The rest of the season
One real test left: Campbell 44%
Win out 36% · expect 2.2 of 3 more wins
Monmouth's chance to win each game left, from our model: North Carolina A&T 90%, Merrimack 90%, Campbell 44%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Frankie Weaver 1,930 · Rushing Kenny Smith 922 · Receiving Tra Neal 630 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Tennessee Tech | L 14-38 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Weaver 179 · Rush Jennings 78 · Rec Genross 39 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Sacred Heart | W 31-24 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass Weaver 237 · Rush Jennings 52 · Rec Nelson 89 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Western Michigan | L 14-49 57 | 1-2 | 1-0 | Pass Weaver 273 · Rush Jennings 87 · Rec Neal 106 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @UAlbany | W 28-20 | 2-2 | 2-0 | Pass Weaver 200 · Rush Smith 86 · Rec Neal 138 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Dartmouth | W 31-28 | 3-2 | 2-0 | Pass Weaver 313 · Rush Smith 93 · Rec Harrison 79 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Towson | W 41-40 | 4-2 | 3-0 | Pass Weaver 218 · Rush Jennings 92 · Rec Nelson 100 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @New Hampshire | W 42-21 | 5-2 | 4-0 | Pass Weaver 195 · Rush Smith 175 · Rec Neal 82 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Hampton | W 49-13 | 6-2 | 5-0 | Pass Weaver 234 · Rush Smith 163 · Rec Nelson 60 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Bryant | W 34-21 | 7-2 | 6-0 | Pass Weaver 81 · Rush Jennings 175 · Rec Neal 36 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | North Carolina A&T | 12 pm ET90% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Merrimack | 12 pm ET90% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Campbell | 1 pm ET44% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Monmouth, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Bryant | W 34-21 | — | — | — | +0.161 | 48.5% | 1.19 | |
| Oct 24 | @Hampton | W 49-13 | — | — | — | +0.331 | 47.7% | 1.36 | Blowout win |
| Oct 17 | @New Hampshire | W 42-21 | — | — | — | +0.240 | 49.4% | 1.12 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | Towson | W 41-40 | — | — | — | +0.322 | 60.6% | 0.90 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @Dartmouth | W 31-28 | — | — | — | +0.286 | 52.9% | 0.94 | One-score win |
| Sep 19 | @UAlbany | W 28-20 | — | — | — | +0.150 | 37.0% | 1.53 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @Western Michigan | L 14-49 | — | — | — | −0.107 | 45.7% | 0.90 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Sacred Heart | W 31-24 | — | — | — | +0.352 | 49.2% | 1.17 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | @Tennessee Tech | L 14-38 | — | — | — | +0.128 | 40.0% | 1.00 | |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | +0.207 | 47.9% | 1.12 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
7-3 over the last 10, and won the last six.
Range of outcomes · Monmouth · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
8 wins 10%; 9 wins 53%; 10 wins 36%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 7-2
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among Coastal Athletic teams the same season
Monmouth is the program Kevin Callahan built from nothing over 33 years into a 197-win institution — and 2025 was his last season, leaving the Hawks to carry a legend's legacy into an uncertain new era.
Monmouth is the program Kevin Callahan built from nothing over 33 years into a 197-win institution — and 2025 was his last season, leaving the Hawks to carry a legend's legacy into an uncertain new era.
Range of outcomes · Monmouth · 2026