The rest of the season
Two real tests left: South Carolina State 18%, Norfolk State 58%
Win out 8% · expect 1.6 of 3 more wins
North Carolina Central University's chance to win each game left, from our model: Norfolk State 58%, South Carolina State 18%, Morgan State 80%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Nelson Layne 836 · Rushing Gino Addison 536 · Receiving Chance Peterson 404 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | @Texas Southern | L 30-42 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Layne 131 · Rush Layne 116 · Rec Lesane 36 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | Elizabeth City State | W 27-6 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Layne 160 · Rush Dobson 59 · Rec Peterson 109 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | North Carolina A&T | W 30-22 | 2-1 | 0-0 | Pass Layne 146 · Rush Lawrence 210 · Rec Wall 31 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | @Gardner-Webb | L 20-44 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Layne 150 · Rush Lawrence 59 · Rec Saunders 48 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @East Carolina | L 9-42 130 | 2-3 | 0-0 | Pass Thompkins 108 · Rush Dobson 37 · Rec Cosby 43 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | Campbell | L 31-38 | 2-4 | 0-0 | Pass Layne 129 · Rush Dobson 80 · Rec Peterson 84 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | William & Mary | L 14-17 | 2-5 | 0-0 | Pass Jones 96 · Rush Addison 169 · Rec Addison 43 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 23 | @Delaware State | W 31-12 | 3-5 | 1-0 | Pass Thompkins 155 · Rush Addison 214 · Rec Wall 49 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Howard | W 34-0 | 4-5 | 2-0 | Pass Jones 189 · Rush Addison 80 · Rec Wall 145 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Norfolk State | 12 pm ET58% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @South Carolina State | 1:30 pm ET18% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Morgan State | 2 pm ET80% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for North Carolina Central University, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Howard | W 34-0 | — | — | — | +0.186 | 35.2% | 1.56 | Best defensive stand |
| Oct 23 | @Delaware State | W 31-12 | — | — | — | +0.369 | 53.4% | 1.07 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 10 | William & Mary | L 14-17 | — | — | — | +0.002 | 38.6% | 1.30 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | Campbell | L 31-38 | — | — | — | +0.037 | 35.4% | 1.40 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @East Carolina | L 9-42 | 208 | 3 | 38:20 | −0.296 | 22.5% | 1.44 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 19 | @Gardner-Webb | L 20-44 | — | — | — | −0.188 | 25.0% | 1.67 | Most explosive |
| Sep 12 | North Carolina A&T | W 30-22 | — | — | — | +0.140 | 37.1% | 1.36 | One-score win |
| Sep 5 | Elizabeth City State | W 27-6 | — | — | — | +0.117 | 43.5% | 1.20 | |
| Aug 29 | @Texas Southern | L 30-42 | — | — | — | −0.012 | 40.5% | 1.14 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (9 games) | 208 | 3.0 | +0.040 | 36.8% | 1.35 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · North Carolina Central University · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 7%; 5 wins 39%; 6 wins 46%; 7 wins 8%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MEAC teams the same season
North Carolina Central is the Aggie-Eagle Classic home—a 100+-year HBCU rivalry so old it predates modern conference structure, and the Eagles' identity is bound to that annual battle for state pride.
North Carolina Central is the Aggie-Eagle Classic home—a 100+-year HBCU rivalry so old it predates modern conference structure, and the Eagles' identity is bound to that annual battle for state pride.
Range of outcomes · North Carolina Central University · 2026