The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Long Island University 37%, Mercyhurst 41%, Wagner 59%
Win out 9% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
New Haven's chance to win each game left, from our model: Long Island University 37%, Wagner 59%, Mercyhurst 41%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing A.J. Duffy 756 · Rushing Zaon Laney 473 · Receiving Tommy Troy 242 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 28 | Marist | W 22-21 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Duffy 311 · Rush Laney 45 · Rec Glaudin 99 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Stonehill | L 3-21 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Duffy 173 · Rush Laney 114 · Rec Chandler 49 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @South Dakota State | L 14-57 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Duffy 48 · Rush Laney 54 · Rec Glaudin 27 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Brown | L 10-17 | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Duffy 215 · Rush Laney 37 · Rec Grguric 55 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Merrimack | L 10-17 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Tripptree 119 · Rush Laney 21 · Rec Burleson II 40 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Austin Peay | L 17-42 | 1-5 | 0-1 | Pass Boyce 227 · Rush Laney 90 · Rec Reed 75 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Robert Morris | W 26-15 | 2-5 | 1-1 | Pass Tripptree 44 · Rush Laney 75 · Rec Turnage 22 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Central Connecticut | L 20-42 | 2-6 | 1-2 | Pass Tripptree 304 · Rush Jackson 19 · Rec Rose Jr. 91 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Duquesne | L 14-41 | 2-7 | 1-3 | Pass Tripptree 196 · Rush Laney 27 · Rec Reed 78 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Long Island University | 12 pm ET · NEC Front Row37% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Wagner | 12 pm ET59% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Mercyhurst | 12 pm ET41% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for New Haven, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Duquesne | L 14-41 | — | — | — | −0.197 | 36.2% | 1.24 | |
| Oct 24 | @Central Connecticut | L 20-42 | — | — | — | −0.154 | 39.7% | 1.23 | |
| Oct 17 | @Robert Morris | W 26-15 | — | — | — | −0.099 | 32.3% | 1.23 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 3 | @Austin Peay | L 17-42 | — | — | — | −0.008 | 33.8% | 1.23 | |
| Sep 26 | @Merrimack | L 10-17 | — | — | — | −0.292 | 21.6% | 1.05 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | Brown | L 10-17 | — | — | — | +0.013 | 35.1% | 0.96 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 12 | @South Dakota State | L 14-57 | — | — | — | −0.136 | 19.7% | 1.75 | Most explosive |
| Sep 5 | Stonehill | L 3-21 | — | — | — | −0.215 | 40.4% | 0.68 | Best success rate |
| Aug 28 | Marist | W 22-21 | — | — | — | −0.006 | 33.8% | 1.55 | One-score win |
| Season average (9 games) | — | — | −0.121 | 32.5% | 1.21 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
3-7 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
Range of outcomes · New Haven · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
2 wins 15%; 3 wins 41%; 4 wins 35%; 5 wins 9%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 2-7
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among NEC teams the same season
New Haven is the Chargers climbing into FCS for the first time — a Northeast Conference newcomer proving that the jump from D-II can be navigated with discipline and time.
New Haven is the Chargers climbing into FCS for the first time — a Northeast Conference newcomer proving that the jump from D-II can be navigated with discipline and time.
Range of outcomes · New Haven · 2026