The rest of the season
Three real tests left: Alabama A&M 7%, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 17%, Alabama State 22%
Win out <1% · expect 0.5 of 3 more wins
Texas Southern's chance to win each game left, from our model: Alabama State 22%, Alabama A&M 7%, Arkansas-Pine Bluff 17%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Cam'Ron McCoy 1,264 · Rushing Athean Renfro 899 · Receiving Roriyon Richardson 286 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | North Carolina Central | W 42-30 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass McCoy 185 · Rush Renfro 163 · Rec Mcgee 115 |
| 1 | Sep 6 | @Prairie View A&M | L 14-52 | 1-1 | 0-1 | Pass McCoy 81 · Rush Renfro 85 · Rec Richardson 46 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | @UTEP | L 10-51 116 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass McCoy 85 · Rush Renfro 45 · Rec Phipps 31 |
| 3 | Bye week | |||||
| 4 | Sep 26 | @Alcorn State | L 40-43 | 1-3 | 0-2 | Pass McCoy 319 · Rush McCoy 86 · Rec Walker 110 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Florida Atlantic | L 10-66 125 | 1-4 | 0-2 | Pass McCoy 158 · Rush Renfro 101 · Rec Richardson 61 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | Mississippi Valley State | L 34-38 | 1-5 | 0-3 | Pass McCoy 279 · Rush Renfro 82 · Rec Walker 99 |
| 7 | Bye week | |||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Southern | W 24-21 | 2-5 | 1-3 | Pass McCoy 42 · Rush Renfro 135 · Rec Richardson 28 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Grambling | W 23-20 | 3-5 | 2-3 | Pass McCoy 115 · Rush Renfro 233 · Rec Rodgers 49 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | Alabama State | 3 pm ET22% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | @Alabama A&M | 3 pm ET7% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 4 pm ET17% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Texas Southern, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Grambling | W 23-20 | — | — | — | +0.235 | 39.3% | 1.88 | Most explosive |
| Oct 24 | Southern | W 24-21 | — | — | — | +0.218 | 41.5% | 1.19 | One-score win |
| Oct 10 | Mississippi Valley State | L 34-38 | — | — | — | +0.016 | 37.9% | 1.51 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | @Florida Atlantic | L 10-66 | 312 | 2 | 42:22 | +0.094 | 36.1% | 1.15 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 26 | @Alcorn State | L 40-43 | — | — | — | +0.314 | 47.1% | 1.22 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | @UTEP | L 10-51 | 211 | 2 | 36:36 | −0.015 | 28.1% | 1.25 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 6 | @Prairie View A&M | L 14-52 | — | — | — | −0.056 | 34.1% | 0.98 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | North Carolina Central | W 42-30 | — | — | — | +0.474 | 47.3% | 1.61 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 262 | 2.0 | +0.160 | 38.9% | 1.35 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
Range of outcomes · Texas Southern · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
3 wins 60%; 4 wins 34%; 5 wins 6%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 3-5
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Texas Southern is 3-5 and hosts Alabama State next.
Texas Southern is 3-5 and hosts Alabama State next.
Range of outcomes · Texas Southern · 2026