Mid-American · Mike Jacobs, year 1 (1-1) · Glass Bowl · 26,038 · 18,435 avg in 2026
LastW 63–10 vs Central Connecticut · Sat Sep 12 · John Alan Richter 252 pass yds, 3 TD, 1 rush yds
Nextvs Temple · Sat Sep 19 · 3 pm ET · Glass Bowl · Toledo by 6 · series 7-3, won the last 2 · Game preview
Updated Tue Sep 15 · through week 2
| Wk | Date | Us | Opp | Line | Opponent | Result | Record | Conf |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 | #48 | #170 | +10= | @Michigan State | L 20–30 124 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2 | Sep 12 | #49 | #192 | -36.5✓ | Central Connecticut | W 63–10 134 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 3 | Sep 19 | #48 | #90 | -6 | Temple | |||
| 4 | Sep 26 | #48 | #46 | San Diego State | ||||
| 5 | Oct 3 | @Ball State | ||||||
| 6 | Oct 10 | Buffalo | ||||||
| 7 | Oct 17 | @Eastern Michigan | ||||||
| 8 | Oct 24 | Western Michigan | ||||||
| 10 | Nov 4 | @Sacramento State | ||||||
| 11 | Nov 11 | Massachusetts | ||||||
| 12 | Nov 21 | Bowling Green | ||||||
| 13 | Nov 27 | @Ohio |
| Date | Opp | Result | Yds | TO | TOP | EPA/play | Success% | Explosive% | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 12 | Central Connecticut | W 63–10 | 569 | 2 | 34:03 | +0.348 | 44.7% | 167.5% | |
| Sep 5 | @Michigan State | L 20–30 | 273 | 1 | 16:44 | +0.284 | 28.6% | 234.5% | |
| Season average (2 games) | 421 | 1.5 | +0.316 | 36.7% | 201.0% | ||||
Toledo is the MAC's quiet machine — a Glass Bowl program that has won more than almost anyone in the conference for fifty years — and now it's starting over, after Jason Candle became the school's winningest coach ever and promptly left for UConn.
Fans know the drill — the national conversation treats the MAC as a place big jobs go shopping for coaches, and Toledo as the supplier rather than the contender. They want the new staff to prove the R…
The season in chapters
What fans said
Real posts from the day of the game, chosen by community score · usernames not shown
What it is like to watch them2025 · 8-5 · last season
✓ measured from 13 games · ranks are among Mid-American teams the same season
Recent form · last 10 games · incl. 2025
Mixed. 6-4 over the last 10, and won the last one.
The communication was great from Fitz towards myself and the offensive staff and then we do our part to be ready for whatever decision that he makes and try to help the players
Next Sep 19
vs Temple · at home
~ our read on style
Market outlook
Sportsbook consensus · best odds across multiple books · 2026-09-14
the open questionwhere does it go from here?
Jason Candle enters his 9th season with an 8-5 record, anchoring Toledo's identity as a historic MAC stalwart amid evolving fanbase expectations.
our readdeveloping
Jacobs inherits a 68% production returning roster after Candle's 45-23 tenure — Toledo hasn't won a conference title since 2017, and the Glass Bowl's legacy now hinges on a new era's first step.
our readfront page
Toledo has reached elite-tier consistency — Jason Candle's three-year run is the program's peak power-rating mark in 3 years, raising stakes for sustained MAC dominance.
our readfront page
Mike Jacobs begins his tenure with an 8-5 record, but a coordinator change and uneasy fan belief signal early challenges in maintaining Toledo's historic MAC-stalwart identity.
our readdeveloping
Junior Vandeross is a legitimate money-down target -- his 3rd-down conversion rate ranks among the position's best, and his per-target value holds up in that spot too.
our readdeveloping
Junior Vandeross produces at a notably LOWER rate when his team is an underdog than when favored -- he fades when the pressure is on, and his per-target value drops too.
our readdeveloping
Chip Trayanum does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
Jacob Petersen is used almost exclusively underneath -- a low share of his targets are downfield shots.
our readbackground
Junior Vandeross: a depth dna signal screened this season.
our readbackground
Junior Vandeross does NOT see a usage spike in garbage time -- his workload holds steady regardless of score.
our readbackground
Toledo's top-28 portal class arrives with 68% production returning and just two NFL exits — Candle's sixth straight season diagnosing a roster that already looks like a Glass Bowl contender.
our readbackground
Robert Weiner inherits a 66% production returning roster and a program defined by Candle's legacy — the Glass Bowl and 35-game streak still echo, but the new era demands a different kind of resilience.
our readdeveloping
Outcome band · Toledo · 2026
Floor, base and ceiling come from the season-path projection, which plays out conference title games and the CFP — so a ceiling can run past 12 games.
Toledo: the fanbase's identity shifting.
The optimistic read: momentum, and the 'this is real' takes.
The analytical counter: rankings, results, and 'the hype is ahead of the tape' takes.
Nothing in our corpus yet — this door stays open for when there is.
This event was in 22 of 198 board posts (11%) over the last 60 days — engaged but not consumed. Fan text shown verbatim, attributed to the community not the individual poster.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
Mike Jacobs took over as Toledo's head coach, replacing Robert Weiner. It is replaces 11-year head coach Jason Candle (81-44). The room hasn't reached a verdict — believers and skeptics both have specific, competing cases. The room is split — the case for and the case against are both specific.
The 'this hire changes everything' takes -- new-era believers making the case early.
The 'show me the body of work' counter -- resume gaps, scheme fits, and 'not that guy' reads.
Only 1 of 198 board posts mention it — below our floor to call a community stance. Shown as texture, not a verdict.
The boards ≠ the fanbase: a vocal, self-selected slice.
The second-order trail: commits, decommits, portal and staff knock-on from the hire.
Fan mood index · most recent r/cfb data
More in this tab
Toledo is the MAC program whose 1969-1972 35-game unbeaten streak + Glass Bowl venue + the Jason Candle era (2015-2024, 10 seasons) define what historic-MAC-stalwart looks like, now under new coach Mike Jacobs (hired Dec 2025, after Robert Weiner's 2025 interim season).
The program ledger
since 2025Cris Reisert hired as OC
Reisert walked away from a head coaching seat to run this offense — that's not a lateral move, that's a coordinator who saw something worth chasing in what Jacobs is building at the Glass Bowl.
Mike Jacobs hired as Toledo head coach
A former Ohio State lineman pulling from the Tressel tree lands at a program that's been quietly signaling it wants to be something different — Toledo's hiring a builder, not a caretaker.
TE Tucker Kelleher transfer commits from BYU
Big-12 tight end falls to MAC — Kelleher gets the snaps, Rockets get a Power-Four body.
Top 3 commits
Recruiting Footprint · 2026
OH leads the 2026 class with 5 commits. National footprint reaching 9 states.
Where they recruit · 2023-2026
81 signees across 17 states, 2023-2026. OH leads the pull.
Miles from home · 2026 roster
The median Toledo player grew up 209 miles from campus.
Half this roster came from closer than that; half came from farther.
Straight-line distance from each player's listed hometown to Glass Bowl. Hometowns are placed at city-centroid precision, not street address — fine at this scale, but a player's true door-to-door number can differ by a few miles. 122 of 136 listed players have a geocoded hometown. Source: CFBD roster hometowns.
Top r/cfb community posts · last 12 months
Getting hands on the ball but not cashing in: 9% of disruptions converted, vs. the ~18% league rate.
1 interceptions of 11 disrupted passes (10 deflected, 1 intercepted), 2026 only.
The penalty battle is a wash: 12 penalties committed vs. 9 drawn on opponents.
84 penalty yards committed vs. 66 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.
Outcome band · Toledo · 2026
Recruiting Footprint · 2026