Texas Southern beats Grambling 23-20 in overtime
Team pages: Grambling · Texas Southern
Texas Southern beat Grambling 23-20 in overtime. Share this game
We had Grambling favored. Texas Southern won.
Next: Grambling vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET
Next: Texas Southern vs Alabama State, Sat Nov 7 · 3:00 PM ET
How it swung
The turning point: McCoy 6-yd TD run, Texas Southern goes ahead 23-20 (OT). Texas Southern went from 57% to 100% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Texas Southern a 28% chance, and the closing betting line (Texas Southern was a 4.5-point underdog) put it at 36%.
Down to a 13% chance in the third quarter, Texas Southern still won.
Up to an 87% chance in the third quarter, Grambling still lost.
Texas Southern 23-20 Grambling
Texas Southern wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Grambling 20-23 Texas SouthernGrambling lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The five plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:10Renfro 86-yd TD run, Texas Southern goes ahead 17-10Texas Southern 37% → 76% (+39)
- 2Q4 4:46Frye 6-yd TD pass to Murphy, ties it 17-17Texas Southern 75% → 50% (−25)
- 3Q4 0:3038-yd puntTexas Southern 56% → 35% (−21)
- 4OTFrye pass to Dickerson for a loss of 2Texas Southern 32% → 54% (+22)
- 5OTMcCoy 6-yd TD run, Texas Southern goes ahead 23-20Texas Southern 57% → 100% (+43)
The five plays that swung it
- 1Q4 11:10Renfro 86-yd TD run, Texas Southern goes ahead 17-10Grambling 63% → 24% (−39)
- 2Q4 4:46Frye 6-yd TD pass to Murphy, ties it 17-17Grambling 25% → 50% (+25)
- 3Q4 0:3038-yd puntGrambling 44% → 65% (+21)
- 4OTFrye pass to Dickerson for a loss of 2Grambling 68% → 46% (−22)
- 5OTMcCoy 6-yd TD run, Texas Southern goes ahead 23-20Grambling 43% → 0% (−43)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Grambling -4.5), at 48% for Texas Southern (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores.Every drive
Texas Southern scored on 4 of its 11 drives; Grambling on 4 of its 11.
Texas Southern’s drives are teal, Grambling’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Grambling’s side
Grambling’s best moment: Frye 6-yd TD pass to Murphy, ties it 17-17 (Q4 4:46). It lifted Grambling’s win chance by 25 points.
Too close to call on 65% of plays. The winner fell to 12%.
Box score
Texas Southern 23, Grambling 20
Texas Southern covered +4.5 by 7.5. The total, 43, stayed under 62.5.
Grambling leaders
- Passing Ashton Frye 9 of 21, 98 yds, 1 TD
- Rushing Tony Phillips 7 for 61 yds; Ashton Frye 13 for 56 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Nae'Saan Dickerson 4 for 61 yds; Jordan Bride 2 for 19 yds
Texas Southern leaders
- Passing Cam'Ron McCoy 6 of 15, 115 yds, 1 INT
- Rushing Athean Renfro 21 for 233 yds, 2 TD; Cam'Ron McCoy 11 for 46 yds, 1 TD
- Receiving Kordell Rodgers 2 for 49 yds; Fatu Mukuba 1 for 23 yds
Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last three games
Grambling · 4-3
Rated 172nd in our preseason ratings, 203rd now.
2-1 in its last three, including a 7-point win over Jackson State as an 8.5-point underdog.
L 14-21 vs Prairie View A&M No. 141 of 668 teams
lost by 7 as an 11.5-point underdog
W 48-26 vs Central State No. 384 of 668 teams
W 49-7 vs Clark Atlanta No. 376 of 668 teams
Last three games
Texas Southern · 2-5
Rated 209th in our preseason ratings, 248th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 34-38 vs Mississippi Valley State No. 260 of 668 teams
lost by 4 as a 14-point favorite
L 10-66 @ Florida Atlantic No. 103 of 668 teams
lost by 56 as a 47.5-point underdog
L 14-52 @ Prairie View A&M No. 109 of 668 teams
lost by 38 as a 10.5-point underdog
W 42-30 vs North Carolina Central No. 167 of 668 teams
won by 12 as a 10.5-point underdog
Week by week
Texas Southern
- Wk 2Lat UTEP10-51
- Wk 4Lat Alcorn State40-43
- Wk 5Lat Florida Atlantic10-66
- Wk 6Lvs Mississippi Valley State34-38
- Wk 8Wvs Southern24-21
Grambling
- Wk 2Lat TCU7-63
- Wk 4Lvs Prairie View A&M14-21
- Wk 5Wvs Alcorn State63-59
- Wk 6Wvs Jackson State45-38
- Wk 7Lat Alabama A&M31-61
Power rating by week
Grambling is rated 2.9 points ahead as of week 8. Our power rating by week; higher is better.
The series
Grambling leads the series 13-5
18 meetings since 1977 · Texas Southern has won the last 2
- 2025Texas Southern 21-20
- 2024Texas Southern 24-17
- 2023Grambling 35-23
- 2022Texas Southern 41-7
- 2021Grambling 34-20
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Texas Southern’s chances here.
Grambling favored by 4.5 · Total 62.5
How games like this usually go
Grambling by 4.5: the game against the usual path
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 427 games since 2025 with a favorite of 3.5 to 7.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2.5 points toward Texas Southern.
The total rose 1 point.
Spread: +7 → +4.5 · Total: 61.5 → 62.5
The books’ cut: 5.4%, the margin built into the odds
Home field
Home-field advantage: Bottom third of FBS.
0% at home, 0% on the road against FBS opponents (0-0 home, 0-13 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads +4.9 at home vs. away over 51 games — inside the ±9.8 noise, so the flat number is the honest one here.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 247 miles to get here.
Where next
Conference standings
Going into this game: place in the conference, then conference record.
- Texas Southern11th1-3
- Grambling8th2-2