Mid-American Toledo

Head coach Mike Jacobs · 1st season · 6-2 at Toledo

Record6-23-1 Mid-American · 4th
Conference title22%to win the Mid-American
Nextat Sacramento StateWed Nov 4 · 7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network

The rest of the season

Two real tests left: Sacramento State 64%, Ohio 64%

Win out 34% · expect 3.1 of 4 more wins

Toledo's chance to win each game left, from our model: Sacramento State 64%, Massachusetts 92%, Bowling Green 91%, Ohio 64%

Bar height is our model’s chance in each game left. Dashed line: 50%. Black tick: the betting line’s chance, shown where it differs from ours by 20 points or more.

Conference title chance went from 31% to 22%, peaking at 31% before a game

31%25%L17%W23%W30%W10%L15%W22%W

Our model, entering each game. The letter is the result of the game before it.

Standing4th in the Mid-American · 3-1 in conference play · All standings

LeadersPassing John Alan Richter 2,244 · Rushing CJ Miller 609 · Receiving Adjatay Dabbs 592 All player stats

The nationunrankedAP / Coaches
The model#40 CFB ZeitgeistPublic ratings: SP+ #64 (+2.0) · FPI #77
The marketToledo by 25.5Betting line at Sacramento State · our model 64% Toledo

Updated Wed Nov 4 · through week 8

Follow Toledo:athletics siteXYouTube

Schedule and results

Toledo · 2026 schedule and results6-2Balanced slateAverage opponent win rate 46% · 0 opponents played so far are in the AP top 25 now.Our rank entering each game: #48 to #47
WkDateOur rankOpp rankLineOpponentResultRecordConfTop performers
1Sep 4#48#170+10=@Michigan StateL 20-30 124Toledo lost 20-30 at Michigan State. Chance to win started at 19%, low under 1%, high 27%. Loud0-10-0Pass Richter 196 · Rush Walendzak 76 · Rec Dabbs 101
2Sep 12#50#189−36.5✓ +16.5Central ConnecticutW 63-10 134Toledo won 63-10 vs Central Connecticut. Chance to win started at 98%, low 91%, high better than 99%.1-10-0Pass Richter 252 · Rush Miller 56 · Rec Bond 135
3Sep 19#49#90−4.5✗ −3.5TempleW 49-48 148Toledo won 49-48 vs Temple. Chance to win started at 70%, low under 1%, high better than 99%.2-10-0Pass Richter 429 · Rush Walendzak 62 · Rec Crosby Jr. 95
4Sep 26#44#54−2.5✓ +22.5San Diego StateW 41-16 138Toledo won 41-16 vs San Diego State. Chance to win started at 63%, low 51%, high better than 99%.3-10-0Pass Richter 284 · Rush Ison 89 · Rec Hammer 133
5Oct 3#40#164−20.5✗ −5.5@Ball StateW 39-24 148Toledo won 39-24 at Ball State. Chance to win started at 87%, low 56%, high better than 99%.4-11-0Pass Richter 201 · Rush Miller 196 · Rec Dabbs 82
6Oct 10#42#160−18.5✗ −33.5BuffaloL 8-23 139Toledo lost 8-23 vs Buffalo. Chance to win started at 92%, low under 1%, high 92%.4-21-1Pass Richter 203 · Rush Walendzak 50 · Rec Crosby Jr. 69
7Oct 17#51#120−7.5✓ +12.5@Eastern MichiganW 34-14 141Toledo won 34-14 at Eastern Michigan. Chance to win started at 62%, low 52%, high better than 99%.5-22-1Pass Richter 288 · Rush Ison 104 · Rec Hammer 69
8Oct 24#47#43−2.5✓ +4.5Western MichiganW 45-38 150Toledo won 45-38 vs Western Michigan. Chance to win started at 67%, low 53%, high better than 99%.6-23-1Pass Richter 391 · Rush Miller 183 · Rec Dabbs 124
9Bye week
10Nov 4#39#218−25.5@Sacramento State7 pm ET · CBS Sports Network64% to win
11Nov 11#40#167Massachusettstime TBA92% to win
12Nov 20Bowling Green7:30 pm ET · ESPN291% to win
13Nov 27@Ohio12 pm ET
How to read this table

Win chances are our model for Toledo, through 8 games. This week's game comes from the playoff simulation, later games from the rating model. They are estimates and move every week.

The small line beside each score is the team's win chance through the game, drawn on one scale for every game. The small number is total plays.

Line is the closing point spread for Toledo: a minus number means favored. A green check means the team covered it, by the number beside it. A red cross means it fell short by that much.

Advanced box score (EPA, success rate, big plays)▼
DateOppResultYdsTOTOPEPA/playSuccess%Big plays (IsoPPP)Note
Oct 24Western MichiganW 45-38595233:20+0.24450.0%1.18One-score win
Oct 17@Eastern MichiganW 34-14480133:35+0.23150.0%1.09
Oct 10BuffaloL 8-23308324:35+0.09034.4%1.08Season-low EPA/play
Oct 3@Ball StateW 39-24553034:20+0.19241.4%1.34
Sep 26San Diego StateW 41-16494033:25+0.20446.5%1.26
Sep 19TempleW 49-48536126:22+0.37852.0%1.37Season-high EPA/play
Sep 12Central ConnecticutW 63-10569234:03+0.31844.7%1.67Best defensive stand
Sep 4@Michigan StateL 20-30273116:44+0.28428.6%2.34Most explosive
Season average (8 games)4761.2+0.24343.4%1.42

Toledo's wildest games since 2013: comebacks, long shots, line misses

What’s ahead

The forecast
Offense eliteExplosive, big-playDefense elite

Season expectations

MAC title#3 in market+140

Median odds across sportsbooks · Nov 4. A number with a minus is the favorite: −130 means $130 wins $100. A plus is the underdog: +170 means $100 wins $170.

Today’s games across college football

What fans said

What fans said

W 45-38 vs Western Michigan

Toledo fans
r/CFB
“Toledo is undefeated when playing with a toxic cloud.”
1w ago
r/CFB
“There's a prophecy somewhere that states that Toledo needs to lose at least one embarrassing game per season.”
1w ago
Western Michigan fans on Toledo
r/CFB
“> Never thought I’d see moral victory Whittingham.”
1w ago

Real posts about each game (they name the opponent, a player or a play), chosen by community score · usernames not shown

The games that decide the season

The games that decide the season

Fri Nov 20Battle of I-75vs Bowling Green · at home

Recent form · last 10 games

Toledo has won four of its last five.

7-3 over the last 10, and won the last two.

Streak W2Last 5 · 4-1Last 10 · 7-3
1 storyline developing

What Toledo’s coaching hire is really about

The open questioncan a new staff change the trajectory?

Coachingthis cyclenew

Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.

What happenedMike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Robert Weiner.
The contextreplaces 11-year head coach Jason Candle (81-44)

Statusfront page

How past storylines here turned out

ReplacedToledo moved on from that hire — a new coaching change began the following season. See who's next →
AnsweredToledo's climb into dynasty-caliber territory held for another season.
Died downToledo's defensive coordinator change has died down — no clear next chapter yet.

Written by our model from the storyline records. It can get facts wrong.

Range of outcomes · Toledo · 2026

Toledo’s most likely regular season is 9-3. 98% of outcomes land from 8-4 to 10-2.

Regular-season wins: chance of each total, from the game chances above

7 wins 2%; 8 wins 18%; 9 wins 45%; 10 wins 34%
What a title game and a playoff run could add
Floor7-5No postseason.
Base9-4A bowl game.
Ceiling9-4A bowl game.

Bars are the chance of each regular-season win total, from our model's chance in each game left, through 8 games. Paler bars are the outer 10% at each end. The closed row comes from the season-path projection, which also plays out conference title games and the CFP.

How fans reactedreal posts and moves · tap to open
Where it stands · Toledo · Coaching

The Mike Jacobs era at Toledo: where it stands.

Mike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Robert Weiner. It is replaces 11-year head coach Jason Candle (81-44). The coverage hasn't settled, and believers and skeptics both make specific cases. The coverage is split, with specific cases for and against.

bullish, with real dissent doubt on the left, belief on the right · bigger dot, louder
Skeptics1 doubtful post
Believers7 upbeat posts
Fans: 1% volume
The saga so far~8 months old
last weekMAC title odds: +200 to +130 (the market’s chance is up 10.1 points)
last weekMAC title odds: +250 to +200 (the market’s chance is up 4.8 points)
2 weeks agoMichigan flips Toledo recruit
2 weeks agoMAC title odds: +400 to +330 (the market’s chance is up 3.3 points)
3 weeks agoMAC title odds: +185 to +380 (the market’s chance is down 14.3 points)
The cast who's driving the story · latest headline on each, attributed
Mike Jacobs Head coach
“Mike Jacobs gets 1st win at Toledo with 63-10 blowout of Central Connecticut State” — Toledo Blade · 2026-09-13
Robert Weiner Out
Mike Jacobs Announces
“Toledo Head Coach Mike Jacobs Announces Staff Additions and Promotions - University of Toledo Athletics” — University of Toledo Athletics · 2026-02-05
Mike Jacobs Officially
“Mike Jacobs Officially Introduced as Head Football Coach at Toledo” — University of Toledo Athletics · 2025-12-12
Our read
Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.
Source of record: Mike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Robert Weiner — replaces 11-year head coach Jason Candle (81-44).
Where things stand · tap to expand
Believers bullishSkeptics dissentThe Boards thinThe Dominoes active
📣Believers7 bullish/hire items making the case that it's working.›

The 'this hire changes everything' takes: new-era believers making the case early.

“Mike Jacobs gets 1st win at Toledo with 63-10 blowout of Central Connecticut State”
Toledo Blade · Sep 13 · read ↗
“Toledo head football coach Mike Jacobs sinks putt at Greater Toledo Classic Pro-Am”
WTOL · Jul 17 · read ↗
“Former Ohio State Offensive Lineman Mike Jacobs Drawing from Teachings of Jim Tressel, John Cooper As Toledo’s New Head Coach”
Eleven Warriors · Jul 15 · read ↗
🧐SkepticsLeading counter: “3 questions for Toledo football in head coach Mike Jacobs' 1st…”.›

The 'show me the body of work' counter: resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.

“3 questions for Toledo football in head coach Mike Jacobs' 1st offseason”
Toledo Blade · Jan 7 · read ↗
💬The boards3 board mentions, too few to call a stance.›

Only 3 of 419 board posts mention it, below our floor for calling a community stance. The posts are shown for texture only.

"Toledo will happily take back a slightly used Matt Campbell after some p4 school hires away Mike Jacobs."
r/CFB ~ fan take
"Hey all. I spent the offseason building a full 2026 preseason preview for every FBS team, each with its own writeup. Here's the Toledo one ["
r/UToledo ~ fan take

Board posters are a vocal, self-selected slice of the fanbase.

🔗The dominoes15 downstream moves tied to the hire.›

The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.

“Michigan Football Flips Toledo Recruit”
Yahoo Sports · Oct 21 · read ↗
“Michigan football flips 2027 wide receiver commitment from Toledo”
Yahoo Sports · Oct 20 · read ↗

More in this tab

This week and this season

Worth watchingGames average 63 combined points, shootouts

What it is like to watch them2026 · 6-2

Game feel63shootoutscombined pts / game1st highest-scoring of 13 in the Mid-American
Heart rate2-0some dramain one-score games (2 of 8)9th most one-score games of 13 in the Mid-American
Margin+12.0comfortableavg scoring margin1st best margin of 13 in the Mid-American
Tempo71uptempooffensive plays / game2nd fastest of 13 in the Mid-American
Big plays1.42highlight reelexplosiveness (IsoPPP)1st most explosive of 13 in the Mid-American
Home crowd21,635avg attendance2nd biggest crowds of 13 in the Mid-American

Measured from 8 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season

Team storyThe story of this team right now, in one line.
The weekly grind

Toledo is the MAC's quiet machine — a Glass Bowl program that has won more than almost anyone in the conference for fifty years — and now it's starting over, after Jason Candle became the school's winningest coach ever and promptly left for UConn.

Title DroughtSince 2022 · 4 yrs

Fans know the drill — the national conversation treats the MAC as a place big jobs go shopping for coaches, and Toledo as the supplier rather than the contender. They want the new staff to prove the…

Read the full program story ↓
Game-day weatherKickoff-time weather at home, and the forecast in game week.

Toledo · Game-day weather

Typical at Glass Bowl: kickoff time makes little difference, scores run 88 to 90

  • noon: 90, Comfortable
  • 3:30 pm: 88, Mixed
  • 7:30 pm: 88, Mixed

Typical weather score at each kickoff time.

Tap a dot to read it.

At kickoff, 113 regular-season Saturdays at each kickoff time, 2018 to 2025. Typical means the average of those Saturdays. It is not a forecast.

Weather score: 0 to 100, higher is better, for the first 3 hours and 20 minutes of the game. Ideal is 100, Comfortable 90 to 99, Mixed 75 to 89, Rough 50 to 74, Harsh under 50.

Game dayWhat a Saturday in this stadium actually feels like.
The experience

Toledo is the MAC program whose 1969-1972 35-game unbeaten streak + Glass Bowl venue + the Jason Candle era (2015-2024, 10 seasons) define what historic-MAC-stalwart looks like, now under new coach Mike Jacobs (hired Dec 2025, after Robert Weiner's 2025 interim season).

Offense: EliteStyle: Explosive, big-playDefense: Elite
Open questionsThe unresolved questions this season keeps asking.

The story

Read the Toledo story →
Program ledgerEvery dated move on this program's record, newest first.

The program ledger

since 2025
  • 2026Hired Mike Jacobs
  • 2025Robert Weiner departs (interim)0-1
  • 2025Jason Candle departs81-44
  • 2025Hired Robert Weiner (interim)

Roster and recruiting

Roster66% of production back, talent #116

Roster reload: Toledo

2026 snapshot, Nov 4
Returning Production66%High continuity
Talent Composite#116 nationally247 composite 556.3
Portal Additions33Primary repair: CB
Portal Losses38Primary pressure: LB
Draft Loss2NFL Draft departures (2)
Recruiting Reload#121Depth class
WRin 4 - Rico Bond3.60out 6 - Ryder Treadway3.50Starter Risk
current room: 189 lbs avg (2025 roster)
CBin 6 - LaDavion Osborn3.50out 3 - Amare Snowden3.50Need Filled
current room: 187 lbs avg (2025 roster)
IOLin 3 - Ahmad Carwise3.50out 5 - Anthony Boswell3.80Starter Risk
current room: 302 lbs avg (2025 roster)
EDGEin 4 - Andrew Zock3.50out 4 - Malachi Davis3.60Even
current room: 245 lbs avg (2025 roster)
LBin 1 - Kari Jackson3.50out 5 - K'Von Sherman3.60Starter Risk
current room: 229 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Sin 2 - Armorion Smith3.50out 3 - Braedyn Moore4.28Downgrade
current room: 197 lbs avg (2025 roster)
Roverhits like a linebacker and still takes the ball away
Third program
Full roster (142 players)
UNKAndrew Zock, CJ Miller, Caden Camese, Cam Jones, Donovan Watkins, Isaac Prince, Israel Petite, Julian Fox, KJ Thomas, Ladavion Osborn, Peyton Strickland
CBAndrew Wilson-Lamp, Bo Jacobs, Clarence Tucker, Clarence Tucker, Hyajah Miller, Nasir Bowers
DBArmorion Smith, Tyrell Russell
DEBrian Stovall Jr., Desmond Okantey, Ezra Odinjor, Josh Lee, Louce Julien, Samuel Toniolo, Travion Ford, Zach Johnson, Zackery Samuel
DLCameron Gwinn, Jordin Farrow, Leonard Sharp, Lucas Lambert, Wayne Peart II
DTAdrian Love Jr., Bryant Weatherspoon Jr., Doran Ray, Laith Shamma, Martez Poynter, Micah Fils-Aime, Nate Chandler, Tyrell O'Neal, Tyrell O'Neal
EDGEBen Sahakian
KReice Griffith
LBDamon Ollison II, Hayden Roy, Isaac Zay, Jeremiah Peters, Jordan Fox, Kari Jackson, Langston Long, Maddox Arnold, Nathan Gersh, Owen Gibbs, Sam Smith Jr., Tanner Rubinstein, Tommy Huss
LSMatthew Bailey, Max Allen, Reece Strittmatter
OLAhmad Carwise, Ameer Yasin, Brian Keane, Brian Mahoney, Cade Wilhelmi, Carter Fouty, Christian Medlock, Cole Rhett, Dominic Johnson, Dylan Senda, Ethan Spoth, Grant Zimmerly, Ibrahim Traore, Jacob Kropchak, Jake Grimm, Jake Palucki, Jonathan Harder, Luke Rector, Maddox Marcotte, Matt Hofer, Nick Thomas, Preston Dazey, Preston Dazey, Stephen Gales, Vincenzo Pizzo, Vincenzo Pizzo
PHunter Probst, Markus Meincke
PKAnthony Ruggles, Emilio Duran
QBJake DeHaan, John Alan Richter, Khamoni Robinson, Tucker Gleason, Walter Moses
RBAutavius Ison, Connor Walendzak, Corey Smith, Dane Nauman, Kadale Williams, Lucas Laroche, Mike Drennen II, Noah Sanders, Willie Shaw III
SAndrew Fineske, Dylan Hohler, Eric Williams, Jaden Dottin, Kaleb Hutchinson, Michael-Arinze Ezirim, Mo Conteh, Nicholas Thompson, Sharard Vaughn III, Tyler Hackenbracht, Ziiyahn Blair, Ziiyahn Blair
TECC Ezirim, Connor Jones, Donivon Thomas, Ethan Malafa, Jacob Petersen, Maximus Howard, Sam Lee, Sean Persson, Tucker Kelleher
WRAdjatay Dabbs, Anthony Simpson, Bryson Hammer, Cooper Rusk, Daryl Barnett Jr., Deshaun Williams, Eric Holley, Jacob Newell, Junior Vandeross, Kalvin Gilbert Jr., Omar Mims Jr., Rico Bond, Seth Elchert, Tashi Braceful, Terrell Crosby Jr., Thomas Zsiros, Trenton Jones
Top commits

Top 1 commits

2027 class
★★★☆☆
LJ Funk
QB · Nashville, TN
#1636 national
Recruiting buzzWhat fans say about the incoming class right now.

Recruiting and portal buzz

2027 Unranked ATH Kent Staten commits to Toledo
20 upvotes · Jun 2026
2027 3* IOL Barrett Bray commits to Toledo
17 upvotes · Jun 2026

Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months

Fans and ratings

Fans vs. the lineWhere fans and the betting market read this team differently.
Fan vs. market↑
100th
Fan mood
(percentile among FBS)
7.5
Sportsbook win total
(57th among FBS)
Fans 43pp more bullish than market implies
Win total consensus · 3 books
RivalsRival pulse: Northern Illinois bullish, NIU-Toledo Bowling Green bullish

Rival pulse

Northern Illinois
Bullish
+22
NIU-Toledo
Bowling Green
Bullish
+31
Battle of I-75

Fan mood index · most recent r/CFB data

More

Current chapterThe story this season is telling right now.
5
Coaching hire

Mike Jacobs takes over at Toledo

Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.

The jury's still out.
FollowThe team's own sites, its reporters and its podcasts.

Follow Toledo

Each link was checked against two outside sites.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site