #255 of 667
won by 4 as a 20.5-point favorite
L 24-31 @ Villanova #157 of 667
lost by 7 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 34-7 vs Charleston Southern #243 of 667
won by 27 as an 11.5-point favorite
L 16-55 @ VirginiaTop 25 #53 of 667
lost by 39 as a 29.5-point underdog
W 28-27 vs Maine #184 of 667
won by 1 as a 7-point favorite
L 21-23 @ Furman #217 of 667
lost by 2 as a 2.5-point underdog
Last three games · 2025 season
Villanova · 12-3
Rated 137th in our preseason ratings.
L 14-30 vs Illinois State #82 of 667
lost by 16 as a 1.5-point favorite
W 26-21 @ Tarleton State #70 of 667
won by 5 as a 14.5-point underdog
W 14-7 @ Lehigh #92 of 667
W 52-7 vs Harvard #154 of 667
won by 45 as a 2-point underdog
W 34-10 vs Sacred Heart #206 of 667
won by 24 as a 16-point favorite
W 30-27 vs Stony Brook #167 of 667
won by 3 as a 10.5-point favorite
W 28-10 @ Towson #188 of 667
won by 18 as a 3.5-point favorite
W 29-16 vs UAlbany #240 of 667
won by 13 as a 31.5-point favorite
W 56-14 vs Hampton #260 of 667
won by 42 as a 24.5-point favorite
W 29-21 @ Elon #149 of 667
won by 8 as a 6.5-point favorite
W 37-7 @ New Hampshire #194 of 667
won by 30 as a 5.5-point favorite
W 31-24 vs William & Mary #171 of 667
won by 7 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 33-51 @ Monmouth #145 of 667
lost by 18 as a 3.5-point underdog
L 6-52 @ Penn StateTop 25 #8 of 667
lost by 46 as a 47.5-point underdog
W 24-17 vs Colgate #250 of 667
won by 7 as a 20-point favorite
The series
William & Mary leads the series 12-11
23 meetings since 1966 · Villanova won the last meeting
- 2025Villanova 31-24
- 2022William & Mary 45-12
- 2021William & Mary 31-18
- 2019Villanova 35-28
- 2018William & Mary 24-17
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Villanova’s chances here.
Villanova favored by 12.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Villanova by 12.5, on the usual path until 0:22 left in the fourth
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 385 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 1 point toward Villanova.
The total fell 3 points.
Spread: −11.5 → −12.5 · Total: 50.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Villanova is worth +6.3 points (±12.8) more at home than on the road since 2018 — top third of FBS, 85th percentile.
75% at home, 42% on the road against FBS opponents (3-1 home, 5-7 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +0.2 at home vs. away over 59 games — inside the ±8.2 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 205 miles to get here.