The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Duquesne 22%, Stonehill 47%, Long Island University 56%
Win out 6% · expect 1.3 of 3 more wins
Robert Morris's chance to win each game left, from our model: Duquesne 22%, Stonehill 47%, Long Island University 56%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Carson Haggard 2,159 · Rushing Xavier Goulbourne 176 · Receiving Jaqai Carter 607 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Wagner | W 28-7 | 1-0 | 1-0 | Pass Haggard 206 · Rush Thomas 28 · Rec Combs 104 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | West Virginia State | W 29-9 | 2-0 | 1-0 | Pass Haggard 224 · Rush Fitzpatrick II 76 · Rec Combs 84 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @Akron | L 10-45 121 | 2-1 | 1-0 | Pass Haggard 179 · Rush Fitzpatrick II 11 · Rec Combs 119 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Buffalo | L 28-31 144 | 2-2 | 1-0 | Pass Haggard 163 · Rush Goulbourne 77 · Rec Jinks 42 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Norfolk State | W 33-31 | 3-2 | 1-0 | Pass Haggard 296 · Rush Whack 39 · Rec Carter 171 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Morgan State | L 27-28 | 3-3 | 1-0 | Pass Haggard 376 · Rush Whack 55 · Rec Schaerli 93 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | New Haven | L 15-26 | 3-4 | 1-1 | Pass Haggard 246 · Rush Williams 13 · Rec Carter 141 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Mercyhurst | W 28-14 | 4-4 | 2-1 | Pass Haggard 242 · Rush Thomas 35 · Rec Carter 86 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Central Connecticut | L 14-49 | 4-5 | 2-2 | Pass Haggard 227 · Rush Fitzpatrick II 3 · Rec Schaerli 88 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Duquesne | 12 pm ET · NEC Front Row22% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Stonehill | 12 pm ET47% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Long Island University | 12 pm ET56% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Robert Morris, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Central Connecticut | L 14-49 | — | — | — | −0.127 | 31.6% | 1.66 | Defense's roughest night |
| Oct 24 | Mercyhurst | W 28-14 | — | — | — | +0.133 | 33.9% | 1.50 | |
| Oct 17 | New Haven | L 15-26 | — | — | — | −0.437 | 21.2% | 2.02 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | @Morgan State | L 27-28 | — | — | — | +0.327 | 42.6% | 1.65 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | Norfolk State | W 33-31 | — | — | — | +0.214 | 41.7% | 1.43 | One-score win |
| Sep 26 | @Buffalo | L 28-31 | 316 | 0 | 20:45 | +0.003 | 29.1% | 1.80 | One-score loss |
| Sep 12 | @Akron | L 10-45 | 194 | 2 | 24:46 | −0.264 | 27.5% | 1.46 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 5 | West Virginia State | W 29-9 | — | — | — | +0.306 | 39.4% | 1.60 | |
| Aug 29 | @Wagner | W 28-7 | — | — | — | +0.139 | 29.9% | 1.84 | Best defensive stand |
| Season average (9 games) | 255 | 1.0 | +0.033 | 33.0% | 1.66 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last one.
Range of outcomes · Robert Morris · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 18%; 5 wins 44%; 6 wins 32%; 7 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among NEC teams the same season
Robert Morris is the Northeast Conference program fighting to reverse a difficult stretch — a storied colonial-era school looking to rebuild from a 3-9 season under established leadership.
Robert Morris is the Northeast Conference program fighting to reverse a difficult stretch — a storied colonial-era school looking to rebuild from a 3-9 season under established leadership.
Range of outcomes · Robert Morris · 2026