The rest of the season
4 of 4 games under 70%, the hardest: North Dakota State 7%
Win out 1% · expect 1.4 of 4 more wins
Northern Illinois's chance to win each game left, from our model: San José State 35%, Nevada 35%, North Dakota State 7%, UTEP 64%Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%.
StandingTied for 9th in the Mountain West · 0-4 in conference play · All standings
LeadersPassing Taron Dickens 1,617 · Rushing Telly Johnson Jr. 574 · Receiving DeAree Rogers 633 All player stats
Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 9
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| Wk | Date | Our rank | Opp rank | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf | Top performers |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #101 | #13 | +31.5✗ −8.5 | @Iowa | L 0-40 133 | 0-1 | 0-0 | Pass Dickens 96 · Rush Johnson Jr. 16 · Rec McInerney 55 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #95 | #135 | +2.5✗ −1.5 | Illinois State | L 24-28 129 | 0-2 | 0-0 | Pass Dickens 193 · Rush Johnson Jr. 83 · Rec Rogers 74 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #103 | #27 | +34.5✓ +9.5 | @Arizona | L 17-42 131 | 0-3 | 0-0 | Pass Dickens 228 · Rush Johnson Jr. 69 · Rec Rogers 68 |
| 4 | Sep 26 | #108 | #128 | +8.5✗ −12.5 | @Georgia State | L 14-35 130 | 0-4 | 0-0 | Pass Dickens 320 · Rush Johnson Jr. 85 · Rec Rogers 107 |
| 5 | Bye week | ||||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | #130 | #83 | +7✗ −14 | Air Force | L 7-28 111 | 0-5 | 0-1 | Pass Dickens 140 · Rush Johnson Jr. 47 · Rec Rogers 81 |
| 7 | Oct 17 | #149 | #142 | +7✗ −11 | @Wyoming | L 23-41 133 | 0-6 | 0-2 | Pass Dickens 216 · Rush Johnson Jr. 139 · Rec Rogers 89 |
| 8 | Oct 24 | #170 | #137 | +3✗ −32 | Hawai'i | L 21-56 126 | 0-7 | 0-3 | Pass Dickens 171 · Rush Johnson Jr. 63 · Rec Rogers 115 |
| 9 | Oct 31 | #194 | #89 | +21.5✓ +14.5 | @UNLV | L 24-31 137 | 0-8 | 0-4 | Pass Dickens 253 · Rush Porter 113 · Rec Dimopoulos 127 |
| 10 | Nov 7 | #198 | #133 | +10.5 | @San José State | 4 pm ET35% to win | |||
| 11 | Nov 14 | #193 | #164 | Nevada | time TBA35% to win | ||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | @North Dakota State | 4 pm ET · The CW7% to win | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 28 | UTEP | time TBA | ||||||
Win chances are our model for Northern Illinois, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.
The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.
Line is the closing point spread for Northern Illinois: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Big plays (IsoPPP) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31 | @UNLV | L 24-31 | 493 | 1 | 35:09 | +0.149 | 44.0% | 1.30 | Season-high EPA/play |
| Oct 24 | Hawai'i | L 21-56 | 266 | 5 | 22:16 | +0.053 | 45.3% | 1.26 | Blowout loss |
| Oct 17 | @Wyoming | L 23-41 | 392 | 0 | 29:55 | +0.148 | 35.1% | 1.45 | Most explosive |
| Oct 10 | Air Force | L 7-28 | 253 | 1 | 20:51 | -0.117 | 44.4% | 0.92 | |
| Sep 26 | @Georgia State | L 14-35 | 432 | 2 | 33:11 | -0.064 | 39.7% | 1.36 | |
| Sep 19 | @Arizona | L 17-42 | 341 | 0 | 29:40 | +0.037 | 38.2% | 1.41 | Defense's roughest night |
| Sep 12 | Illinois State | L 24-28 | 308 | 2 | 28:44 | -0.078 | 47.0% | 0.79 | Best success rate |
| Sep 5 | @Iowa | L 0-40 | 120 | 2 | 26:09 | -0.332 | 17.2% | 1.37 | Season-low EPA/play |
| Season average (8 games) | 326 | 1.6 | -0.025 | 38.9% | 1.23 | ||||
Northern Illinois's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses
Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.
What fans said
Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown
The games that decide the season
Recent form · last 10 games
0-10 over the last 10, and lost the last ten.
All we got to do is keep moving forward, keep working, figure out what works and we got to be better in the redzone
The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?
Rob Harley inherits a 3-9 roster and a program that hasn't reached a BCS bowl since 2012 — the talent rank and churn count mean this is a rebuild, not a return to glory.
Statusbackground
Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.
Range of outcomes · Northern Illinois · 2026
Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above
0 wins 14%; 1 wins 42%; 2 wins 34%; 3 wins 10%Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.
Rob Harley took over as Northern Illinois's head coach, replacing Thomas Hammock. It is replaces 7-year head coach Thomas Hammock (35-47). The hire has left the front page. The roster and the recruiting pipeline are the measure now. Coverage has moved to other stories.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Nothing in our corpus yet.
Only 4 of 392 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.
Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.
More in this tab
This week and this season
What it is like to watch them2026 · 0-8
Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mountain West teams the same season
Northern Illinois walked into South Bend in 2024 as a 28-point underdog and beat No. 5 Notre Dame 16-14 — the program's first win ever over a top-10 team — and is taking that swagger to the Mountain West after one last 3-9 season in the MAC.
DeKalb walked into one of the sport's cathedrals as a four-touchdown underdog and walked out with the win — and the national story was the giant who lost, not the Huskies who won. The fanbase keeps…
Northern Illinois · Game-day weather
Typical at Huskie Stadium: noon Saturdays score 87, 7:30 pm Saturdays 82
Typical weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read it.
At kickoff, 106 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Northern Illinois is the MAC program whose 2012 12-1 Orange Bowl appearance + Jordan Lynch Heisman finalist define what G5-can-make-BCS-bowl looks like.
The program ledger
since 2025Roster and recruiting
Top 1 commits
Top community posts · last 12 months · r/cfb
Fans and ratings
Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data
More
Each link was checked against two outside sites.
Range of outcomes · Northern Illinois · 2026