The rest of the season
One real test left: Grambling 49%
Win out 28% · expect 2.0 of 3 more wins
Arkansas-Pine Bluff's chance to win each game left, from our model: Grambling 49%, Prairie View A&M 70%, Texas Southern 83%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
LeadersPassing Garrison Davis 709 · Rushing Za'Marion Webber 434 · Receiving Demetric Whitlock Jr. 570 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aug 29 | Morehouse (N) | W 35-15 | 1-0 | 0-0 | Pass Davis 182 · Rush Williams 76 · Rec Whitlock Jr. 160 |
| 1 | Sep 3 | @Missouri | L 14-54 131 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Schierholz 67 · Rush Webber 56 · Rec Brewer IV 29 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | Alcorn State (N) | L 51-53 | 1-2 | 0-1 | Pass Davis 167 · Rush Jennings 98 · Rec Robinson 89 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | Central State | W 41-35 | 2-2 | 0-1 | Pass Davis 127 · Rush Webber 77 · Rec Robinson 65 |
| 4 | Bye week | |||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Southern | W 41-10 | 3-2 | 1-1 | Pass Davis 154 · Rush Davis 92 · Rec Whitlock Jr. 94 |
| 6 | Bye week | |||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | Alabama State | L 15-21 | 3-3 | 1-2 | Pass Schierholz 243 · Rush Webber 37 · Rec Whitlock Jr. 107 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | @Florida A&M | W 31-28 | 4-3 | 2-2 | Pass Schierholz 80 · Rush Williams 66 · Rec Whitlock Jr. 74 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | Bethune-Cookman | W 63-21 | 5-3 | 3-2 | Pass Schierholz 118 · Rush Jennings 103 · Rec Robinson 65 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | @Grambling | 3 pm ET49% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Prairie View A&M | 3 pm ET70% to win | |||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Texas Southern | 4 pm ET83% to win | |||
Win chances are our model for Arkansas-Pine Bluff, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | Bethune-Cookman | W 63-21 | — | — | — | +0.417 | 43.6% | 1.82 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | @Florida A&M | W 31-28 | — | — | — | +0.220 | 43.9% | 1.12 | One-score win |
| Oct 17 | Alabama State | L 15-21 | — | — | — | +0.062 | 46.8% | 0.98 | One-score loss |
| Oct 3 | @Southern | W 41-10 | — | — | — | +0.291 | 48.2% | 1.54 | Best success rate |
| Sep 19 | Central State | W 41-35 | — | — | — | +0.322 | 47.4% | 1.57 | One-score win |
| Sep 12 | Alcorn State | L 51-53 | — | — | — | +0.291 | 46.2% | 1.23 | One-score loss |
| Sep 3 | @Missouri | L 14-54 | 198 | 0 | 26:02 | +0.017 | 27.8% | 1.51 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Aug 29 | Morehouse | W 35-15 | — | — | — | +0.282 | 38.5% | 1.86 | Most explosive |
| Season average (8 games) | 198 | 0.0 | +0.238 | 42.8% | 1.45 | ||||
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
5-5 over the last 10, and won the last two.
I feel like we had some players — I can’t say everybody — some players kind of quit
Range of outcomes · Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
5 wins 3%; 6 wins 21%; 7 wins 48%; 8 wins 28%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the FCS playoff.
More in this tab
What it is like to watch them2026 · 5-3
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among SWAC teams the same season
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 5-3 and plays at Grambling next.
Arkansas-Pine Bluff is 5-3 and plays at Grambling next.
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Arkansas-Pine Bluff · 2026