The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Central Connecticut 23%, Robert Morris 53%
Win out 11% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
Stonehill's chance to win each game left, from our model: Central Connecticut 23%, Robert Morris 53%, Wagner 88%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Jack O'Connell 1,704 · Rushing Aidan Garrett 457 · Receiving Cole Clarke 401 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Bryant | L 6-24 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass O'Connell 202 · Rush Eason 50 · Rec Turner 42 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @New Haven | W 21-3 | 1-1 | 1-0 | Pass O'Connell 192 · Rush Eason 82 · Rec Clarke 46 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @New Hampshire | L 35-42 | 1-2 | 1-0 | Pass O'Connell 380 · Rush O'Connell 53 · Rec Clarke 88 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Massachusetts | L 14-36 119 | 1-3 | 1-0 | Pass O'Connell 69 · Rush Eason 20 · Rec Corchado 41 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Ohio | L 7-35 109 | 1-4 | 1-0 | Pass O'Connell 117 · Rush King 8 · Rec Clarke 64 |
| 5 | Bye week | |||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | @Sacred Heart | W 28-7 | 2-4 | 1-0 | Pass O'Connell 134 · Rush Garrett 106 · Rec Wilson 46 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Duquesne | L 7-14 | 2-5 | 1-1 | Pass O'Connell 173 · Rush O'Connell 31 · Rec Clarke 53 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Long Island University | W 18-14 | 3-5 | 2-1 | Pass O'Connell 233 · Rush Garrett 84 · Rec Baker 103 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Mercyhurst | W 34-28 | 4-5 | 3-1 | Pass O'Connell 204 · Rush Garrett 113 · Rec Clarke 70 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Central Connecticut | 1 pm ET · NEC Front Row23% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Robert Morris | 12 pm ET53% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Wagner | 12 pm ET88% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Stonehill, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Mercyhurst | W 34-28 | — | — | — | +0.110 | 38.6% | 1.22 | One-score win |
| Oct 24 | @Long Island University | W 18-14 | — | — | — | −0.145 | 38.2% | 1.02 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 17 | Duquesne | L 7-14 | — | — | — | −0.304 | 33.8% | 1.05 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | @Sacred Heart | W 28-7 | — | — | — | +0.288 | 49.0% | 1.17 | Best success rate |
| Sep 26 | @Ohio | L 7-35 | 124 | 0 | 20:40 | −0.234 | 19.5% | 1.50 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | @Massachusetts | L 14-36 | 161 | 3 | 29:52 | −0.273 | 23.3% | 1.07 | |
| Sep 12 | @New Hampshire | L 35-42 | — | — | — | +0.315 | 41.7% | 1.43 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @New Haven | W 21-3 | — | — | — | +0.090 | 44.4% | 1.00 | |
| Aug 29 | Bryant | L 6-24 | — | — | — | +0.028 | 38.1% | 1.15 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 142 | 1.5 | −0.014 | 36.3% | 1.18 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Stonehill · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 4%; 5 wins 38%; 6 wins 47%; 7 wins 11%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among NEC teams the same season
Stonehill is the Skyhawks in their first year of FCS eligibility — overachieving in the Northeast Conference and proving the D-II powerhouse belongs at the FCS level.
Stonehill is the Skyhawks in their first year of FCS eligibility — overachieving in the Northeast Conference and proving the D-II powerhouse belongs at the FCS level.
Range of outcomes · Stonehill · 2026