The rest of the season
Three real tests left: North Carolina Central 20%, Delaware State 34%, Norfolk State 40%
Win out 3% · expect 0.9 of 3 more wins
Morgan State University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Delaware State 34%, Norfolk State 40%, North Carolina Central 20%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Cameron Edge 1,838 · Rushing Keith Jenkins Jr. 417 · Receiving Justin Perry 553 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @North Carolina A&T | W 17-7 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Edge 167 · Rush Barnett 114 · Rec Towler 68 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Arizona State | L 7-70 120 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Edge 54 · Rush Spells 39 · Rec Perry 21 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 55-0 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Edge 282 · Rush Barnett 56 · Rec Perry 122 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Towson | W 41-26 | 3-1 | 0-0 | Pass Edge 209 · Rush Barnett 71 · Rec Towler 76 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Villanova | W 38-35 | 4-1 | 0-0 | Pass Edge 444 · Rush Harris 32 · Rec Perry 152 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Robert Morris | W 28-27 | 5-1 | 0-0 | Pass Edge 181 · Rush Jenkins Jr. 98 · Rec Towler 66 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Tennessee State | L 16-25 | 5-2 | 0-0 | Pass Edge 162 · Rush Jenkins Jr. 113 · Rec Towler 56 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | Howard | L 20-26 | 5-3 | 0-1 | Pass Edge 195 · Rush Jenkins Jr. 82 · Rec Towler 51 |
| 9 | Oct 29 | South Carolina State | L 10-51 | 5-4 | 0-2 | Pass Edge 144 · Rush Jenkins Jr. 18 · Rec Perry 72 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Delaware State | 1 pm ET34% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Norfolk State | 12 pm ET40% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @North Carolina Central | 2 pm ET20% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Morgan State University, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29 | South Carolina State | L 10-51 | — | — | — | −0.295 | 18.4% | 0.67 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Howard | L 20-26 | — | — | — | −0.008 | 32.8% | 1.22 | One-score loss |
| Oct 17 | @Tennessee State | L 16-25 | — | — | — | −0.103 | 36.8% | 1.41 | |
| Oct 10 | Robert Morris | W 28-27 | — | — | — | +0.258 | 41.4% | 1.50 | One-score win |
| Oct 3 | @Villanova | W 38-35 | — | — | — | +0.489 | 53.3% | 1.43 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | @Towson | W 41-26 | — | — | — | +0.428 | 48.1% | 1.38 | |
| Sep 12 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 55-0 | — | — | — | +0.698 | 51.7% | 1.70 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Arizona State | L 7-70 | 188 | 0 | 30:12 | −0.054 | 30.8% | 0.99 | Defense's roughest night |
| Aug 29 | @North Carolina A&T | W 17-7 | — | — | — | +0.270 | 41.9% | 1.33 | |
| Season average (9 games) | 188 | 0.0 | +0.187 | 39.5% | 1.29 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and lost the last three.
We had those guys last year down and we did not do what we need to do to finish the game
Range of outcomes · Morgan State University · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 32%; 6 wins 45%; 7 wins 20%; 8 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-4
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MEAC teams the same season
Morgan State University is 5-4 and plays at Delaware State next.
Morgan State University is 5-4 and plays at Delaware State next.
Range of outcomes · Morgan State University · 2026