The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Stonehill 12%, Mercyhurst 28%, New Haven 41%
Win out 1% · expect 0.8 of 3 more wins
Wagner's chance to win each game left, from our model: Mercyhurst 28%, New Haven 41%, Stonehill 12%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Benjamin Newman 1,196 · Rushing Matt Morad 360 · Receiving Zion Fowler-El 242 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Robert Morris | L 7-28 | 0-1 | 0-1 | Pass Stevens 63 · Rush Morad 32 · Rec Fowler-El 30 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Southern Connecticut State | W 31-7 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass Newman 267 · Rush Morad 83 · Rec McDonald 70 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @James Madison | L 3-87 129 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Newman 101 · Rush Moats-Maynard 33 · Rec Fowler-El 45 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @California | L 7-49 130 Roaring | 1-3 | 0-1 | Pass Newman 86 · Rush James 36 · Rec Burrell 24 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Central Connecticut | L 14-45 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass Wiley 135 · Rush James 26 · Rec Perkins Jr. 95 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Princeton | L 13-28 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Newman 176 · Rush Morad 38 · Rec Burrell 60 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | Long Island University | L 9-14 | 1-6 | 0-3 | Pass Newman 196 · Rush Kamau 24 · Rec Perkins Jr. 87 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Duquesne | L 21-52 | 1-7 | 0-4 | Pass Newman 237 · Rush Morad 68 · Rec Colclough 53 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | @Merrimack | L 14-19 | 1-8 | 0-4 | Pass Wiley 81 · Rush Morad 91 · Rec Bars 37 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Mercyhurst | 12 pm ET · NEC Front Row28% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | New Haven | 12 pm ET41% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Stonehill | 12 pm ET12% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Wagner, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @Merrimack | L 14-19 | — | — | — | −0.018 | 30.5% | 1.60 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | @Duquesne | L 21-52 | — | — | — | +0.084 | 40.8% | 1.07 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | Long Island University | L 9-14 | — | — | — | −0.027 | 34.6% | 1.24 | One-score loss |
| Oct 10 | Princeton | L 13-28 | — | — | — | +0.050 | 39.7% | 1.18 | |
| Oct 3 | @Central Connecticut | L 14-45 | — | — | — | −0.072 | 39.7% | 1.12 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 19 | @California | L 7-49 | 198 | 1 | 28:08 | −0.152 | 27.4% | 1.36 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | @James Madison | L 3-87 | 204 | 2 | 37:24 | −0.522 | 14.1% | 1.52 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | Southern Connecticut State | W 31-7 | — | — | — | +0.094 | 41.8% | 1.27 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Robert Morris | L 7-28 | — | — | — | −0.459 | 13.8% | 1.16 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 201 | 1.5 | −0.113 | 31.4% | 1.28 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last seven.
Range of outcomes · Wagner · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 38%; 2 wins 46%; 3 wins 16%; 4 wins 1%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-8
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among NEC teams the same season
Wagner is the Seahawks grinding away in the Northeast Conference — a program that shows up, competes, and earns respect through consistency and tough NEC football.
Wagner is the Seahawks grinding away in the Northeast Conference — a program that shows up, competes, and earns respect through consistency and tough NEC football.
Range of outcomes · Wagner · 2026