The rest of the season
Two real tests left: Duquesne 13%, New Haven 59%
Win out 5% · expect 1.4 of 3 more wins
Mercyhurst University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Wagner 72%, Duquesne 13%, New Haven 59%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Alex Gevaudan 1,997 · Rushing Jameir Gamble 281 · Receiving Dylan Evans 480 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 27 | @Youngstown State | L 10-43 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Gevaudan 212 · Rush Gamble 36 · Rec Lewis 44 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @New Mexico State | L 14-51 123 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Gevaudan 147 · Rush Gamble 59 · Rec Dyke 60 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @New Mexico | L 7-70 125 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Wolter 111 · Rush Knox 17 · Rec Yancey 75 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Glenville State | W 49-20 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Gevaudan 179 · Rush Gamble 76 · Rec Evans 105 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Western Kentucky | L 7-52 132 | 1-4 | 0-0 | Pass Gevaudan 172 · Rush Gamble 58 · Rec Fincher 40 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Long Island University | L 24-27 | 1-5 | 0-1 | Pass Gevaudan 237 · Rush Gamble 35 · Rec Evans 66 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Central Connecticut | L 40-43 | 1-6 | 0-2 | Pass Gevaudan 409 · Rush Dyke 52 · Rec Evans 136 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Robert Morris | L 14-28 | 1-7 | 0-3 | Pass Gevaudan 297 · Rush Knox 95 · Rec Lattimore 84 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Stonehill | L 28-34 | 1-8 | 0-4 | Pass Gevaudan 344 · Rush Knox 31 · Rec Knox 113 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Wagner | 12 pm ET · NEC Front Row72% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Duquesne | 12 pm ET13% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | New Haven | 12 pm ET59% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Mercyhurst University, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Stonehill | L 28-34 | — | — | — | −0.111 | 43.4% | 1.29 | Best success rate |
| Oct 24 | @Robert Morris | L 14-28 | — | — | — | −0.216 | 35.4% | 1.48 | |
| Oct 17 | Central Connecticut | L 40-43 | — | — | — | +0.113 | 41.1% | 1.89 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 3 | @Long Island University | L 24-27 | — | — | — | −0.023 | 41.3% | 1.14 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Western Kentucky | L 7-52 | 264 | 0 | 31:27 | −0.109 | 30.4% | 1.34 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 19 | Glenville State | W 49-20 | — | — | — | +0.010 | 30.9% | 2.02 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | @New Mexico | L 7-70 | 155 | 6 | 26:27 | −0.400 | 19.6% | 1.64 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @New Mexico State | L 14-51 | 237 | 2 | 30:46 | −0.047 | 35.6% | 1.17 | Blowout loss |
| Aug 27 | @Youngstown State | L 10-43 | — | — | — | −0.093 | 30.2% | 1.36 | Blowout loss |
| Season average (9 games) | 219 | 2.7 | −0.097 | 34.2% | 1.48 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last five.
Range of outcomes · Mercyhurst University · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 10%; 2 wins 42%; 3 wins 43%; 4 wins 5%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-8
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among NEC teams the same season
Mercyhurst is the historic Erie institution climbing Division I—a program in Year 2 of the FCS transition, betting that new head coach Thomas Sydeski can stabilize the D1 culture and deliver sustained Northeast Conference competitiveness.
Mercyhurst is the historic Erie institution climbing Division I—a program in Year 2 of the FCS transition, betting that new head coach Thomas Sydeski can stabilize the D1 culture and deliver sustained Northeast Conference competitiveness.
Range of outcomes · Mercyhurst University · 2026