The rest of the season
Underdogs in all 4 games left, best shot: Northern Illinois 36%
Win out <1% · expect 0.9 of 4 more wins
UTEP's chance to win each game left, from our model: Hawai'i 35%, Wyoming 17%, Air Force 6%, Northern Illinois 36%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 9th in the Mountain West · 0-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing EJ Colson 687 · Rushing Raymond Moore III 481 · Receiving Kam Thomas 283 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
Follow UTEP:Mountain WestXstudent paper
| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 4 | #212 | #17 | +40.5✗ −10.5 | @Oklahoma | L 0-51 114 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Colson 52 · Rush Moore III 49 · Rec Cheeks 22 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #196 | #205 | −27.5✓ +13.5 | Texas Southern | W 51-10 116 | 1-1 | 0-0 | Pass Colson 239 · Rush Jones 104 · Rec Thomas 92 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #197 | #18 | +34.5✗ −0.5 | @Michigan | L 17-52 117 | 1-2 | 0-0 | Pass Colson 86 · Rush Jones 34 · Rec Cheeks 45 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #176 | #64 | +11.5✗ −14.5 | Oregon State | L 7-33 123 | 1-3 | 0-0 | Pass Colson 119 · Rush Jones 34 · Rec Smith 62 |
| 5 | Oct 3 | #197 | #58 | +23.5✗ −30.5 | @New Mexico | L 7-61 118 | 1-4 | 0-1 | Pass Colson 45 · Rush Moore III 134 · Rec Thomas 47 |
| 6 | Oct 10 | #219 | #177 | +10✗ −7 | Nevada | L 13-30 124 | 1-5 | 0-2 | Pass Moore III 132 · Rush Moore III 65 · Rec Smith 56 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #239 | #126 | +6.5✗ −6.5 | San José State | L 11-24 142 | 1-6 | 0-3 | Pass Moore III 195 · Rush Jones 62 · Rec Thomas 96 |
| 8 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | #238 | #62 | +23.5✗ −0.5 | @North Dakota State | L 7-31 120 | 1-7 | 0-4 | Pass Colson 59 · Rush Moore III 67 · Rec Smith 41 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #241 | #115 | +9.5 | Hawai'i | 9:30 pm ET · FS135% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #240 | #124 | Wyoming | time TBA17% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 20 | @Air Force | 8 pm ET · The CW6% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Northern Illinois | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for UTEP, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for UTEP: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @North Dakota State | L 7-31 | 238 | 3 | 23:16 | -0.155 | 29.4% | 1.41 | |
| Oct 17 | San José State | L 11-24 | 462 | 0 | 35:17 | +0.162 | 40.5% | 1.49 | |
| Oct 10 | Nevada | L 13-30 | 211 | 0 | 24:34 | -0.019 | 23.1% | 1.82 | |
| Oct 3 | @New Mexico | L 7-61 | 270 | 5 | 28:32 | -0.315 | 27.8% | 1.89 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Sep 26 | Oregon State | L 7-33 | 222 | 1 | 34:23 | -0.208 | 33.8% | 0.77 | |
| Sep 19 | @Michigan | L 17-52 | 150 | 1 | 28:22 | -0.245 | 25.5% | 1.33 | Blowout loss |
| Sep 12 | Texas Southern | W 51-10 | 491 | 1 | 23:24 | +0.243 | 52.7% | 1.35 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Sep 4 | @Oklahoma | L 0-51 | 198 | 2 | 29:28 | -0.251 | 33.9% | 0.94 | Defense's roughest night |
| Season average (8 games) | 280 | 1.6 | -0.099 | 33.3% | 1.37 | ||||
UTEP's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
1-9 over the last 10, and lost the last six.
It’s unfortunate, I thought we had a great week of practice. So that was kind of surprising
Range of outcomes · UTEP · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
1 wins 33%; 2 wins 44%; 3 wins 20%; 4 wins 3%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
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This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 1-7
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
UTEP is the desert outpost on the far western tip of Texas — the most isolated program in major-college football, whose proudest banner is a basketball one, and whose football team keeps reaching for a winning season it can't quite hold.
Miners fans know their program is the one the rest of the country forgets exists — 600 miles from the nearest power program, in a city the maps put in the corner. They'll tell you El Paso shows up…
UTEP · Game-day weather
This Saturday: Cool. Bring a jacket.
Hawai'i at UTEP · Saturday, Nov. 7 · 9:30 pm ET · FS1 · Sun Bowl.
Forecast, read Wed Nov 4, 8:20 am ET. It can change until kickoff.
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 114 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50. Gusts count toward the score (up to 15 points). Average rain chance: the hourly chances of rain over the first 3 hours and 20 minutes, averaged.
UTEP is the Conference USA program whose Sun Bowl hosting heritage + Mike Price 2004-2012 era + 1966 NCAA basketball title (as Texas Western) + Don Haskins legacy define what historic-El-Paso-football looks like.
Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
No high-engagement r/cfb discussions tracked for this program in the last year.
Fans and ratings
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · UTEP · 2026