Dartmouth upsets Harvard 24-14

Team pages: Harvard · Dartmouth

Harvard6-114
Dartmouth4-324Final
Fri, Oct 30 · Memorial Field, Hanover, N.H. · Crowd 4,074ESPNU

Dartmouth beat Harvard 24-14 as a 9.5-point underdog.

We had Harvard favored. Dartmouth won.

Next: Harvard vs Columbia, Sat Nov 7 · 1:00 PM ET

Next: Dartmouth at Princeton, Sat Nov 7 · 12:00 PM ET

How it swung

The turning point: Saunier 2-yd TD pass to Elder, Dartmouth leads 14-0 (Q2, 10:57). Dartmouth went from 56% to 81% to win.

Before kickoff, our ratings gave Dartmouth a 13% chance, and the closing betting line (Dartmouth was a 9.5-point underdog) put it at 22%.

FinalDartmouth 24-14 HarvardDartmouth wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q459% at halfDartmouthHarvardLowest 30%Won24-1412+25−22Scores
50%75%90%Q1Q2Q3Q459% at halfDartmouthHarvardLowest 30%Won24-1412Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q441% at halfHarvardDartmouthHigh 70%Lost14-2412−25+22Scores
50%10%25%Q1Q2Q3Q441% at halfHarvardDartmouthHigh 70%Lost14-2412Scores

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 10:574th and 2Saunier 2-yd TD pass to Elder, Dartmouth leads 14-0Dartmouth 56% → 81% (+25)
  2. 2Q2 1:44Smith 38-yd TD pass to Tattersall, cuts it to 21-14Dartmouth 85% → 63% (−22)

The two plays that swung it

  1. 1Q2 10:574th and 2Saunier 2-yd TD pass to Elder, Dartmouth leads 14-0Harvard 44% → 19% (−25)
  2. 2Q2 1:44Smith 38-yd TD pass to Tattersall, cuts it to 21-14Harvard 15% → 37% (+22)
Dartmouth’s chance to win after every play.
How to read this chartStarts from the pregame line (Harvard -9.5), at 35% for Dartmouth (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.

Every drive

Dartmouth scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Harvard on 2 of its 11.

Dartmouth’s drives are teal, Harvard’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.

own goalgoal lineQ1Dartmouth: Punt, from 75 yards out to 54PuntHarvard: Interception, from 79 yards out to 79InterceptionDartmouth: Touchdown, from 18 yards out to 0TouchdownHarvard: Interception, from 84 yards out to 4InterceptionDartmouth: Touchdown, from 61 yards out to 0TouchdownQ2Harvard: Punt, from 75 yards out to 45PuntDartmouth: Interception, from 65 yards out to 63InterceptionHarvard: Touchdown, from 35 yards out to 0TouchdownDartmouth: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownHarvard: Touchdown, from 75 yards out to 0TouchdownDartmouth: End of half, from 75 yards out to 70End of halfQ3Harvard: Interception, from 75 yards out to 55InterceptionDartmouth: Interception, from 48 yards out to 38InterceptionHarvard: Missed field goal, from 98 yards out to 15Missed FGDartmouth: Interception, from 80 yards out to 42InterceptionHarvard: Uncategorized, from 58 yards out to 5UncategorizedDartmouth: Punt, from 98 yards out to 93PuntQ4Harvard: Turned over on downs, from 38 yards out to 29DownsDartmouth: Field goal, from 71 yards out to 18Field goalHarvard: Interception, from 75 yards out to 61InterceptionDartmouth: Turned over on downs, from 50 yards out to 35DownsHarvard: Uncategorized, from 65 yards out to 60Uncategorized

From Harvard’s side

Harvard’s best moment: Smith 38-yd TD pass to Tattersall, cuts it to 21-14 (Q2 1:44). It lifted Harvard’s win chance by 22 points.

Too close to call on 56% of plays.

Box score

Dartmouth 24, Harvard 14

Dartmouth covered +9.5 by 19.5. The total, 38, stayed under 44.5.

Harvard leaders

  • Passing Charlie Smith 23 of 37, 277 yds, 2 TD, 5 INT
  • Rushing DJ Gordon 14 for 77 yds; Xaviah Bascon 6 for 46 yds
  • Receiving Ryan Tattersall 6 for 94 yds, 1 TD; Henry Shoemaker 5 for 63 yds

Dartmouth leaders

  • Passing Grayson Saunier 5 of 12, 42 yds, 2 TD, 3 INT
  • Rushing Grayson Saunier 20 for 109 yds, 1 TD; Jacob Henry 14 for 53 yds
  • Receiving Nick Lemon 2 for 30 yds, 1 TD; James Elliott 1 for 11 yds

Before kickoff

Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.

Recent games

Last three games

Harvard · 6-0

Rated 195th in our preseason ratings, 134th now, up 61 spots.

Three straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.

W 35-7 vs Princeton No. 184 of 668 teams

won by 28 as a 10.5-point favorite

Harvard won 35-7 vs Princeton. Chance to win started at 82%, low 77%, high better than 99%.

W 30-7 vs Holy Cross No. 213 of 668 teams

won by 23 as a 15.5-point favorite

Harvard won 30-7 vs Holy Cross. Chance to win started at 88%, low 85%, high better than 99%.

W 41-29 @ Cornell No. 213 of 668 teams

won by 12 as a 7-point favorite

Harvard won 41-29 at Cornell. Chance to win started at 64%, low 32%, high better than 99%.

W 20-17 vs Colgate No. 155 of 668 teams

won by 3 as a 4.5-point favorite

Harvard won 20-17 vs Colgate. Chance to win started at 69%, low 6%, high better than 99%.

W 14-10 @ Brown No. 229 of 668 teams

won by 4 as a 13.5-point favorite

Harvard won 14-10 at Brown. Chance to win started at 77%, low 73%, high 97%.

W 31-7 @ New Hampshire No. 225 of 668 teams

won by 24 as a 14.5-point favorite

Harvard won 31-7 at New Hampshire. Chance to win started at 81%, low 67%, high better than 99%.

Last three games

Dartmouth · 3-3

Rated 240th in our preseason ratings, 205th now, up 35 spots.

2-1 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.

W 38-18 @ Columbia No. 233 of 668 teams

won by 20 as a 1.5-point favorite

Dartmouth won 38-18 at Columbia. Chance to win started at 47%, low 46%, high better than 99%.

W 27-21 vs Merrimack No. 232 of 668 teams

won by 6 as a 10.5-point favorite

Dartmouth won 27-21 vs Merrimack. Chance to win started at 87%, low 35%, high better than 99%.

L 7-28 @ Yale No. 182 of 668 teams

lost by 21 as a 7-point underdog

Dartmouth lost 7-28 at Yale. Chance to win started at 20%, low under 1%, high 22%.

W 14-10 vs Pennsylvania No. 233 of 668 teams

won by 4 as an 8.5-point favorite

Dartmouth won 14-10 vs Pennsylvania. Chance to win started at 80%, low 55%, high better than 99%.

L 28-31 vs Monmouth No. 166 of 668 teams

lost by 3 as a 3-point favorite

Dartmouth lost 28-31 vs Monmouth. Chance to win started at 64%, low under 1%, high 92%.

L 20-24 @ Lehigh No. 138 of 668 teams

lost by 4 as a 17.5-point underdog

Dartmouth lost 20-24 at Lehigh. Chance to win started at 8%, low 3%, high 31%.

Week by week

Dartmouth

Wk 4: L 28-31 vs Monmouth▼3MonmouthWk 5: W 14-10 vs Pennsylvania▲4Pennsylv…Wk 6: L 7-28 at Yale▼21YaleWk 7: W 27-21 vs Merrimack▲6MerrimackWk 8: W 38-18 at Columbia▲20Columbia
  • Wk 4Lvs Monmouth28-31
  • Wk 5Wvs Pennsylvania14-10
  • Wk 6Lat Yale7-28
  • Wk 7Wvs Merrimack27-21
  • Wk 8Wat Columbia38-18

Harvard

Wk 4: W 14-10 at Brown▲4BrownWk 5: W 20-17 vs Colgate▲3ColgateWk 6: W 41-29 at Cornell▲12CornellWk 7: W 30-7 vs Holy Cross▲23Holy Cro…Wk 8: W 35-7 vs Princeton▲28Princeton
  • Wk 4Wat Brown14-10
  • Wk 5Wvs Colgate20-17
  • Wk 6Wat Cornell41-29
  • Wk 7Wvs Holy Cross30-7
  • Wk 8Wvs Princeton35-7

Power rating by week

Harvard is rated 5.2 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.

-3-8-12Wk 0Wk 4Wk 8DartmouthHarvard

The series

Harvard leads the series 63-40-4

107 meetings since 1882 · Harvard has won the last 4

Dartmouth wonHarvard won1882: Harvard by 81884: Harvard by 291886: Harvard by 701888: Harvard by 741889: Harvard by 381890: Harvard by 431890: Harvard by 641891: Harvard by 161892: Harvard by 481893: Harvard by 161893: Harvard by 361894: Harvard by 221895: Harvard by 41897: Harvard by 131898: Harvard by 211899: Harvard by 111901: Harvard by 151902: Harvard by 101903: Dartmouth by 111904: tie1905: tie1906: Harvard by 131907: Dartmouth by 221908: Harvard by 61909: Harvard by 91910: Harvard by 181911: Harvard by 21912: Harvard by 31922: Harvard by 91923: Dartmouth by 161924: Dartmouth by 61925: Dartmouth by 231926: Harvard by 41927: Dartmouth by 241928: Harvard by 121929: Dartmouth by 271930: Dartmouth by 51931: Harvard by 11932: Harvard by 31933: tie1934: Dartmouth by 101935: Dartmouth by 81936: Dartmouth by 191937: Dartmouth by 181938: Dartmouth by 61939: Dartmouth by 161940: Dartmouth by 11941: Harvard by 71942: Dartmouth by 121946: Harvard by 141947: Dartmouth by 11948: Dartmouth by 71949: Dartmouth by 141950: Dartmouth by 201951: Dartmouth by 61952: Harvard by 71953: Harvard by 61954: Dartmouth by 61955: Dartmouth by 51956: Harvard by 71957: Dartmouth by 261958: Harvard by 81959: Dartmouth by 91960: Harvard by 31961: Harvard by 61962: Dartmouth by 181963: Harvard by 41964: Dartmouth by 481965: Dartmouth by 141966: Harvard by 51967: Dartmouth by 21968: Harvard by 151969: Dartmouth by 141970: Dartmouth by 231971: Dartmouth by 31972: tie1973: Dartmouth by 61974: Harvard by 21975: Harvard by 141976: Harvard by 71977: Harvard by 61978: Harvard by 51979: Dartmouth by 31980: Dartmouth by 181981: Dartmouth by 142003: Dartmouth by 142004: Harvard by 12005: Harvard by 282006: Harvard by 282007: Harvard by 72008: Harvard by 282009: Harvard by 212010: Harvard by 162011: Harvard by 312012: Harvard by 172013: Harvard by 32014: Harvard by 112015: Harvard by 12016: Harvard by 22017: Harvard by 32018: Dartmouth by 72019: Dartmouth by 32021: Dartmouth by 32022: Harvard by 152023: Harvard by 82024: Harvard by 42025: Harvard by 2118822025
  • 2025Harvard 31-10
  • 2024Harvard 31-27
  • 2023Harvard 17-9
  • 2022Harvard 28-13
  • 2021Dartmouth 20-17

Line, fans and home field

The betting line, and the fans

Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Dartmouth’s chances here.

50-50Model · 13%Line · 22%HarvardDartmouth

Harvard favored by 9.5 · Total 44.5

How games like this usually go

Harvard by 9.5, on the usual path until Q1 15:00

50%90%Q1Q2Q3Q450%90%Q1Q2Q3Q4

Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game

The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 417 games since 2025 with a favorite of 7.5 to 14.5 points.

The market

The spread moved 0.5 points toward Dartmouth.

opened +10now +9.5

The total rose 2 points.

opened 42.5now 44.5

Spread: +10 → +9.5 · Total: 42.5 → 44.5

The books’ cut: 5.3%, the margin built into the odds

Where next

Conference standings

Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.