underdogthis cycle✓ factnew
Kenny Odom produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
UTEP
1-1Latest
UTEP fans choose kickoff time for San Jose State gameour readKenny Odom produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.our read
Mountain West · Scotty Walden, year 3 (6-20) · Sun Bowl · 51,500 · 24,580 avg in 2026
The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#136 CFB ZeitgeistSP+ #132 (-24.3) · FPI #129
The marketMichigan by 35at Michigan · our model 6% UTEP · a number, not a pick
LastW 51–10 vs Texas Southern · Sat Sep 12 · EJ Colson 239 pass yds, 4 TD, 49 rush yds
Nextat Michigan · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 pm ET · Michigan Stadium · Michigan by 35 · first meeting on record · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
UTEP · 2026 schedule & results1-1
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #212 | #17 | +40.5✗ | @Oklahoma | L 0–51 114 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 13 | #197 | #206 | -27.5✓ | Texas Southern | W 51–10 116 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #194 | #18 | +35 | @Michigan | |||
| 4 | Sep 27 | #194 | #60 | Oregon State | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @New Mexico | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Nevada | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 18 | San José State | ||||||
| 9 | Oct 31 | @North Dakota State | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 7 | Hawai'i | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 14 | Wyoming | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @Air Force | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | @Northern Illinois |
Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, explosiveness)▼
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13 | Texas Southern | W 51–10 | 491 | 1 | 23:24 | +0.318 | 52.7% | 148.9% | |
| Sep 5 | @Oklahoma | L 0–51 | 198 | 2 | 29:28 | -0.251 | 33.9% | 93.9% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 344 | 1.5 | +0.033 | 43.3% | 121.4% | ||||
Verdict Begins·Live
UTEP is the desert outpost on the far western tip of Texas — the most isolated program in major-college football, whose proudest banner is a basketball one, and whose football team keeps reaching for a winning season it can't quite hold.
Standard GapMike Price's mid-2000s bowl teams and a fiercely loyal borderland fanbas…
Miners fans know their program is the one the rest of the country forgets exists — 600 miles from the nearest power program, in a city the maps put in the corner. They'll tell you El Paso shows up any…
low signal
The season in chapters
Ahead
What fans said
UTEP fans
UTEP fans
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 2-10 · last season
Game feel54even gamescombined pts / game5th highest-scoring of 12 in the Conference USA
Heart rate0-3rarely closein one-score games (3 of 12)10th most one-score games of 12 in the Conference USA
Margin-7.1outgunnedavg scoring margin10th best margin of 12 in the Conference USA
Tempo65average paceoffensive plays / game9th fastest of 12 in the Conference USA
Big plays1.43highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)2nd most explosive of 12 in the Conference USA
Home crowd15,818avg attendance5th biggest crowds of 11 in the Conference USA
✓ measured from 12 games · ranks are among Conference USA teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
UTEP has won one of its last five.
Cold. 2-8 over the last 10, and won the last one.
Streak W1Last 5 · 1-4Last 10 · 2-8
Elliot’s [Sr.] hearts for kids, for develop[ment], you can tell he coached EJ when EJ was really young and that was a passion of his and just like that type of man he is what he stands for, I think that’s just a man and a family that loves their son
The forecast
Next Sep 19
vs Michigan · away
PoorPass-first, spreadExplosive, big-play
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Season expectations
CFP championship#129 in field+100000
Mountain West title#10 in market+10000
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
UTEP · the story right now
8 storylines developing
What UTEP's offseason is really about
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
portal2025-05-15~readnew
Malachi Nelson (QB) and Ashaad Hall (EDGE) headline UTEP's top-3 Mountain West portal class — an addition to a 2-10 roster with 100% production returning, not a rescue.
what happenedUTEP signed a top-68 transfer-portal class — 26 additions headlined by Malachi Nelson (QB) from Boise State and Marcell Blocker (CB) from Florida Memorial University. ✓ fact
the contexta top-3 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Eric Willis III is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Kenny Odom: a depth dna signal screened this season.
our readbackground
deep threat2025 cycle~attributednew
Wondame Davis Jr. is a real deep-ball threat -- a high share of his targets come on throws past the sticks.
our readbackground
coordinatorsthis cycle~readnew
Scotty Walden enters his third season at UTEP with a 2-10 losing record to address, as the program seeks to redefine its identity beyond its historic El-Paso football legacy.
what happenedUTEP: coordinator change reshaping a unit. ✓ fact
our readbackground
coordinators2025 cycle✓ factnew
UTEP: coordinator change reshaping a unit.
our readbackground
program_outlookthis cycle~readnew
UTEP enters 2026 — top-quintile returning production contrasts with a 2-10 record, and Scotty Walden's second season must reconcile the program's historic identity with its current FBS tier standing.
what happenedUTEP enters 2026 rated No. 129 in 2025 SP+ (-17.5). ✓ fact
the contexttop-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back
our readbackground
How past storylines here turned out
Died downUTEP's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.
ReplacedUTEP's offensive coordinator spot turned over again the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredUTEP's head-coaching hire held for another season.
Outcome band · UTEP · 2026
Outcome band · UTEP · 2026UTEP's most likely season is 5-7 — no postseason. The floor is 3-9; the ceiling is 8-5.
Floor 3-9Ceiling 8-5Base 5-7
0 wins13 wins
Floor3-9No postseason, 2 fewer wins.
Base5-7No postseason.
Ceiling8-5A bowl game.
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
How the room reacted
Following now · UTEP · Transfer portal Confidence
UTEP went deep in the portal this cycle. Portal volume is the start of the story, not the verdict.
UTEP signed a top-68 transfer-portal class — 26 additions headlined by Malachi Nelson (QB) from Boise State and Marcell Blocker (CB) from Florida Memorial University. It is a top-3 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle. Portal pickups are proven college players — the split isn't about development, it's about whether they fit the scheme and win their position battles. Coverage is split on whether volume or positional fit is the bigger story.
the room is genuinely split
where the takes land · dot = how loud
DOUBTBELIEF
Skeptics2 doubt takes
Believers3 bull takes
💬 fans: 2% volume
Developing2 new this week
6 days ago2026 MW/PAC-12 All-Transfer Team: Week One — news
last weekOU football adds four players to start season from transfer portal thanks to TRO's — Norman Transcript
2 weeks ago2026 Mountain West/PAC-12 Preseason Transfer Team of the Year — news
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Malachi Nelson QB · Boise State
“UTEP quarterback Malachi Nelson makes surprising decision on future” — On3 · 2026-07-15
Marcell Blocker CB · Florida Memorial University
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
Malachi Nelson (QB) and Ashaad Hall (EDGE) headline UTEP's top-3 Mountain West portal class — an addition to a 2-10 roster with 100% production returning, not a rescue.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious question after any portal class isn't who signed — it's who just lost their job. Depth-chart displacement is the untold second chapter: one starter-level arrival means a returning contributor is now competing or transferring out. Watch depth-chart competition in fall camp — that's where portal classes win or lose their billing. The boards are already there — one thread raises exactly this.
Source of record: UTEP signed a top-68 transfer-portal class — 26 additions headlined by Malachi Nelson (QB) from Boise State and Marcell Blocker (CB) from Florida Memorial University — a top-3 portal class in the Mountain West this cycle.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers3 bullish/portal items -- the case it's working.›
The 'portal class fills the gaps' believers -- upgrades at real positions of need.
“OU football adds four players to start season from transfer portal thanks to TRO's”
Norman Transcript · 2026-09-08 · read ↗
“UTEP quarterback Malachi Nelson makes surprising decision on future”
On3 · 2026-07-15 · read ↗
“UTEP men’s golf adds transfer Luke Harwick”
KVIA · 2026-07-13 · read ↗
🧐Skeptics“TRANSFER PORTAL PUTS PRESSURE ON HIGH SCHOOL QUARTERBACKS” — the real counter.›
The 'portal is a gamble' counter -- departure losses and the 'plug-and-play doesn't work' read.
“TRANSFER PORTAL PUTS PRESSURE ON HIGH SCHOOL QUARTERBACKS”
MWC Connection · 2026-08-17 · read ↗
💬The boards3 board mentions — too thin to call a stance.›
Only 3 of 174 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
"Hi i'm transferring to UTEP and I am not familiar with how the parking works. I tried looking through their page and emailing them but they were of no help. When you purchase the p"
r/UTEP ~ fan take
"Am from El Paso and about to transfer to UTEP as a Junior from DACC. I used to go to UTEP all the time for different kinds of events so I know UTEP pretty well when it comes to whe"
r/UTEP ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Following now · UTEP · Season outlook Confidence
UTEP is near the bottom of the model. The math is the story.
UTEP enters 2026 rated No. 129 in 2025 SP+ (-17.5). It is top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back. SP+ describes what the program HAS done, not what it will do. The season is the field test. The preview consensus leans in — but preseason ratings reward the recent past, not the season ahead.
CFB Zeitgeist Read · our take
UTEP enters 2026 — top-quintile returning production contrasts with a 2-10 record, and Scotty Walden's second season must reconcile the program's historic identity with its current FBS tier standing.
Next · what to watch
The non-obvious read on this rating isn't the number — it's the schedule. A team at this level has 2-3 games where the model says they're overmatched, and those are the games that define the narrative. Watch whether the model holds through the first month of the schedule.
Source of record: UTEP enters 2026 rated No. 129 in 2025 SP+ (-17.5) — top-quintile returning production in FBS — 1% of production comes back.
How each room is reacting — tap to expand
📣Believers2 bullish items -- the case it's working.›
The 'the projection is underselling us' read -- fans betting the season beats the preview number.
“INSIDE THE WIN: UTEP football beats Texas Southern in home opener”
KTSM 9 News · 2026-09-14 · read ↗
“UTEP turns early deficit into runaway win before Michigan trip”
El Paso Times · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
“No. 19 Michigan squares off against UTEP in Week 3”
apnews.com · 2026-09-13 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsNo prominent dissent — the coverage runs one way.›
The 'the model has seen the tape' counter -- efficiency ratings reward what a program has actually done, not hope.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
💬The boards26% of recent board volume — the fanbase is locked in.›
This event was in 45 of 174 board posts (26%) over the last 60 days — a fanbase consumed by it. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
"Does anyone know where I can find the people that sell the T-shirts they make for the concerts. I like to buy T-shirts from them too. I know for the Don Haskins they sell directly"
r/UTEP ~ fan take
"Hey yall. I graduated from UTEP in 2024 with a Bachelors in Biology with a Biomedical track. Unfortunately, it never occurred to me to join labs while I was there and it has really"
r/UTEP ~ fan take
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
More in this tab
Game day
The experience
UTEP is the Conference USA program whose Sun Bowl hosting heritage + Mike Price 2004-2012 era + 1966 NCAA basketball title (as Texas Western) + Don Haskins legacy define what historic-El-Paso-football looks like.
Offense: PoorRun/Pass: Pass-first, spreadTempo: Explosive, big-play
Open questions
The story
Roster
Roster Reload - UTEP
2026 snapshot - 2026-09-15Returning Production-1%Low continuity / heavy reload
Talent Composite#102 nationally247 composite 585.8
Portal Additions21Primary repair: K
Portal Losses20Primary pressure: OT
Draft Loss0No NFL Draft departures recorded
Recruiting Reload#92Depth class
IOLin 3 - Brian Williams Jr.out 3 - Tyrone McDuffie IIIEven
current room: 304 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Full roster (110 players)
CBDarien Fantroy, Decorian Thompson, Ekow Taylor, Justin Content, Kofi Taylor-Barrocks, LaTristan Thompson, TJ Tillman
DLCaynan James, DAdrian Tinney-Anderson, Derek Burns, Jaxon Smith, Jerrell Brasher, Jimmy Leon, Justin Roberts, Leander Parrish, Oryend Fisher, Preston Hickey, Shakaun Bowser, Shaun McDowell, Sterling Miles, Truth Holmes
LBCopelin Windfont, Dylan Brown-Turner, Garrett Hawkins, Jalen Hamilton, Japrei Wafer, Jayden Wilson, Justin Lee, Kane White-Tinsley, Vashon Brunswick II
OLBrian Williams Jr., Craig Wydra, Diego De La Cruz, Eddie Lartigue Jr., Eric Sandoval Araujo, Grayson Johnson, Isaiah Maumalanga, Jackson Bradley, Jayden Trapp, Jaymon Lamb, Juan Camacho Jr., Maddox Huber, Omoruyi Aliu-Otokiti, Preston Perkins, Pryce McClanahan, Rashad Smith, Ryder Slaton, Tripp Townsend, Tyler Roberts, Wesley Dallao-Kubik
RBChris Hunter, Daveon Singleton, Elijah McCoy, Jaden Moore, Lamar Sperling, Raymond Moore III, Tavorus Jones
Offseason moves
The Offseason Ledger · UTEP
2 verified updates · portal · recruiting · staff · news- News
UTEP announces jersey patch sponsor
A jersey patch deal after a 51-0 opening blowout is either desperate optics or a program that knows rebuilding costs money — Walden's betting it reads as the latter.
- News
Hawkins returns from ACL injury
Hawkins back on the practice field matters more than a depth chart update — UTEP opens at Oklahoma in September, and a healthy linebacker walking into Norman is a different conversation than a redshirt.
Who's moved
Transfer portal snapshot
-1.6 net portal points
(raw ledger: -5.7 — unweighted, no position adjustment)WR-5.8
starter risk
S+5.5
need filled
DL-5.5
CB+3.4
EDGE-3.4
OT-3.1
starter risk
K+2.0
need filled
LS+1.0
low confidence
P+1.0
low confidence
IOL-0.6
LB-0.2
QB+0.1
RB-0.1
Top commits
Top 3 commits
2026 class
★★★☆☆
Adarius Hutchinson
#1474 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 10 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
Kane White-Tinsley
#1566 national
Projects: Hybrid Nickel — 17 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Hybrid Nickel archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
★★★☆☆
JD Wallace
#1566 national
Profiles like a typical incoming wide receiver — 12 of his 25 closest recruiting profiles since 2018 shared the Possession Receiver archetype.~our read · projection from recruiting profile — no college snaps yet
Where they're from
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
29
TX · 27CA · 2
TX leads the 2026 class with 27 commits. National footprint reaching 2 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
121 signees across 13 states, 2023-2026. TX leads the pull.
That is 4.8% of every high-school FBS signee TX produced over those cycles — second only to TCU, 4 signees back. The full map →
Miles from home
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median UTEP player grew up 588 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
19th-farthest from home in FBS
of 135 ranked →
Closest to homeFarthest from home
Middle 50%518–706 miquartile spread
Within 100 mi10%10 of 104 players
Farthest1,750 miRaymond Moore III · Baltimore, MD
Closest3 miTavorus Jones · El Paso, TX
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Sun Bowl. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 104 of 110 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Recruiting buzz
r/cfb this year
[Postgame Thread] ULM Defeats UTEP 31-25
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans vs. market
Fan vs. market↑
94th
Fan percentile
(FBS mood rank)
(FBS mood rank)
3.5
Vegas O/U wins
(3rd among FBS)
(3rd among FBS)
Fans 91pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 1 book
Penalties
Penalty battle
The flags have favored them: 17 penalties drawn on opponents vs. 8 committed, 61 yards to the good.
81 penalty yards committed vs. 142 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
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