The rest of the season
Three real tests left: No. 14 Wake Forest <1%, Monmouth 10%, Sacred Heart 52%
Win out <1% · expect 0.6 of 3 more wins
Merrimack Warriors's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wake Forest <1%, Monmouth 10%, Sacred Heart 52%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing AJ Hairston 1,362 · Rushing Matthias Latham 626 · Receiving Austin Palmer 417 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | Rhode Island | L 7-34 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 145 · Rush McElroy 45 · Rec Goulet 67 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | @Delaware | L 7-42 73 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Meehan 121 · Rush Mulbah 41 · Rec Latham 36 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Maine | W 23-14 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 73 · Rush Latham 72 · Rec Goulet 26 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Tarleton State | L 20-45 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 214 · Rush Latham 86 · Rec Palmer 95 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | New Haven | W 17-10 | 2-3 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 85 · Rush Latham 176 · Rec Latham 40 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Yale | L 24-41 | 2-4 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 192 · Rush Hairston 69 · Rec Massey 89 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Dartmouth | L 21-27 | 2-5 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 174 · Rush Latham 96 · Rec Palmer 49 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | New Hampshire | W 24-17 | 3-5 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 205 · Rush Latham 105 · Rec Palmer 78 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Wagner | W 19-14 | 4-5 | 0-0 | Pass Hairston 199 · Rush Hairston 55 · Rec Palmer 101 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Wake Forest | 3:30 pm ET · ACC Network<1% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Monmouth | 12 pm ET10% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Sacred Heart | 12 pm ET52% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Merrimack Warriors, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Wagner | W 19-14 | — | — | — | +0.059 | 34.8% | 1.34 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | New Hampshire | W 24-17 | — | — | — | +0.183 | 47.0% | 0.99 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | @Dartmouth | L 21-27 | — | — | — | −0.018 | 48.5% | 0.69 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | @Yale | L 24-41 | — | — | — | −0.071 | 30.8% | 1.05 | |
| Sep 26 | New Haven | W 17-10 | — | — | — | +0.182 | 41.5% | 1.26 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @Tarleton State | L 20-45 | — | — | — | +0.200 | 39.4% | 1.43 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @Maine | W 23-14 | — | — | — | −0.052 | 38.7% | 0.86 | Best defensive stand |
| Sep 3 | @Delaware | L 7-42 | — | — | — | −0.123 | 25.0% | 1.44 | Most explosive |
| Aug 28 | Rhode Island | L 7-34 | — | — | — | −0.144 | 42.1% | 1.01 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.024 | 38.6% | 1.12 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Merrimack Warriors · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 43%; 5 wins 51%; 6 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
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What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among FCS Independents teams the same season
Merrimack football is a program that has played in five different conferences in 27 years, is now building as an FCS Independent, and proved it can beat ranked teams (Holy Cross, 2021) — a scrappy program proving it belongs every season.
Merrimack football is a program that has played in five different conferences in 27 years, is now building as an FCS Independent, and proved it can beat ranked teams (Holy Cross, 2021) — a scrappy program proving it belongs every season.
Range of outcomes · Merrimack Warriors · 2026