Ivy Harvard

Record6-1through 7 games
Nextvs ColumbiaSat Nov 7 · 1 pm ET

The rest of the season

Every game left is at least 75%

Win out 65% · expect 2.6 of 3 more wins

Harvard's chance to win each game left, from our model: Columbia 96%, Pennsylvania 89%, Yale 76%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.

LeadersPassing Charlie Smith 1,724 · Rushing Xaviah Bascon 280 · Receiving Nate Bailey 490 All player stats

The model#26 among FCS teams

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9

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Schedule and results

Harvard · 2026 schedule and results6-1Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 50% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.
WkDateOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
3Sep 19@New HampshireW 31-7Harvard won 31-7 at New Hampshire. Chance to win started at 81%, low 67%, high better than 99%.1-00-0Pass Smith 71 · Rush Allen 62 · Rec Reid 22
4Sep 25@BrownW 14-10Harvard won 14-10 at Brown. Chance to win started at 77%, low 73%, high 97%.2-01-0Pass Smith 205 · Rush Bascon 45 · Rec Bailey 80
5Oct 3ColgateW 20-17Harvard won 20-17 vs Colgate. Chance to win started at 69%, low 6%, high better than 99%.3-01-0Pass Smith 369 · Rush Bascon 51 · Rec Bailey 197
6Oct 10@CornellW 41-29Harvard won 41-29 at Cornell. Chance to win started at 64%, low 32%, high better than 99%.4-02-0Pass Smith 275 · Rush Bascon 59 · Rec Bailey 64
7Oct 17Holy CrossW 30-7Harvard won 30-7 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 88%, low 85%, high better than 99%.5-02-0Pass Smith 297 · Rush Calhoun 43 · Rec Shoemaker 83
8Oct 24PrincetonW 35-7Harvard won 35-7 vs Princeton. Chance to win started at 82%, low 77%, high better than 99%.6-03-0Pass Smith 230 · Rush Gordon 67 · Rec Moe 53
9Oct 30@DartmouthL 14-24Harvard lost 14-24 at Dartmouth. Chance to win started at 65%, low under 1%, high 70%.6-13-1Pass Smith 277 · Rush Gordon 77 · Rec Tattersall 94
10Nov 7Columbia1 pm ET96% to win
11Nov 14@Pennsylvania1 pm ET89% to win
12Nov 21Yale (N)3:30 pm ET · ESPNU76% to win
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Harvard, through 7 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 30@DartmouthL 14-24———−0.18152.3%0.91Season-low EPA/play
Oct 24PrincetonW 35-7———+0.37850.0%1.18Season-high EPA/play
Oct 17Holy CrossW 30-7———+0.31852.1%1.19
Oct 10@CornellW 41-29———+0.29448.4%1.31
Oct 3ColgateW 20-17———+0.12945.3%1.38Most explosive
Sep 25@BrownW 14-10———−0.03545.3%0.68One-score win
Sep 19@New HampshireW 31-7———−0.07730.3%1.14Best defensive stand
Season average (7 games)——+0.11846.3%1.11

Ahead

The forecast

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Sat Nov 7Next: Columbiavs Columbia · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Harvard has won four of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and lost the last one.

Streak L1Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3

Range of outcomes · Harvard · 2026

Harvard’s most common regular-season record in our model is 9-1. Most outcomes (96%) land from 8-2 to 9-1.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

7 wins 4%; 8 wins 31%; 9 wins 65%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor8-4Competitive, but outside the at-large field.
Base9-3Conference title contender. Playoff bid realistic.
Ceiling11-1Conference title + deep playoff run.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 7 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.

More in this tab

Worth watchingGames average 41 combined points, even games

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-1

Game feel41even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 8 in the Ivy
Heart rate2-0some dramain one-score games (2 of 7)6th most one-score games of 8 in the Ivy
Margin+12.0comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 8 in the Ivy
Big plays1.11grind it outexplosiveness (IsoPPP)8th most explosive of 8 in the Ivy
Home crowd10,192avg attendance1st biggest crowds of 8 in the Ivy

Measured from 7 games · ranks are among Ivy teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Harvard is 6-1 and hosts Columbia next.

Standard GapEldest Ivy (1636), Percy Haughton's golden era (1908–1916) and Tim…
Read the full program story ↓
Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Harvard is 6-1 and hosts Columbia next.

RosterWho's gone, who's back, who replaces them.

Roster reload: Harvard

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning ProductionNAContinuity signal unavailable
Portal Additions0No clear position repair point
Portal Losses5Primary pressure: EDGE
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting ReloadNARecruiting class signal unavailable
QBin 0out 1 - Jaden Craig3.70Downgrade
IOLin 0out 1 - Aidan Kilstrom3.50Downgrade
EDGEin 0out 1 - Alex DeGrieck3.30Downgrade
Sin 0out 1 - Ty Bartrum3.30Downgrade
OTin 0out 1 - Derek Osman3.20Downgrade
FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Harvard

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site