Illinois State beats Northern Illinois 28-24
Team pages: Illinois State · Northern Illinois
Illinois State beat Northern Illinois 28-24. Share this game
We had Northern Illinois favored. Illinois State won.
How it swung
The turning point: Johnson 1-yd TD run, Northern Illinois goes ahead 24-21 (Q4, 7:24). Illinois State went from 54% to 26% to win.
Before kickoff, our ratings gave Illinois State a 65% chance, and the closing betting line (Illinois State was a 2.5-point favorite) put it at 58%.
Down to 23% in the fourth quarter, Illinois State came back to win.
Up to 77% in the fourth quarter, then Northern Illinois lost it.
Illinois State · Q1 12:41Pick-six
Northern Illinois · Q2 12:3924 unansweredNorthern Illinois · Q4 7:24Illinois State 28-24 Northern IllinoisIllinois State wonMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.Northern Illinois 24-28 Illinois StateNorthern Illinois lostMove across the chart, or tap a numbered swing, to see any play.The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:24Johnson 1-yd TD run, Northern Illinois goes ahead 24-21Illinois State 54% → 26% (−28)
- 2Q4 1:53Roy 16-yd TD pass to Herrera, Illinois State goes ahead 28-24Illinois State 37% → 59% (+22)
- 3Q4 0:20InterceptionDickens intercepted by Dubose at the ISU25Illinois State 75% → 95% (+20)
The three plays that swung it
- 1Q4 7:24Johnson 1-yd TD run, Northern Illinois goes ahead 24-21Northern Illinois 46% → 74% (+28)
- 2Q4 1:53Roy 16-yd TD pass to Herrera, Illinois State goes ahead 28-24Northern Illinois 63% → 41% (−22)
- 3Q4 0:20InterceptionDickens intercepted by Dubose at the ISU25Northern Illinois 25% → 5% (−20)
How to read this chart
Starts from the pregame line (Illinois State -2.5), at 48% for Illinois State (the play-by-play feed's kickoff number, moved to match the line; our model's and the betting line's own numbers are in “The betting line, and the fans”). Dots are the biggest swings; ticks under the chart are scores. Outlined diamonds mark rare plays.Every drive
Illinois State scored on 3 of its 11 drives; Northern Illinois on 3 of its 11.
Illinois State’s drives are teal, Northern Illinois’s amber. A line runs from where a drive started to where it ended; a filled dot means it scored.
From Northern Illinois’s side
Northern Illinois’s best moment: Johnson 1-yd TD run, Northern Illinois goes ahead 24-21 (Q4 7:24). It lifted Northern Illinois’s win chance by 28 points.
Box score
Illinois State 28, Northern Illinois 24
Illinois State covered −2.5 by 1.5. The total, 52, went over 47.5.
| Team totals | Illinois State | Northern Illinois |
|---|---|---|
| Total yards | 254 | 308 |
| Passing | 21 of 27, 153 yds | 23 of 30, 196 yds |
| Rushing | 36 for 101 yds | 36 for 112 yds |
| First downs | 19 | 20 |
| Third down | 9 of 14 | 6 of 14 |
| Fourth down | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Turnovers | 2 | 2 |
| Penalties | 6 for 77 yds | 9 for 85 yds |
| Time of possession | 31:16 | 28:44 |
Illinois State leaders
- Passing Gage Roy 20 of 23, 146 yds, 2 TD
- Rushing Victor Dawson 12 for 46 yds; Seth Glatz 12 for 39 yds
- Receiving Dylan Lord 8 for 62 yds, 1 TD; Stevan Gavric 4 for 38 yds
Northern Illinois leaders
- Passing Taron Dickens 22 of 27, 193 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT
- Rushing Telly Johnson Jr. 22 for 83 yds, 1 TD; Elijah Porter 5 for 35 yds
- Receiving DeAree Rogers 11 for 74 yds, 1 TD; La'Don Bryant 2 for 47 yds
No rain through the game
80° at kickoff · no rain recorded
Game-day temperatures at Huskie Stadium
Drag along the chart, or step through the game.
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Where this weather comes from
Measured at De Kalb airport, 3.7 miles away. Rain is NOAA's radar-and-gauge estimate at the stadium and wind is an airport reading; neither is measured on the field. Game times come from the play-by-play, good to a minute or two. Source: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet; rain radar from NOAA MRMS, through Iowa State University. Field direction from OpenStreetMap contributors.Before kickoff
Recent games, the series and the betting line below are as they stood going in; the season profile is the season so far.
Recent games
Last two games
Illinois State · 2-0
Rated 126th in our preseason ratings, 135th now.
Two straight wins — but still hunting a ranked opponent.
W 76-0 vs St. Francis (IL)
Last three games · 2025 season
Northern Illinois · 3-9
Rated 101st in our preseason ratings, 95th now.
1-2 in its last three — but nothing on this résumé beats a top-40 team yet.
L 31-35 vs Kent State #190 of 667
lost by 4 as a 5.5-point favorite
L 19-35 vs Western Michigan #89 of 667
lost by 16 as a 6.5-point underdog
W 45-3 @ Massachusetts #262 of 667
won by 42 as an 8.5-point favorite
L 3-42 @ Toledo #43 of 667
lost by 39 as a 15.5-point underdog
W 21-7 vs Ball State #186 of 667
won by 14 as a 6.5-point favorite
L 21-48 @ Ohio #70 of 667
lost by 27 as an 11.5-point underdog
L 10-16 @ Eastern Michigan #176 of 667
lost by 6 as a 1.5-point favorite
L 14-25 vs Miami (OH) #77 of 667
lost by 11 as a 4.5-point underdog
L 3-6 vs San Diego State #85 of 667
lost by 3 as a 1.5-point underdog
L 10-38 @ Mississippi State #29 of 667
lost by 28 as a 24.5-point underdog
L 9-20 @ Maryland #67 of 667
lost by 11 as a 16.5-point underdog
W 19-17 vs Holy Cross #170 of 667
won by 2 as a 13.5-point favorite
Week by week
Northern Illinois
- Wk 1Lat Iowa0-40
Illinois State
- Wk 1Wvs St. Francis (IL)76-0
- Wk 1Wat Western Illinois41-10
The series
Northern Illinois leads the series 10-4
14 meetings since 1972 · Northern Illinois has won the last 5
- 2019Northern Illinois 24-10
- 2000Northern Illinois 52-0
- 1992Northern Illinois 26-19
- 1991Northern Illinois 27-24
- 1981Northern Illinois 40-7
Each line is Northern Illinois’s chance to win through that meeting. Northern Illinois is 1-1 in the meetings since 2018 that were still close in the fourth quarter. Older meetings have no play by play, so no line.
Line, fans and home field
The betting line, and the fans
Our model and the betting line don’t fully agree on Northern Illinois’s chances here.
Illinois State favored by 2.5 · Total 47.5
How games like this usually go
Illinois State by 2.5, and it went to form
Half of games8 in 10 gamesThis game
The band is where a favorite’s chance ran in the 252 games since 2025 with a favorite of under 3.5 points.
The market
The spread moved 2 points toward Northern Illinois.
The total fell 1 point.
Spread: +4.5 → +2.5 · Total: 48.5 → 47.5
The books’ cut: 4.3%, the margin built into the odds
Weather at kickoff
Warm and dry. Feels like 77° at kickoff.
Illinois State at Northern Illinois · Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 · Huskie Stadium, DeKalb
- 77°feels like at kickoff
- Dryno rain at kickoff
- 98weather score, Comfortable
- Tiedfor the best of the day's 5 kickoff times
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026.
Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.
Kickoff times that Saturday
Games in this time zone used 5 kickoff times that day, local time (kickoffs within 30 minutes of each other count as one). This game, ringed, was tied for the best of the day's five kickoff times. At Huskie Stadium that day, a 6:45 pm kickoff would have scored 100, against 98 at 6 pm.
- 11 am: 77, Mixed
- 2:30 pm: 72, Rough
- 3:15 pm: 74, Rough
- 6 pm: 98, Comfortable (this game)
- 6:45 pm: 100, Ideal
Weather score at each kickoff time.
Tap a dot to read that kickoff time.
At kickoff, Sept. 12, 2026. Wind is not drawn here; gusts are in each score.
Home field
Northern Illinois is worth +1.7 points (±3.6) more at home than on the road since 2018 — bottom third of FBS, 14th percentile.
39% at home, 37% on the road against FBS opponents (15-23 home, 19-32 away).
Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge (why); the books use about 3. Against the closing line this stadium reads -6.0 at home vs. away over 96 games — outside the ±5.7 noise, one of the few buildings where results say more.
Night kickoff — historically worth about half a point more to the home side against the number, and not much more than that. The visitors travel about 99 miles to get here.