The rest of the season
Two real tests left: North Carolina Central 42%, Morgan State 60%
Win out 18% · expect 1.7 of 3 more wins
Norfolk State University's chance to win each game left, from our model: North Carolina Central 42%, Morgan State 60%, Howard 71%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Da'Jean Golmond 1,214 · Rushing Jalyn Daniels 682 · Receiving Elyjah Mitchell 493 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Winston-Salem State | W 56-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 119 · Rush Daniels 104 · Rec Mitchell 50 |
| 1 | Sep 5 | @Old Dominion | L 10-31 115 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 94 · Rush Daniels 84 · Rec Billups II 49 |
| 2 | Sep 11 | @Virginia | L 3-59 127 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 142 · Rush Daniels 22 · Rec Mitchell 43 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Hampton | W 42-21 | 2-2 | 0-0 | Pass Bailey 184 · Rush Daniels 102 · Rec Mitchell 85 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Chicago State | W 43-20 | 3-2 | 0-0 | Pass Golmond 265 · Rush Daniels 136 · Rec Mitchell 87 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Robert Morris | L 31-33 | 3-3 | 0-0 | Pass Golmond 371 · Rush Daniels 71 · Rec Mitchell 81 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 62-0 | 4-3 | 0-0 | Pass Golmond 91 · Rush Daniels 87 · Rec Caldwell 35 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | @South Carolina State | L 7-22 | 4-4 | 0-1 | Pass Golmond 162 · Rush Daniels 51 · Rec Caldwell 80 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Delaware State (N) | L 33-36 | 4-5 | 0-2 | Pass Golmond 278 · Rush Daniels 25 · Rec Mitchell 91 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | North Carolina Central | 12 pm ET42% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Morgan State | 12 pm ET60% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Howard | 12 pm ET71% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Norfolk State University, through 9 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Delaware State | L 33-36 | — | — | — | −0.050 | 36.5% | 1.32 | One-score loss |
| Oct 24 | @South Carolina State | L 7-22 | — | — | — | −0.300 | 28.1% | 1.69 | |
| Oct 10 | Virginia Lynchburg | W 62-0 | — | — | — | +0.169 | 54.2% | 1.10 | Best success rate |
| Oct 3 | @Robert Morris | L 31-33 | — | — | — | +0.198 | 42.7% | 1.47 | One-score loss |
| Sep 26 | @Chicago State | W 43-20 | — | — | — | +0.189 | 39.5% | 1.83 | Most explosive |
| Sep 19 | Hampton | W 42-21 | — | — | — | +0.037 | 47.4% | 1.06 | |
| Sep 11 | @Virginia | L 3-59 | 223 | 3 | 31:46 | −0.414 | 31.8% | 0.73 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 5 | @Old Dominion | L 10-31 | 220 | 3 | 32:19 | −0.210 | 26.2% | 1.01 | |
| Aug 29 | Winston-Salem State | W 56-0 | — | — | — | +0.504 | 53.6% | 1.33 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (9 games) | 222 | 3.0 | +0.014 | 40.0% | 1.28 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
4-6 over the last 10, and lost the last two.
He did a lot of things that he’s been showing in practice and he just needed the game experience
Range of outcomes · Norfolk State University · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
4 wins 7%; 5 wins 31%; 6 wins 44%; 7 wins 18%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 9 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 4-5
Measured from 9 games · ranks are among MEAC teams the same season
Norfolk State is the HBCU fortress hosting the Battle of the Bay—a program betting its future on Michael Vick's star power and coaching acumen to rebuild from a 1–11 disaster into Black college football relevance.
Norfolk State is the HBCU fortress hosting the Battle of the Bay—a program betting its future on Michael Vick's star power and coaching acumen to rebuild from a 1–11 disaster into Black college football relevance.
Range of outcomes · Norfolk State University · 2026